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Open thread 8/16/24

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  • ghostsniper August 16, 2024, 2:24 PM

    The way forward is never known for sure and can be frequented with obstacles that make no sense.

    Each day is a challenge in it’s own right and at weeks end we reflect on what has been learned and observed with the hope that the journey ahead will be easier.

    Until then….

    The Pathless Road
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WtFB_mytEE

    • DT August 16, 2024, 6:39 PM

      The way forward:
      “‘Cause when life looks like Easy Street
      There is danger at your door”

      Good tune. That photo (on the link) is of my kind of country. Could be the crossing at Flanigan, NV but probably isn’t.

  • Casey Klahn August 17, 2024, 5:50 AM

    I tried to give Sergeant Major Timmy the benefit of the doubt; I really did.

    Now, I fear he’s the Manchurian Candidate. I thought that even before becoming aware that he visited China multiple times.

    How does one just ghost the national guard – his battalion commander is the guy that matters the most, and he’s on tape saying Walz went right over his head to retire, but put “retire” in air quotes- and then reappear as the head of state in Minnesota? Clue! The Bn Cmndr is leaving a ton of data between the lines. Is Minnesota even a state anymore, or is it a wholly owned subsidiary of Iran and China?

    Let me give you a bit of good news, however. I see where Rasmusson Pollsters have said that when Kammy got her bump in the polls, the other pollsters lost interest in taking anymore polls for a few days in order to extend her honeymoon. IOW, they artificially displayed her as “up” in polling, but in actuality the MF-ers were just doctoring the numbers.

    Also election news, the dems in Pennsylvania have formed a committee to rat you out for bitching about election polling anomalies or crimes. Sound fair? No, it sounds soviet.

    In more news, see the meme where protection against covid was a toy paper mask on one’s face, but the Monkey Pox PPE is worn on one’s bottom. SnaRk…

    • ghostsniper August 17, 2024, 6:47 AM

      “…formed a committee…”
      ==================
      The Patriots in PA need to escort the committee members into the next chapter of their eternal existence.
      Yes, I’m talking about a trailer hitch.

    • azlibertarian August 17, 2024, 3:48 PM

      “…Rasmusson Pollsters….in actuality the MF-ers were just doctoring the numbers….”

      I will sometimes watch Rich Baris’ Youtube channel the People’s Pundit. Baris turned being a pollster-nerd into a business, and now he does polls for whoever will pay him [which, BTW, makes him no different than any other pollster.] There’s lots that goes into polling. For example….
      * How many people do you poll?
      * Where do they live?
      * What day of the week and time of the day do you poll?
      * Demographics. Men vs Women; Young vs Old; One race vs another. You can get as granular as you want.
      * Cell phone vs Landline vs Face-to-Face.

      And Baris has explained that there are all these biases that have to be accounted for.

      My point in bringing this up is that I’m not convinced that polling is good for anything other than water-cooler or comment-thread discussions. Every pollster has an employer. And you know what? That pollster is going to find a way to make the data tell the employer what the employer wants to hear. When he does that, he gets asked to poll again (read: “get paid”) next week or next month.

      And then, the pollsters are very competitive with each other. This guy hates that guy because that guy uses a totally inaccurate method of polling. They change their methods and go on to other clients. You brought up Rasmussen. Scott Rasmussen left the company that bears his name–Rasmussen Reports–in 2013. [Digressing: That 2013 article from TNR–a left-leaning publication–was written by Nate Cohn, who today writes on elections and polling for the NYT. He is not to be confused with Nate Silver, who is a pollster who founded the website FiveThirtyEight.] Anyway, Scott Rasmussen may have a very different view than expressed by Rasmussen Reports, depending on who the clients are today.

      Regarding polls, any time I see a poll that tells me, nationally, Trump is up 3% or Harris is leading by 1%, I completely ignore it.We don’t elect our Presidents by a national headcount. We use the Electoral College (and for good reason). In my mind, Rasmussen (either Scott or his former company) is no different than the “M-F’s” you believe are doctoring numbers. They all do it. Right now, it is a horse-race, and the polling industry is cheerleading their favorites every bit as much as you and I might be.

      • ghostsniper August 17, 2024, 5:57 PM

        AZ sed: “That pollster is going to find a way to make the data tell the employer what the employer wants to hear.”
        ==============

        IOW, they can just make shit up and nobody’s the wiser.
        IOOW, ALL polls are complete bullshit meant to sway the simple minds.

      • Casey Klahn August 18, 2024, 7:31 AM

        Well written and a good comment, az, as always. I will add that the only controlling factor in polls is that they try to be almost right in the last weeks before the election, just for the sake of selling their product in the next election. They try for a track record. I suppose another way of checking is the mean or average of all polls; you will want your results to be in the flow of all the others.

        As with any statistic, there are a myriad of ways to skew the data and the analysis. I constantly refer to that weird stat called the Bellweather Counties, and how they were all, all of a sudden, wrong when Biden beat Trump. It was an impossible inconsistency, and makes you wonder if maybe Biden cheated. He did, of course.

        Counter to the polls are many anecdotal pieces of evidence that anyone with a brain can understand. Kamala’s sudden turn-around from being almost sh!tcanned from the Biden ticket, to now out-polling Biden. Freaking boat parades and large outdoor rallies for Trump, and Kamala gets a crowd occasionally now, but other times she gets nothing. Trump is very pro-American and American values, and Harris is a commie. People see these things and then they look at the polls and wonder how in the hell?

        On another note, I am taking great care to always know how to pronounce Kamala, and then to always mis-pronounce it.

        • ghostsniper August 18, 2024, 8:54 AM

          I consistently pronounce it ho.

  • DT August 17, 2024, 7:15 PM

    DNC Week. Time to lay the cards down. I still wouldn’t put much money down on Kameltoes being the candidate this time next week. Wouldn’t put much down on her not being on the ticket either.

    Just so much ugliness about her, her VP, and her proposals that either this whole couple of weeks has been a false flag – or they’re so confident of winning that the choice of … someone that makes FJB look not-at-the-bottom-of-the-list … is a slap in the face of the American public: “we can do what we want; doesn’t matter who you run against us”.

    I still lean towards Big Mike being on the ticket but I’m really leaning towards “it doesn’t really matter” if it’s not Trump come January.

    • ghostsniper August 17, 2024, 7:37 PM

      DT sed: “it doesn’t really matter”
      ======================
      Agreed.
      If I have to I’ll just do more of what I already am.
      The oval office doesn’t exist as far as I’m concerned.
      Now, the local tyrants…..that’s another situation all together.

  • Snakepit Kansas August 18, 2024, 5:20 AM

    The sand reminds me of the Great Sand Dunes in southern CO near Mosca. I have successfully hunted cow elk there in the past and plan on going there again this fall. Me and and old Winchester Model 70 Supergrade will make this hunt.

  • ghostsniper August 18, 2024, 12:48 PM

    Chicago PD going on sick leave as DNC convention approaches.
    (if they were smart they’d never go back)

    The Democratic Party has its National Convention in Chicago starting on Monday, August 19th. Ahead of the convention, it seems they are expecting a lot of anti-Israel / Antifa Protestors gathering along with a surge of Illegal aliens. You all will recall the Democrats were also famously behind the entire ‘Defund The Police’ movement. It looks like with all of the chaos predicted over 1000 officers have gone to medical including Commander Yakimba Phillips, head of Chicago’s 2nd district, with his claim reportedly being PTSD.

    Who would want to put their life on the line knowing how officers have been treated even in the best of circumstances and much less people when the people they are supposed to protect ‘Led the charge’ to defund them and are probably responsible for some of the horrid working conditions they have been facing? We are not implying that is the ONLY reason so many have suddenly become ill. We are simply saying it could have been a small piece of the pie.

    Over 1,000 Chicago Police officers have reportedly gone to medical over the weekend, including Commander Yakimba Phillips (claiming PTSD), who is the boss of Chicago Police’s 2nd District.

    Why would the people that the Democrats have allowed to destroy and terrorize college campuses and large cities since the summer of ‘ Fiery but mostly peaceful’ protests want to cause chaos at the convention for the party that loves them? Seems the answer is the same as it has always been, you can never be far enough Left for the Faction of Democrat voters who seem to be the loudest.

    There is no reason to frame it as if they have abandoned anyone! It looks to us that they know what is coming and have not been given the tools to do the job they are being asked to do. Democrats might finally have to acknowledge the consequences of their rhetoric and actions.

    We do not want anyone to be in harm’s way but that may be impossible. So many angry people in one place without a police force with proper tools and authority to keep the peace is pretty scary.

    Yep, you are seeing Democrats putting walls around the convention area. The same Democrats who say walls don’t work.

    While we do not wish for anyone to get hurt, the fact the Democrats may finally have to face some of what they created is not the worst news we ever heard.

    They propped up the protestors and made them think they were invincible and could get what they wanted if they destroyed enough stuff and screamed enough.

    Democrats with Harris in the driver’s seat as ‘border czar’ created a mess with the number of illegal aliens inside the country so they could gather in a group in a ‘sanctuary city’ like Chicago.

    Democrats, again with people like Kamala, supported defunding police departments.

    With all of that, if Democrats get a convention that is annoying and forces them to yell over some fiery but mostly peaceful groups of people, we are not mad about it. (Again, we do not wish for anyone to get hurt.)

    https://twitchy.com/artistangie/2024/08/18/chicago-police-getting-sick-ahead-of-the-dnc-n2399782

    • azlibertarian August 18, 2024, 3:53 PM

      …Chicago PD going on sick leave as DNC convention approaches.
      (if they were smart they’d never go back)….

      […snip…]

      …Over 1,000 Chicago Police officers have reportedly gone to medical over the weekend, including Commander Yakimba Phillips (claiming PTSD), who is the boss of Chicago Police’s 2nd District….

      A couple’o responses, one short, the other longer.

      * As I have mentioned in the past, I apply what I call my “60% Rule” to everything I read on the internet, regardless of whether I agree with it or not. In regards to this Twitchy article (which, BTW, carries an obvious bias), I ask the following questions: “Is the Chicago PD engaging in a “Blue Flu” walkout?” Maybe. But maybe not too. This article might be some click-bait that Twitchy is using to push a narrative that confirms their biases. “Has this flu claimed 1000 officers?” 60% Rule. “Is Commander Yakimba Phillips genuinely suffering from PTSD to the point that she can’t do her job, or is she making a statement to the City of Chicago?” I have no way to know…..my 60% Rule stands.

      * But to my longer response…..

      As I’ve said, back before I retired, I was an airline pilot at a major national airline. What this means is that like the Chicago police officers, I was a member of a union. There is a small, but very significant part of these unions that many miss…..regardless of company, these unions are legally structured as Associations. I am not a lawyer, and I don’t play one on the internet, but one of the most important parts of being a member of an Association is that the members of an association can be held individually responsible for actions taken by the group (this applies to your HOA too).

      And unionized transportation workers differ from unionized workers in other industries in this important way: They are governed by the Railway Labor Act. Under normal circumstances, a contract will be agreed to between a union and a company. But one of the unique aspects of RLA-governed contracts is that they don’t “expire”, but instead “become amenable”. What this means is that when the term of a contract reaches it’s end, both the company and the workers have to continue the status quo until a new contract is agreed to.

      The problem that unionized workers in transportation industries frequently have is that, because the company can just keep you at your same wage and working conditions for seemingly forever, the companies have no real incentive to negotiate productively. This can lead to great frustration among the workers.

      A RLA-governed union can’t strike until being released to strike by the National Labor Relations Board. The real-life facts of the matter is that the NLRB isn’t going to release any union from even a medium-sized company to strike. As in “ever”. An airline strike will simply introduce too much disruption to every other part of the economy.

      So what do you do? Well, a union will put up informational picket lines. They do this in the hopes that enough of the travelling public will notice and say: “The pilots at [fill-in-the-blank] airline are unhappy, so maybe I should book my next trip on a competitor.” You can also “Work-to-Rule”, by which is meant that you do what you’re paid to do, but not one thing more. No more pleasantries and no more greeting the passengers with a bright, shining face. You have to work, but you don’t have to be happy about it. I knew one guy who refused to get a haircut until his chief pilot made him to.

      Anyway, back in the day, the contract negotiations between my former company and my union was completely stalled. There were great gaps between what the company was offering and what the union would accept. Both sides were dug in.

      How do we get things moving? I hate to paraphrase Ilhan Omar, but “some guys did some things”. These guys found a way to, collectively, Work-to-Rule in a way that drove the pilot labor costs up dramatically. This feature was well within our then-current contract, but it only got expensive for the company if a great majority of the pilots did the same thing at the same time. Discussions were had in the cockpits, posts were made on our Forums and electronic bulletin boards, and when someone acted against the group, names were named. These names weren’t quite considered to be scabs, but were shunned none-the-less.

      And it worked. The company took notice right away. Hundreds of flights were cancelled disrupting the travel plans of tens of thousands of passengers.

      And then, the company escalated….they took the union (remember, an airline union is an “Association”) to court. They showed the court enough that the court issued both a Temporary Restraining Order and an Injunction against the Association. Each of the union leadership at the time, as well as several grass-roots proponents of this action (I know several personally) had a very loud knock on the door at 2am, after which they were served with papers telling them to preserve their computers and other devices. Ultimately, if memory serves, the Court issued, and then stayed, a substantial fine against the Association (tens of millions of dollars, IIRC). This stayed fine becamed something that had to be negotiated away in our next contract negotiations.

      So my union’s version of a “Blue Flu” worked……right up until it didn’t.

      Back to the Chicago PD…..

      First of all, fundamentally, I don’t like any unions in public-sector employee groups. This is especially true for police, fire, and other public safety groups. But secondly, if the Chicago police officers are engaged in a Blue Flu, then I think that the City of Chicago has an out here. They can, and should go to a court and attempt to stop this concerted and illegal act. The citizens of Chicago deserve the police to be at work and not making a statement with their sick leave.

      • ghostsniper August 18, 2024, 5:34 PM

        Inneresting.

        Again, I ain’t the messenger – just the deliverer. lol
        If I see something interesting I’ll pass it along.
        Possibly someone (like you) will contribute some clarity.
        Regardless, this coming week maybe exciting, or more.

        • azlibertarian August 18, 2024, 8:36 PM

          …Regardless, this coming week maybe exciting, or more.

          While I wish an embarrassing disaster for the Democrats at their convention, I also hope that no one tries to take a shot at anyone.

    • DT August 18, 2024, 4:15 PM

      Won’t be the same without the gang of 68.

  • ghostsniper August 18, 2024, 2:03 PM

    Would somebody be so kind as to tell me how this thing works?

    https://tinyurl.com/2zv7be2m

    • azlibertarian August 18, 2024, 8:45 PM

      ….uniquely designed for use as a water pipe after emptied and rinsed.

      I’ve long thought that whiskies are marketed to (primarily) men in similar ways as perfume is marketed to women: The name and bottle are as important to sales as the product inside.

      YMMV, but when I want a new whisky, I buy a new whisky. If I ever decide that I want a water pipe (and no, I don’t know how they work.), I’ll go out and get a water pipe.

      • ghostsniper August 19, 2024, 3:20 AM

        Not being familiar much with these flavored whisky’s, I thought the cherry flavor was in the smaller part of the bottle, hence the different cap, and the whisky was in the big part of the bottle. So I didn’t understand how they would “mix”. Now, I believe the 2 parts flow together internally. Clever, I guess.

        From long ago I know how a water pipe works and let me tell you the cleaning of the thing is far more work than it’s worth. For the past 20 years the cool kids have been using 2 home depot 5 gallon buckets to create a “gravity bong” that obliterates whole squadrons of people in minutes and the cost is minimal. When done just sit the buckets at the curb for pick-up on Tues. lol

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