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UPDATED FROM JUNE: Casey Klahn Goes Walkabout on China at War [Bumped for the discussion in the comments]

Indian painting showing the Battle of the Little Big Horn from the victors’ viewpoint.

In Required Reading: Sarah Hoyt Lets Us All Know Where We Are Now Mr. Klahn observes:

The first terrain walk I ever took my young son on, was at the Little Big Horn (Custer’s Last Stand). There was a phalanx of tourists surrounding a park ranger who was spewing the official story, but I told my son “come on; we’re going to look at the terrain.” There it all was – so easy to read. Custer had the most defensible ground, a small tit of earth, and the Indians filtered up the small draws and depressions, on their bellies, and were shot at carbine range (that is close range – 50 meters at the most). The cavalrymen were overwhelmed by Mass, but at any rate, the whole battle is a study in maneuver. We think we’re too smart nowadays for maneuver. Fukthat.

I told you that to tell you this: my son and I looked at the map of China and did a terrain analysis. If you clear the horseshit out of your brain for a moment, you’ll be surprised by physical facts.

China’s position in the world is tenuous, at best. Its location and surroundings are frikkin dank. Backed up against the largest mountain mass and highest plateau in the world, it has both a defensible backdoor and an obvious direction of maneuver: towards the Pacific. No one’s going to hike over The Hump and attack them.

So, China is a godawful collection of coastal urban-blight and big rivers and fantasy mountain upswells. All exposed to the sea. Arable land but teeming with people. Their people are a liability as much as an asset militarily. Those chinamen have it out for the commies, maybe more than anyone else.

They’ve been handled like imbecilic puppies in the puppy mill of history. Beat around by the Japanese, the western powers, the Russians. Everyone hates them; they have no friends. Look at the map. Japan, Korea, the PI, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, NZ, Australia…all out to dropkick China into the abyss of history if given just half a chance. Taiwan? Is that an asset to the Chinese? More like a third rail. The backchannel news (not saying this is true, but the idea is valid) has it that their one aircraft carrier limped off the ocean on fire from an engine accident. We beat their hordes purple in the Korean conflict with our massive firepower, and they remember that.

All of this to say that China is a threat on many levels, but ultimately, short of a nuclear wound, they are much, much smaller than their britches. They’re retarded. Retards with nukes, and viruses.

My prediction is that no one would seriously want to fight on the landmass of China. Naval war is only an adjunct – not a decision-making move. If you think it’s an air force war, I need to slap you on the head and take you out behind the shed. Actual military opportunities are to force China to create a national objective, and then we deny them that objective. This puts us in the defense seat, not them. They excel and require the defense. Deny them that.

Any kinetic opportunities lie on the southern flank of China, which is Vietnam, Burma (or whatever they call themselves), and Thailand. Watch what China does there – it’s the most important place. Their national objective is to retain their commie power structure, and absolutely everything in the entire world is against that. What did Trump do? He actually (write this shit down, pilgrim) attacked them at the center of their power: their economic ties with the world. Nixon may have engaged China, but a hundred years from now it’ll be Trump’s initiative that wrote the beginning of the end for China.

That was the turdliest pandemic I ever experienced. What else ya got, Mao?

Out here.

Casey Klahn June 6, 2021, 8:09 AM

Trans: “We must liberate Taiwan!”

Casey Klahn October 11, 2021, 6:34 PM

I’ve been waiting for the chance to be on-topic with my next China installment. The last thread was called Walkabout, which was a strategic reading of China just from a map analysis. IOW, it was the highest possible altitude look I was capable of taking by applying von Clausewitz and my limited but professional army training. That was here: https://americandigest.org/casey-klahn-goes-walkabout-on-china/

The next level below a strategic analysis is an Operational Analysis, which is to look at how the war would play below the political level, and at the grand army level. The military shit, but at its highest order. Also, from the map.

When you look on YouTube for this kind of analysis, you get a lot of whiz-bang footage of missile ships and jet aircraft flying, Chinamen loading on and off of boats, and in the end, you know less than you did going into the video about a potential attack on Taiwan. Everything you need to get started for your happy little journey into hell is available by looking at Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the WestPac on a map.

Remember that our strategic analysis was basically: China HAS no friends. One simply cannot fight a war, especially one of global import, without allies. China may have trade partners and some very creepy simps, but actually, no one to stand with them. To their back is the highest mountain range in the world, and some fukn hot deserts and high plateaus, and godless nations lay beyond. To their front, is a large seascape filled with a fence of pissed-off and very unfriendly nations, almost all of whom we have fought as Americans. Japan, Korea, The Philippines, Vietnam. We’ve been there, and we’ve done that. What sort of wars have the Chinese been fighting? Nothing since their Vietnam war – they fought ‘Nam after they helped them. They are the ultimate Blue Falcons.

We’ve done that. With amphibious armadas the likes of which the world has never seen: thrown across the Pacific with might, supplies, big stinky navy seamen and marines, multiple battlewagons, carriers and submarines. Most of that is gone but what we do deploy now is a behemoth compared to what China fields. One carrier? maybe some in keel and maybe a helicopter carrier or two?

Amphibious warfare. Our history of being shore attackers is more interesting for all the alley-fights that came before D Day, in Normandy. We made every possible error one could make, and then we shined for the last year and a half of WWII as the penultimate shore invasion force. While I’m saying this, I want you to apply the same to carrier operations: one does not simply go out on carriers and fly planes from them. It is a long apprenticeship. Now we are experts.

OK, back to Taiwan. The sea battle will take place SW of Taiwan. Look at the map and note how it is a bottleneck for any Chinese naval forces wishing to maneuver. Surface battle is maneuver warfare. O look! Here come the Aussies (all of a sudden we like them for the near term, again) and the Brits! Perhaps the New Zealanders. The Chinese will probably bump into one another trying to open up an invasion lane onto Taiwan.

The war for Taiwan will be a naval war, which is an anachronism, to be sure. However, the concept that China will have to adopt will be to get ashore before anyone can react. They will need to harness, to “become” surprise. They will need to use secrecy. Surprise and Secrecy are 2 critical principles of war (Clausewitz), and Probably the Chinese can succeed with that. Look at the virus. Look at a Chinaman. You can never tell what he’s thinking (never play him in cards). Look at our intelligence services. O, God! You get the picture: at the operational level, our CIA is probably building the enemy a bridge to Taiwan.

OK, we are looking at the potential kinetics; who knows what the politicians are thinking, anyway? That’s outside of my pay grade. Naval battle, secret shore attack. Oh, you think the air forces will be decisive? Really? Taiwan is a big swelling rock and mostly a sea mountain, with some crowded urban areas facing towards China. The East side of the island looks like it basically drops into the ocean, and has sparse urbanization. Everything decisive will happen on the West, China-facing side. No, you cannot bomb everything from the sky (it’s physics). The air force never decided a war, and they are daily butthurt over this. Sorry, aviators. let the navy and the army lift the weight. I don’t actually know what the put-ashore will entail, aviation-wise. I suppose the idea will be to get in to the beaches before allied aviation can arrive, and to jam the shit out of their electronics and hope for the best. Anyway, as I said, it’s fun to watch jets bomb shit, but let’s get back to the war.

China gets ashore, with huge losses everywhere and at all times. It’s a matter of waves of seaborne, and a bit of air-inserted, infantry. Scared shitless, immature, Chinese infantry. Still, with somewhere like 80-100 miles of sea to traverse from China to Taiwan, they will put ashore, if they can convince their troops to pile up dead upon dead because they will be taking it in the ass from allied army, navy, and air. I can visualize some hotshot allied troops putting ashore as a counter to the Chinese army because moving around in the airspace is a losing proposition.

But, they won’t be able to sustain being ashore. They may capture and even level the Taiwanese capitol, but their army will basically stand on rubble. the object of dominating Taiwan may be to literally destroy it. Hmmm. OK, maybe they can accomplish that.

That was fun. When we used to do command and communication exercises at Ft Lewis, WA, the exercise would always end with the universal sign of a plus with an open center and a dot in the center of it. That is the military map symbol for Nuke! Then, we’d get in our cars and go straight to the O Club for beer and steak.

Summary: China will have to go balls out in a withering hellstorm of missiles, bullets, and artillery shells to get on Taiwan, and their only operational thesis will be: destruction. If they do it, they must win or it’s curtains for China. From a maneuver standpoint, they have a simple task but it is fraught with danger, and their only hope is subterfuge, surprise, and security (political and technological ass-covering).

Beer me.

Casey Klahn October 12, 2021, 12:09 AM

Taiwan.

Beach: estrange and divide the beach approaches with clutter. Make infantry movement nearly impossible; physically hard and very costly emotionally.

Shallow water: It’s a highly active CEW (counter electronic warfare) environment. In order to get missiles on boats, you need guidance. So, the Chinese will harden their counter to missiles, but then the counter to that is: small boats. Add to that unmanned boats and drones. Suck on that, China. It is rather hard to deliver follow-on waves when you cannot navigate around the wreckage.

Deepwater: Try to fight the Anzacs, the Brits, the Japanese, and the US Navy all at the same time, in constricted space. We stand off: you sally forth. Fuck you.

Airspace: who cares? The Chinese will be trying to advantage the air battle, but playing keep-up and defense the whole time. The overall advantage goes to the defense, and their air arm needs to cripple all other air forces in order to deliver. They will try to protect their initial landings but will do it sacrificially.

Underwater: uhhhhhh. uhhhhh. I notice they did cripple one of our attack subs this past week with an “unknown” collision in the SCS. Interesting. It doesn’t matter because we can stand off with missile boats. Attack subs only support the surface fleet, and the allied surface fleet has the maneuver advantage. Suck it, China.

Space: any questions?

Intel: We lose in this arena.

Unified command and national command: we suk.

Logistics: China has rather an interior line of supply, but they totally suck at tactical and operational logistics. They are very weak in this arena. Plus, they have to project supplies across that hundred miles, and I honestly don’t think they can. This puts the clock into play, and they must succeed quickly.

China is ill-advised to start this war, but stupider things have been done in history.

Comments on this entry are closed.

  • LS June 7, 2021, 1:58 PM

    Yeah, but last time I looked, Trump isn’t president. Three quarters of the federal government–elected officials and the unelected agency bureaucrats (the real power in DC)–are bought and paid for by China. Maybe that number is higher. Is there any strategic or even tactical gain by Trump that remains after the first few months of the Biden cabal? We’re at war with China and it looks like we’ve already lost. If not, then by the end of Biden’s term for sure.

  • ghostsniper June 7, 2021, 5:42 PM

    LS sed: “We’re at war with China …”
    ========
    I have no beef with china.
    My biggest enemy is this lying assed criminal US gov’t.
    It is only through them that china or any other country has access to the US.
    You shouldn’t let the media distract you so.

    • TrangBang68 October 13, 2021, 5:58 AM

      Amen to that sniper

  • Casey Klahn June 7, 2021, 6:59 PM

    Thanks for sharing my terrain walk analysis, and with lavish and accurate illustrations. It doesn’t escape me the thread you drew from the Indian depiction and the shape of China.

    I tried to take the 10,000 mile viewpoint, within my abilities and such as they are. Trump’s not president but his idea of economic warfare is what war planners call initiative. Like I said, it’s a beginning move.

    No beef with China. OK but it’s looking like the tickle virus came from them intentionally. I’m not saying it was an attack, but in theory we’re vulnerable to such a thing.

    Like I said, let China try to keep their commi-ism and their form of totalitarianism and see how far they make it. My analysis is that they have way more liabilities than they do assets. They seem to be formed of liabilities. We just gotta watch out for their nuclear bite, their piss-war with Taiwan, their aggression southward, and more bio war moves.

    What they really lack is innovation. Another analyst said that their innovation recently has been the surveillance state they’ve built, complete with social scores. It is an invention, but for evil. Yes, we have shipheads like face buhk adopting it, and Goo Gull. Yes, our criminal government and bureaucracy is in bed with China and it ain’t pretty. Be that as it may, what I discovered by looking closer is as plain as a map face. I always heard that China is big, and populous. Russia is big. Canada is big. Finland is big (yes, it has a large land mass). But, all of those are underpopulated. China is both big and crowded, but in actual play, these are fault lines so big China may crack and implode because of them.

    I like a strategy where we deny them success, and also we apply as much fail to their enterprises as possible. Too bad we don’t have a CIA for that. Better yet, an OSS.

    Time for a bourbon. I appreciate the discussion and I’m chuffed, as they say, by this post. Thanks, again.

  • Jewel June 7, 2021, 7:21 PM

    Reading the headlines all around the world today brought me to Hungary, where Viktor Orban may have sold his soul to China for filthy lucre. The Chicoms want to build a university just outside of Budapest. The formerly communised Magyars, who’ve kept out the Mohammedan armies of darkness, are now going to be told to welcome their Insect Overlords.
    Meanwhile, everywhere the Chinese have been welcomed, whether in industry or as engineers, the awful effects of letting China in Your Country are showing up on the news, regularly. Yesterday I read a list of 37 Chinese designed and built bridges, highways and structures collapsing, both in China and other countries.
    Happily for Hungary, the government had a change of mind about opening a Chinese university, after the enraged citizens immediately took to the streets to protest. It doesn’t seem that getting an engineering degree from I Spy U is a good idea. Having said that, I’m sure the Chinese are itching to try out their newly built warcraft on a weak target they might perceive in us. I hear Vancouver BC is becoming a Chinese military base.
    Interesting Times indeed!

  • Skorpion June 7, 2021, 8:46 PM

    Pretty good analysis, Casey. But why didn’t you mention China’s biggest regional rival of all: India, which shares a 300-mile long border with the PRC on its far-eastern frontier? Both countries have a billion-plus citizens, a rising middle class, vast and resource-hungry industrial sectors, huge militaries, and thanks to their boys-only population-growth measures, immense numbers of young males who will never wed or raise families. Coupled with their long historical enmity in Asia, these seem to be ingredients for a major confrontation within our lifetime.

  • Bob57 June 7, 2021, 8:46 PM

    I have an acquaintance who is tight with the leadership of the Chinese Communist party. We used to have long talks about geopolitics amongst other matters. He told me two things that I’ll never forget.
    1. The CCP is afraid of their own people. Yes they have a strong totalitarian state (that’s an understatement), but they believe the only way to keep a lid on the seething cauldron of over a billion people is the absolute control afforded by communism. If even a decent percentage of the population decides that the CCP must go, the guys with guns and tanks could be swamped by human waves. So the little bit of capitalist activity that has been allowed to grow in the country is mostly to keep the crowd at bay.
    2. Any war with China is unwinnable. It’s unwinnable for two reasons. One is that human life is not regarded as intrinsically valuable. The second is something he said: “If, in a nuclear war, we each kill 300 million of the other nation’s population, the United States will cease to exist. If you kill 300 million Chinese, you will have done us a favor.”
    It is clear that the CCP has to be taken down, but it won’t happen in any kind of conventional war. Winning will require a whole new approach. It will require a very aggressive mindset, but something well outside the ken of our patty-cake liberal defense establishment.

  • Casey Klahn June 7, 2021, 10:53 PM

    The border with India: mountains. Really, really big mountains. The biggest, in fact.

    Bob57: a great report from the horse’s mouth, apparently. Too many friggin people, and communism ain’t keeping up with them. Anarchy would do them better; perhaps to some extent it does serve to keep alive those who are surviving. There is an under layer of society that communism and government doesn’t reach, after all. A commie bureaucrat, in his small an selfish heart, really just wants the paperwork to look right. If some mice scurry underfoot, who cares?

    Any war with China is unwinnable. Hmmm. History doesn’t support that premise very well. If China shrinks as a power player, be that via kinetics, the threat of kinetics, or via an economic offensive, then the conflict with China can go our way.

  • Steve (retired/recovering lawyer) June 8, 2021, 3:20 AM

    Cogent analysis. Always good to remember the axiom that, “The map is not the terrain.” Maps have their place, but anyone with a lick of real world experience knows that knowledge of the terrain is superior to what even the best map reveals. The terrain extant in that part of the world explains why, over the centuries, China has always been insular and inward-looking. It simply can’t expand to the north or west. Deserts and mountains tend to establish borders rather quickly. The Chinese leaders understand that, so are expanding seaward as well as internationally; the first by means of slow accretion of territory in the South and East China Sea and the latter by means of a stealth envelopment of the other border, that is, the electronic frontier. Also, the Chinese leadership (not necessarily the people, who remain a reclusive lot) are emulating the path taken by all the great empires by expanding influence beyond geographical borders by means of expansionist, predatory economic policies as well. E.g., the British Empire. I am pretty sure the Chinese leadership remember what the British did to their people during the Opium War period and is using that as a template for their current realpolitik. Think fentanyl and Covid19. So, stealth biological warfare combined with an utterly chauvinistic world view, a complete disregard for human beings as individuals, lingering communist influence and the godless rapaciousness that is both cause and effect. A toxic (to rest of the world) combination for sure. Nonetheless, as a Christian, I am encouraged by recalling that this world is not my home, and as a student of history, by recalling that
    things will not always be as they are (or seem to be) at present.

  • nunnya bidnez, jr June 8, 2021, 6:52 AM

    Bob57-
    does your friend know of the Rittenbergs?
    After 35 years in China, Sidney returned to the USA, and lived close by me (in a rented room) in the suburbs of NYC. Some of his neighbors were the Asimovs (the sci-fi writer’s brother’s family; writers for the NY Times and San Fran Chronicle). Sid became quite the international business person, introducing many of America’s business elites to the absolute top of Chinese government leaders. IIRC, he was not interested to do business with Kissinger when he was called by him (Kissinger has a compound in Kent Connecticut)
    I believe all of Rittenberg’s children now live in the US (I think his son got his first job here at a McDonalds in the Bronx). Anyways, I no longer have any connections to the people who knew them, but I am wondering what they are all up to nowadays. Any insights?

  • nunnya bidnez, jr June 8, 2021, 7:36 AM

    “the map is not the terrain”

    It’s not What You Know, but Who You Know.
    The terrain, i.e. the physical environment, is not The Enemy.
    The Enemy is always >people<, not roads bridges buildings airports infrastructure.
    Maps are useful.
    knowledge of "terrain" is useful.
    knowledge of people, and their interconnections, is the most important.
    Can't tell the players without a scorecard.

  • Casey Klahn June 8, 2021, 7:57 AM

    TY, Steve, esq. Your analysis is sound, as well, and informative. I beg you to read how I began my comment with an actual terrain walk of another battlefield. This former infantryman knows that one never tries to make the terrain “fit” the map.
    An analyst said that the ChiComs are practicing a mixture of commi-ism and capitalism, but we’ve also been told that the 2 are self-negating systems and cannot exist together. That, in itself, is enough of a study to make one’s head spin. Perhaps, and this is just conjecture, they have chosen a few winners who’re allowed to practice thriving and owning and producing, but in the whole that is a privilege and not a system of economy. As I indicated in a previous comment, there are also millions and millions of bottom-dwellers who probably survive in a state of anarchy.
    I have war-gamed in my head, and on the map, the naval situation. In the end, the SoChina Sea and WestPac are a side show. I hate to break that to all the squids of the world, but naval affairs have less meaning if there’s not much physical commerce over that sea. China trades, and you mention eTrade, but everyone hates China. Someday that hate marker will be demanded by the house, and China will be left with all white chips. Trump began exactly that with his China policies. Biden wants to undo that, but as a strategy the genie is out of the bottle. Anyway, Biden’s in bed with China and everyone who happens to want an american downfall.
    I think you intimate that China will always be China. What I discovered was that the common wisdom on China is off – they are actually riddled though with weaknesses and on a major scale. OTOH, they have some semblance of economic power but by the same token that has weaknesses.
    BTW, everyone, I recently watched The Sand Pebbles for something like the fourth time. MY GGF, whose name is my middle name, was in the US Army in the Boxer Rebellion. He didn’t like it.
    Given that China holds some rickety nukes and some rusty naval power, and a fugton of armymen, and some bio-weapons labs, it pays us to keep a very, very close eye on those SOBs. Personally, I wouldn’t give them even an inch more influence in the world.

  • Sherlock June 8, 2021, 7:58 AM

    China will remain a paper tiger unless we foolishly try to invade. It would be worse than Nazi Germany invading Soviet Russia. To their credit, China has been investing massively in bunkers and an entire apparatus to keep it’s people alive if military invasion were to happen. This investment has been ongoing for over a decade.

    That said, China does have one offensive weapon that seems to have been working: subversion. China has found it’s way into most US industries for the purposes of stealing IP/state secrets (even the Pentagon according to DIA) and for implementing soft, undetectable control (ex: Hollywood). They do this because they know that in spite of our currently weak and entitled population, we in the US are innately tougher purely out of spite. Look at what happened to our then fragmented and “diverse” culture when Al Qaeda (Mossad playing dress up) pulled their 9/11 stunt: EVERYBODY in the US, black, white, poor, rich, wanted blood spilt SOMEWHERE. Very few (to include future President Trump) were against invading Iraq.

    China watched this unfold and learned that in order for the US to be defeatable, the population MUST be weakened. The population MUST be ashamed of it’s history. The population MUST be made more controllable.

    It is no accident that BLM exists, that CRT is being taught in schools now, and that Hollywood is the most degenerate it has ever been. The destruction of morals through degeneracy, the destruction of national pride through shaming in history class, and the destruction of social cohesion through race-based propaganda are all tactics that China has either introduced or capitalized on.

    Unless we have a cultural awakening, we will lose without ever knowing when it happened. Rather, a day will come when the CCP will say “kneel” and without protest, we will kneel —– oh wait, at the behest of foreign-backed BLM, we already kneel…

    “The supreme art of war is to win without fighting.”

    • james wilson October 12, 2021, 9:47 AM

      I have no doubt China is carefully manipulating and polling the island Chinese to asses their spine, and when capitulation becomes more attractive than resistance then that ship will leave port in one guise or another.

  • Joe Krill June 8, 2021, 10:21 AM

    The CCP has only one goal. World dominion. They have set about achieving this goal one step at a time, one hour at a time, one small advancement at a time. They know full well that to achieve their goal, stealth is paramount. If what I understand to be half true, they already have a well entrenched army presence here in the states. They have their spies entrenched, they have their agent provocateurs trained and compensated, they have the American population sedated with trinkets from the local 5 & dime store and they have so called learned elders (seditious elite) who are paid very well to teach our mush brained spineless youth how to think.

  • Steve (retired/recovering lawyer) June 9, 2021, 4:39 AM

    Response to Casey: Your insight is both spot-on and illuminating. I defer to your superior knowledge of the ways and wiles of the foot soldier. My understanding is that of a non-combatant who has made a habit of studying the wisdom of actual war fighters and their leaders, which is how I would characterize you. Thanks for everything. BTW, I share your enthusiasm for “The Sand Pebbles.” Does the phrase “Men stim wow” bring a smile to your lips? That’s one of my favorite scenes from the movie, for any number of reasons.

  • Annie Rose June 9, 2021, 4:59 AM

    You don’t have to physically invade your enemy if you can infiltrate them and weaken their country from within. Politicians on their payroll, others blackmailed, control of intelligence agencies, control of universities, media, social platforms, buying up of land and valuable property, insertion of curriculum to dumb down the people from a young age, importation of the majority of goods that are defective or poisonous, sending the children of the elite to study us and surpass us in business, technology, and science, and steal trade secrets, and releasing a deadly (supposedly deadly) virus every few years to cause the crashing of the economy and demoralization and hopelessness. What China has not calculated is the resilience and anger of patriots.

  • Casey Klahn June 9, 2021, 8:11 AM

    Yeah, Steve. That is a great scene in the boiler room, and craftily sets you up for what happens to SMcQ’s protege. The China movie interests me on many levels. Apparently, since it goes back to the 1920’s, it “commemorates” a hundred years of communist fukery in China. The movie predates our disappointments in Vietnam, but is an early shot by Hollywood at an anti-war statement about that war. McQueen’s character shows himself to be on an equal footing, as a man, as a sailor, and as a virtuous character, to the captain, and then tries to desert, in combat, to go over to Candice Bergen’s commie-loving cult. Just as the Shangri-La and utopian promise is in his hands, the commies come over the walls and kill the missionary, the captain and our protagonist. It’s a cool piece of drama, and interesting how 1960’s Hollywood still had to grasp reality in order to serve its audience.
    Now, Hollywood rarely serves an audience – they effectively bitch-slap their audience and then look at you as if to say: “here’s how it’s going to be, we’re better than you.”

  • ghostsniper June 9, 2021, 9:11 AM

    Most of the communists invasion force is on the USG payroll.
    The invasion has already begun.

  • Dan Patterson June 9, 2021, 10:07 AM

    I strongly agree about the chyneeze and their oddball character, and my dislike of their mercantilist engine fueled by American consumerism remains unbridled.
    The Sand Pebbles is a masterwork, though it’s been several seasons since I’ve watched it. I did not recall Jake Holman as a deserter but as a rescuer of the blind-to-reality Eckert and Jameson. I’ll have another look soon and see what else I may have missed.
    Do I remember Gavin MacCleod manning a Lewis gun and another actor with a BAR in at least one scene?
    Live Stim. Ded Stim.

  • James ONeil June 9, 2021, 11:01 AM

    For quite a while I suspected future wars would be, mostly, fought in corporate offices and boardrooms, not on the battle fields and, foolishly, felt that would be an improvement.

    China? Small potatoes, in my opinion, though I do allow one rotten potato can spoil the bushel.

    The Tech Lords, the oligarchs, the puppet masters however are running the world.

    Lockdown? As of now they have the whole world locked down. Wanna travel to Japan or even just across the border to Canada? Not allowed, blame the Bad China cold. The bad China Cold? It could have just as easily been the Fierce French Flu or the Beastly Bengal Boils. Never let a crisis go to waste and always be ready to create a crisis if one’s not available.

    The Bad China Cold’s gone, destroyed by distancing, triple masking, hand washing/wringing and DNA altering vaccines, soon to by followed by vaccine passport and all will be well.

    So! Wanna travel anywhere, vaccinated, passported, masked, bubble wrapped? Sorry Charley, you must understand G̶l̶o̶b̶a̶l̶ ̶w̶a̶r̶m̶i̶n̶g̶,̶ ̶C̶l̶i̶m̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶C̶h̶a̶n̶g̶e̶,̶ ̶C̶l̶i̶m̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶C̶r̶i̶s̶i̶s̶,̶ ̶E̶g̶g̶ ̶F̶o̶o̶ ̶J̶o̶n̶g̶ can and will destroy the world, contaminate the universe, sour mom and apple pie unless we act, decisively, now, right now! Stay home! You will buy electric vehicles with a 3 mile range, no need for you, and you, and you to travel farther!

    They, the Tech Lords, the right people, of course will trot the globe assuring that all’s right.

    Fear not, you’ll still have your say, if approved by farcebook’s factcheckers, of course. Your vote will be counted (or discounted if not in accord with the party line.)!

    Custer’s Last Stand, a defensible position but overwhelmed by Mass.

    We the masses today, locked down and held defenseless by an underwhelming force and our own inertia.

  • bob sykes June 9, 2021, 11:06 AM

    Some realism regarding China is needed. First, Deng’s economic reforms a generation ago resulted in 400 million Chinese being lifted out of poverty into world middle class standards. On a PPP basis the Chinese economy is at least one-third larger than the US’, and it is growing three times as fast as ours. Thirty percent of the world’s manufacturing capacity is in China; we have 16%. Their manufacturing sector is comprehensive, socks to Mars rovers, thoroughly modern, and highly automated. They have 70% of all the world’s 5G base stations, and their 5G is true Huawei, not the 4G+ Verizon et al. are pushing. Huawei 5G is five times faster than Verizon’s pseudo-5G, has a much wider bandwidth, and much lower latency. The Chinese are running AI on their 5G networks in factories to further automate them.

    The recently formed East Asian trading zone includes every one of our allies in the region: Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, Singapore, Philippines plus others. We are excluded, as is India (by choice of India). For ever one of those countries, China is its greatest trading partner.

    The massive BRI/OBOR system of projects is tying Asia together with a web of new highways, high speed trains, airports, electrical transmission lines, and oil and gas pipelines. These networks will tie Eurasian together, set off an explosion of economic growth. Think what our own transcontinental rail system and Interstate highway system did for us.

    Chinese nationals comprise something like 30% of the students enrolled in our graduate STEM programs, and they produce 30% of the research done by our universities. China’s own universities produce as many refereed papers in high quality journals as we do, and their entrepreneurs produce as many patents as we do.

    They have the largest navy in the world, 350 ships, most of which is very new and very high tech. The US Navy is in dire straits. There have been the Zumwalt, LCS, and Ford fiascos, wasting tens of billions of dollars, lapses in training and discipline, and wide spread maintenance failures. Chinese defenses are aimed at keeping our carriers far enough away that the air wings can not reach the Chinese mainland. All of our bases out to Guam can be brought under heavy, conventional missile attacks, making the bases non viable. Their submarine force is capable of conducting operations of our west coast, and their ICBM’s can reach every city in North America.

    And then, of course, there is the gift of all gifts that we ourselves sent them: Russia. Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Medvedev, and Putin all wanted Russia to be in NATO and the EU. We prevented that, because we feared a peer power in those alliances. Suppose we had permitted a united Europe running from Lisbon to Vladisvostok (Putin’s actual words), would anyone care about China.

    In the competition for world leadership, China has already beaten us. Now the world has to hope that we will not lash out and start a world war, a nuclear one.

  • Anonymous June 9, 2021, 11:11 AM

    Tocqueville warned the West not of China but that they could become China. We now witness our ruling class openly admiring that model. “When Europeans landed in China three hundred years ago, they found there that almost all the arts had reached a certain degree of perfection and were surprised that they had not improved beyond that point. It was an industrial nation where most scientific processes had been preserved, while science itself was dead. That explained the unusually static quality of mind of this nation. The Chinese, in following the path of their ancestors, had mislaid the reasons for the direction the latter had chosen. They still used the formula without asking why; they kept the tool but they had lost the skills to adapt or replace it. The Chinese were, therefore, not able to change anything and had to abandon any notion of improvement. The well of human knowledge had dried up and although the flow still ran, it could neither increase its volume nor change its course.
    We should not, therefore, complacently think that the barbarians are still far away for, if some nations allow the torch to be snatched from their hands, others stamp it out themselves.”

  • Kevin in PA June 9, 2021, 11:16 AM

    I refrained from commenting the first time around. First off, thanks to Casey for his military minded analysis.
    It is my position that a clear distinction needs to be made between the CCP and the Chinese people. Contrary to the assertions of the CCP, they are not one and the same. There are many unhappy people in China that do not embrace the style of governance under which they are forced to live. Yet, short of inciting a blood-bath at the hands of their ruling party, they are largely powerless to affect a change.

    Chinese military have no battle experience and I suspect if they were forced into a military engagement they would quickly crumble. The upper echelon of their military is largely populated by phony generals that “achieved” their rank through cronyism. As an example, Xi’s wife has a high military rank simply because she was a popular celebrity and she is married to dear leader. Having said that, the Chinese communists are not to be underestimated. The communist plays the long game; 5 year plan, 10 year, 50 year and 100 year. They care not if it takes generations to achieve their goal of world domination, but that is their plan.

    They have a full deep sea navy capability, they have installed nuclear missiles on the Tibetan Plateau (and think about that one – the capability to launch missiles from the highest mountain range in the world offers them an advantage that no one else has.), they have weaponized the shoals in the South China Sea. They aggress against smaller less powerful neighbors, to wit; Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, (and in violation of a U.N. court ruling) and others, as well as Japan with whom they hold long standing animosity (rape of Nanking). Also India and China have long been arch-rivals and it is there that China faces trouble. India, with similar population and antithetical toward the notion of communism is a neighbor with whom they will have to find peace….but have no intention of doing so.

    As part of their long game, they have endeavored to expand their sphere of influence globally, with a very strong focus in Africa. Africa, to the military analyst, is a jewel in terms of natural resources – gold, silver, copper, oil, etc. Additionally much of Africa has succumbed to the disease of communism and they are very easy to roll up in this power play. As well, they have embarked on an aggressive game of debtor diplomacy – they will build a seaport, airport, railhead, road, bridge, etc., for you on debt….naturally the terms are usurious and after the debtor nation can’t pay, China gets the property. Did you know that Chinese have purchased all of the real estate on both sides of the Panama Canal? Well, they have.

    And to Ghost’s point about the crooks within our own government, the CCP has bought off much of the ruling class of the West, including elected officials (not only at the national level, but also state, larger cities and counties), media, academia, tech industry, Wall St. and this is to our great shame. We should hang them before we get to the Chinese commies.

    On the matter of Taiwan; Taiwan is an embarrassment to the communists on the mainland. Why? Because since 1949, Taiwan broke away and rejected the communist rule. In so doing they entered a period of unprecedented growth under democratic rule. While Mao was starving millions during the 1950s “Great Leap forward” land reforms, Taiwan was engaged in trade with the West and they prospered. The communist promises a glorious utopia and it never materializes, simply because the system is rooted in failure. Communism violates the fundamental laws of economics. To be accurate, they are communist at the party level, but in practice they have morphed into a form a fascism in which the state has total control of all aspects of industry and production. So, there is the embarrassment factor that Beijing has promised rising wealth (and delivered to a significant degree, especially among the dominant ethic group – the Han, but there are still many in rural China that live in abject poverty).
    The communists will never show that side of the equation.
    Lastly, why does China want Taiwan so badly? Aside from the embarrassing aspects mentioned about, the real goal of this recent aggressiveness toward Taiwan is the firm Taiwan Semiconductor. As I understand it, this firm is the absolute leader in semiconductor development and China needs those chips to continue its build up of industry and military capabilities. In a recent discussion I watched (can’t remember the program) Mike Pompeo, with another guest whose name I can not remember, and Peter Theil, the discussion turned to Taiwan and it was stated by the guest that if China attacked Taiwan, Taiwan Semiconductor would have to be destroyed, in order to prevent the technology from getting into the hands of the Chi-comms.

    I believe that in 2019, China was losing the trade war to Trump and they needed something to break that. While I won’t say the virus was released intentionally, I do believe that once the virus was discovered, the CCP allowed it to spread to the rest of the world as a way of weakening particularly the United States. And it worked.

    I am doubtful anyone will ever receive any compensation from the communists, but it presents an opportunity to once and for all show that the Chinese communists are responsible for causing massive economic damage. In my view, a good starting point is to BOYCOTT THE BEIING OLYMPICS.

  • Kevin in PA June 9, 2021, 11:26 AM

    I forgot to mention a couple of item that prevent China from rising to a leadership position among the “family of nations”. First is they don’t want cooperation. They want to dominate the world.
    Next, China’s land mass is such that they do not have enough arable land to grow enough food for their 1.5 billion mouths. So, they rely on imported foods. They must. That alone is not a cause for concern to the communist. A few million dead would just ease the pressure off the ruling party. But from the point of optics, it won’t look good to the world if they start to starve their own people.
    Also, China doesn’t have enough oil/gas/coal to fuel their industry. Again, they are forced to rely on imports. Those two items along will prevent China from rising to greatness.

  • Casey Klahn June 9, 2021, 11:32 AM

    We trade with China, too. Big time. Doesn’t make the Asian or even the Eurasian trade a bulwark against kinetic war. I see China’s trade and their economy as a strategic initiative and (I think I read this in your comment, Bob) if allowed to grow even greater will be trouble for the world. Why? Because China is a communist power.

    I got this quote from Google, just now, about poverty in China. There ain’t any!! HFS that commi-ism works like a charm. Here’s what Googull says:
    In 2020, the Chinese government announced that – based on the current definition of poverty – all residents in China have been relieved from extreme poverty.

    That statement on Gog Gull ought to make you cringe. It does me. But, I am so glad that zero Chineze are in extreme poverty. I can rest easier, now.

    I appreciate your knowledgable comment, Bob. One does not build a navy out of whole cloth. It takes time in the saddle. Tell me about some cool Chinese naval battles and victories.

    No doubt the US Navy is at a low point. Electric decks and motors…I’d rather go back to stim-powered catapults. More reliable.

    I absolutely agree that we have been under house arrest by our own western governments. If outcomes tell you anything, this outcome has been a bad slapdown – extremely bad – of our business and economy. Shut the whole commerce engine down for no real reason. For a made-up crisis. That was a neat piece of work.

    Put me down as a believer that our economy can roar back, if we can just find the doorway.

  • Casey Klahn June 9, 2021, 11:38 AM

    Kevin, I agree.

  • ghostsniper June 9, 2021, 2:17 PM

    3am and you get a phone call from your best friend who lives about 15 miles away. He tells you the insane hordes are heading your way and will be there in about half an hour and promptly hangs up.

    Adrenaline boosting, your feets hit floor as you turn on the table lamp. It is then that you realize there is an enemy coming down the hallway to your open bedroom door. Your 870 pump is standing right there.

    Do you grab the pump and meet the approaching enemy at the gate to hell?

    Or do you grab the pump, jump out the window, slide down the downspout, grab your full battle rattle out of the vehicle and run like a maniac toward the approaching hordes?

    Again, there is NOTHING at all that interests me even the tiniest amount when my full and undivided attention is laserbeam focused on the immediate task at hand.

    No one, not one single sane human anywhere on this planet, is going to attend to largely fictional characters that may not even exist, somewhere out there, when that cold steel is mere inches from their jugular vein.

    Everybody is champing at the bit to pull triggers but nobody seems to know where the target is. I find this perplexing.

  • John henry June 9, 2021, 6:28 PM

    Casey’s analysis and the comments are another reason I read this blog. Thanks Casey, commenters and especially Gerard for provthe venu

  • John henry June 9, 2021, 6:55 PM

    Two comments from me:

    1) interesting graphic at CW Swanson’s place yesterday showing population density of China
    94% of the population lives on 43% of the land area. (CW caveats uncertain credibility)

    https://dailytimewaster.blogspot.com/2021/06/not-sure-if-this-is-accurate-but-it.html

    2) something nobody seems to talk about is how hard Covid hit China.

    Per worldometer just now, China has 63 cases/million pop and 3 deaths/mm

    Us has 102,952cases/mm and 1,843deaths/mm

    I don’t trust either set of numbers but that is one Hell of a discrepancy. It’s almost as if the virus is designed not to attack ethnic Chinese bv ased on genetics.

    2a) tens of millions of Americans have sent their genes in to 23 and me and other testing companies. That would make one Hell of a database to determine unique genetic characteristics if some evildoers wanted to make a designer virus to attack certain groups but not others.

    Kruschev famously said Russia would bury capitalists and the capitalists would sell them the shovels. Are we seeing that here with 23 and me et al?

    Naaaah…. That’s crazy talk

  • Anonymous June 9, 2021, 7:29 PM

    Sand Pebbles the movie was indeed a masterpiece and as good as it is, Sand Pebbles the novel was written by a real China sailor, Richard McKenna. You think the movie is good? Read the book. The Naval Institute Press edition is the one to have because it goes into McKenna the man in great detail. McKenna died at age 51, and did not live long enough to see his story on the big screen.

    Now as far as the asshoes who run China: I know something about how they do their business.
    They’re liars, cheats, counterfeiters and thieves and anyone who would enter into any kind of agreement with them is gonna get screwed, blued, and tattooed, and deservedly so. Good luck with that.

  • Zaphod June 9, 2021, 7:56 PM

    Chinese or Usual Suspects… really both matter but not in sense that they are somehow Evil Geniuses.

    The big thing really is…. FFS STOP SURRENDERING TO THEM!

    Chinese, Joos… Martians… Pod People from the Pleiades — any and all will take advantage of and aggressively attrit a people who have lost the ability to fend for themselves. Whites need to look inwards and figure out who they are and whether or not they want to stand up or bend over. The rest is just Details.

  • bilejones June 10, 2021, 5:25 AM

    I couldn’t decide if the China is a dysfunctional shithole piece was satire or not.
    Here in the Untied States the plan to asset-strip the White middle class proceeds apace. Nothing works anymore. How are the Cali-commie farmers going to handle the drought? Blackrock is buying up whole neighborhoods. Real inflation is now in double digits. Here in Baltimore County MD parents are driving the masked kids to school and sitting in the car in the parking lot to use the (closed) school wifi for online classes because the home wifi is modem-speed. etc etc etc. In case you haven’t noticed, White guys aren’t running things anymore.
    I suggest a re-read of Aristophanes’ AssemblyWomen.

  • Joe Krill June 10, 2021, 6:15 AM

    “To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the supreme of excellence. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the supreme of excellence.” – Sun Tzu

    Biden family is a lackey of the CCP. Worse than an agent provocateur, He has already issued executive orders which have dropped President Trump’s orders banning the popular apps Tik Tok and WeChat and has rescinded Trumps ban regarding China having any involvement in our electric grid. And the sheeple nod their lazy heads and go baaaaaaaaaa.

  • Jack June 10, 2021, 6:47 AM

    Even past 70 I’ve still got a bit of ADHD in me and I am going to put aside an hour or two to return to this blog and read everyone’s comments, uninterrupted. Theories always interest me as much or more than actual facts which sometimes aren’t known until after the smoke clears.

    But I thought it worth mentioning that the Lakota painting on buffalo hide featured above was of a very significant event. Painting on hides was a method through which most tribes maintained records of the history of their tribes and this piece of now priceless art wasn’t created to make a statement like…’this is what we did to Custer and his troops’. It was simply an Indian record of that fight.

    The plains tribes in particular recorded significant events of each year on a hide which were called Winter Counts and those events were painted as a pictograph and typically each event was painted in a line from right to left or left to right or in a circular patter on the hides and sometimes without a particular pattern.

    Many Winter Counts have survived and the fans of this blog, who might be interested, should do a Goog search to see some that have been retained through the years.

    Anyway, just an aside.

  • billrla June 10, 2021, 11:36 AM

    Great post and interesting comments. China has to keep building and expanding or it will implode. Without expansionism, China cannot survice.

  • Ned June 10, 2021, 3:52 PM

    This will not be a shooting war.
    This will be a war in the ether, and China is ahead. They control our commerce.

  • muddycross@yahoo.com June 10, 2021, 4:23 PM

    Steve (retired/recovering lawyer) :

    my favorite is “we’ve declared ourselves stateless persons!!”

  • Ohio Guy June 10, 2021, 4:32 PM

    The author of this bullshit needs to put boots on the fucking ground in China instead of a silly “walk about” on a fucking map. Then get back with me on the facts of your observations. Until then, you’re not mentally prepared to talk about China. You disinfo assholes, all you know is hate.

  • ghostsniper June 10, 2021, 7:22 PM

    OG: blow us, hard!

  • Casey Klahn June 10, 2021, 7:36 PM

    I learned a hell of a lot from the comments. Very rewarding for me.

  • Zaphod June 10, 2021, 9:25 PM

    @OG:

    Good point. Too many China Experts have never been there and soaked up the vibe. They’re absolutely not your friends… they’re not (all) Fu Manchu… They’re most definitely *not* a Paper Tiger and they’re also not totally invincible. But It’s Complicated and looking at a map and going all Mackinder on their Slanty-eyed Plagiarising Oriental Asses won’t cut it.

    To get what you’re up against, need to go there and sniff around a bit. They’re all over you guys sniffing all your orifices. This is what Civilizations on the Up and Up do. Dying, clapped out Civilizations sit at home and read old books about their enemies and pontificate.

  • ghostsniper June 11, 2021, 4:54 AM

    Casey sed: “I learned a hell of a lot from the comments.”
    =======
    What did you learn?

    The last coupla posters above seem to believe you actually have to get bitten by the rattlesnake in order to speak legitimately about the dangerousness of doing so. As far as I can tell they aren’t joking. Thus, one more instance of the communication disjointment in this country. In order for the US citizenry to “come together” a whole lot of them will have to be eliminated. It pretty much comes down to host vs parasite. “Now ask yourself, do you feel lucky? Well, do ya punk?”

  • Vanderleun June 11, 2021, 7:32 AM

    Not a fan of the School of “You gotta haf ta really spend some time in X to be able to…” What? Read a map? Know military facts from the terrain? Have a working knowledge of history?

    Seems to me that when these discussions get involved there’s always somebody that crops up after many things are said to say that nobody who has said anything knows anything.

    It’s a troll. Not really worthy of respect or comment.

  • Observer June 11, 2021, 9:13 AM

    Let us just say that Ohio Guy has a hard time with any semi intelligent “thought” process and Zaphod has no idea what *day* of the week it is.

  • Casey Klahn June 11, 2021, 2:15 PM

    Trolls will troll. Instead of adding to the knowledge base, they attempt to destroy what is said of real content and consequence.

    What I learned from the comments section:

    Generally, those present have a healthy concern for our internal predicament as a nation and added to that the influence of Chinese subterfuge, which seems to have a direct conduit from our esteemed POTUS. Social Media ought to be lionizing the political dissidents in Hong Kong, but instead, that office falls to young people on 4chan and discord. We are in a full-court cyber, info, and tech war, and economic war. The kinetics that do occur will be on top of what all military strategists call: a prepared battlefield.

    Jewel rightly points out the diplomatic initiatives that the Chicoms are undertaking in the world. This is for balance to my statement that “everyone hates the Chinese”. In particular, look at the islands and peninsular nations surrounding China in the Westpac and SE Asia. The hate is palpable. China has to look somewhere for an axis of influence.

    Interesting takes on the word and the object that is a map. Me: 100% score on the infamous land nav course at Ft Benning, Georgia. I taught map & compass later on. The map (the one before the computer) is a physical tool and let’s just say the lack of map skills is an absolute straight line to failure in war and outdoors. Note that the test I speak of is all outdoors, not in a classroom.

    Sherlock’s comment is a bell-weather. Read it again and underline the content on subversion. However, I beg the class to note that nowhere do I go into Sun Tzu, and I also do not rule out physical war. Ruling our physical war is like the lib who puts a gun-free zone in front of his house – he’s begging for a takedown. Sun Tzu is short and circular in his philosophy of war. I prefer von Clausewitz and the western philosophers of war because they are systematic. Clausewitz wants you to know that your national objective (military principle of the initiative) is your foundation. To repeat myself, we must lead the Chinese into establishing objectives at the highest levels of strategy, and then we deny them success with those. This is the strategic defense.
    Joe Krill passes this class.

    James ONeil, also a pass. But, China is the subject so keep them in your rearview mirror.

    bob sykes gets a hundred. My comment cum post, however, sought to find the weaknesses in the Chinese facade. Think about it.

    Kevin in PA, all great points, and I also feel that the timing of the viral outbreak right before the election cycle cannot help but make you conclude that there was an objective to the whole thing. “You election observers stand over there while we stuff these ballots because ‘social distance’ “.
    Ghostie keeps the home fires burning, Also, thanks for having my back with the trolls. Ghost is the kind of guy who goes with you to the tavern, and sets himself up with his back to the wall and facing the door. I buy the drinks.

    Jack, I hope we meet someday. I went to the highest level infantry school for officers at Ft Benning, absolutely burning up with ADHD (I didn’t know WTF that was until I had a son) and yet I managed to score just a point below the academic honor level (without studying) and I scored a hundred percent on every hands-on combat critical test. ADHD is a beautiful thing. I did get honor class in OCS, though. Nowadays, I pour over compendiums of Clausewitz and strategy. I wrote this to say: fuck off trolls.

    Finally, look at how Gerard put that Indian artwork up there and the graphic link to the China maps – which perfectly illustrate the landform and the population dissemination within. You know it’s weird because I should be illustrating his writing, not the other way around. Thanks, again, my friend. I don’t know every last thing there is to know about China, but hanging around here informs me.

  • Anonymous June 11, 2021, 6:31 PM

    Yamamoto had spent a chunk of time in the USA. He was not doing victory jigs after Pearl Harbor like his more rah rah stupid fellow military officer were. They had all seen the newsreels, movies, and read the statistics and attended the same staff colleges doing the same study of their American Adversary… but they didn’t GROK it. Because they had not *lived* there and seen the sheer scale of American Industrial might and gotten a feel in their bones and very guts for the energy and nature of the American People (then).

    Some of you old dudes have the same issue. Just facts, folks. Dismissal and abuse won’t change one iota in Base Reality.

  • Zaphod June 11, 2021, 6:32 PM

    That was me, obviously. Forgot to enter my handle before hitting submit.

  • Zaphod June 11, 2021, 6:37 PM

    Q: How many Wise Latinas and Trannies does it take to build a Liberty Ship?
    A: It’ll be over before you find out.

    Q: How many shipyards in the USA can actually BUILD a ship of any significant tonnage in 2021. How many smelters can make the steel?
    A: Anyone? Anyone?

    Q: Who has a Manhattan Project Scale plan for relocating Most Important Intellectual Property on the Planet (TSMC) and all its staff and their families to (say) Wyoming?
    A: Nobody.

    And I’m the Troll.

  • Zaphod June 11, 2021, 6:50 PM

    Less Mackinder and Mahan and a bit more Smuts and de la Rey, methinks.

    https://www.amren.com/videos/2021/06/the-heroic-white-tribe-of-africa/

    Or as Saint Jordan Peterson would have it, Tidy Your Room. If you can keep it.

    Chinks will abide.

  • Casey Klahn June 11, 2021, 6:51 PM

    Zap Hod. You’re talking about humint.

    Tell us about you time in China.

  • ghostsniper June 12, 2021, 4:44 AM

    There’s an important line of truth in Zaphod’s last comment, did you catch it?
    It actually underscores my premise on this china stuff.

    China is ALREADY in the house.
    There is no point in concern of way over there.
    They have brought the war right into your front yard.
    They didn’t do this without help from the inside.
    Everybody knows this but nobody knows how to deal with it, favoring instead on focusing on distant land masses that mean nothing.

    When the blade is on your neck do you yell at your neighbor that his grass is too tall?

    Something’s going to snap and a good portion of my thinking each day is in evaluating where the snap is going to happen first and try to make sure my bases are covered in that regard. This line of thinking has caused me to realize my everything is spread way to wide and thin. So, slowly, I am condensing everything. “That Woman” sed, “When you leash a dog you leash yourself.”, and that is true. Another smart person said we are prisoned by the things that own us that we think we own.

    In another lifetime I traveled the world and other than a small box of “things” I left with my sister, my whole world was on my back. Yeah, I was a turtle. And the most free in my whole life. I am sort of seeking that existence again. The very foundation of this country is crumbling all around us and I will do all that I can to not be pulled in by the societal inertia and the over ballast of material things that bind. I’m not giving up my lifestyle, for it is the essence of my identity, a culmination of who I am and have been for the past half century. But rather, streamlining, cutting useless redundancy, and focusing on the long term about things that matter. Nobody can help you better than you.

  • Bob57 June 12, 2021, 10:24 AM

    Casey, I should have been a bit more articulate in my comment on war being ‘unwinnable’. What I meant was a conventional/nuclear war. The point was that party leadership has exactly zero concern for the welfare of their own citizens. It has been this way since the time of Mao. Jung Chang’s book “Mao, the Unknown Story” is an excellent reference on Mao’s history of inhumanity to his own people, even his own soldiers. Another Chinese friend’s parents lived through ‘the years of leaves and grass’ when the common people were reduced to stripping leaves off of trees for sustenance as a result of Mao’s ordering citizens to relinquish their food so that it could be traded to the Soviet Union in exchange for arms.

  • FTB June 12, 2021, 12:39 PM

    “They’ve been handled like imbecilic puppies in the puppy mill of history. Beat around by the Japanese, the western powers, the Russians. ”

    Only if one is citing from the mill of history from the mid-19th Century onward.

    Before the 1800s, they were often a Tier 1 power. Repelling Czarist Russia from Siberia, seizing Formosa from the Dutch, winning a conflict at the top of the world against the Gurkhas, suppressing Japanese corsair raiders, sought after as a trade partner by the Roman Empire……

    Beijing is seeking to regain that historical status, albeit in a rapacious manner.

    “Any kinetic opportunities lie on the southern flank of China, which is Vietnam, Burma (or whatever they call themselves), and Thailand. Watch what China does there – it’s the most important place.”

    I would think an equally important place lies in Central Asia where the World Island’s pivot point plays a vital role in their BRI endeavour.

  • jwm June 12, 2021, 9:02 PM

    I am a simple minded guy. Did not get drafted at b19, and did not volunteer. I am not well read, or studied in things military, and my knowledge of history came from the Cal State system, which is to say, poor.
    Some observations, after following this discussion.
    China wishes to to occupy the role that the United States has occupied since the mid- twentieth century: World leader in technology, industry, political, and military power.
    They are smart, and they are more ruthless than we are.
    Like Ghostsniper said, they’re here. Inside the gates. No wooden horse needed. We invited them, and took the tuition.
    All my life, I’ve heard stories of our CIA messing with foreign governments, spreading around some money in the right places, making sure “elections” turn out right, and such. Looks to me like we’ve been played in the same way. Look at the wreckage in the Whitehouse. Consider feminists, race baiters, and trannies running the military.
    In another life, I taught high school English. One of the books I had to drag the kids through, semester after semester, was “The Good Earth” by Pearl S, Buck. There is a part in the story where the main character, Wang Lung, has to deal with a parasitic bum of an uncle, who also happens to be a member of a criminal gang. Rather than confront the wicked uncle, Wang Lung observes the uncle’s weaknesses, and gives him a gift of some opium. Wang Lung makes sure the uncle has all he wants. Soon enough, the formerly dangerous uncle is a strung-out, diminished wreck, at Wang Lung’s mercy.
    Maybe our opium came in the form of cheap consumer goods, and industries farmed offshore for the quick profit of investors like Romney. Suddenly, all our medicine comes from China. How did that happen?
    They want to lead the world. I have not read Sun Tzu, but I believe he wrote something about defeating an enemy without having to use arms at all.
    Ford F 150’s are idle because no Chinese chips.

    JWM

  • Oso Grande June 14, 2021, 2:25 PM

    Two words.
    Nuclear. Tsunamis.
    What Chyna?

  • Noveskes Rock June 14, 2021, 4:10 PM

    An observation based on 25 years working in the worlds garden spots negotiating (and enforcing) contracts. Americans tend to believe if someone wears western attire and speaks fluent English they share cultural values. Absolutely incorrect. In China I worked in Hong Kong, Harbin, Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu and Macau. The story I share to explain Chinese values has to do with license plates. If you had plates with the sequence used by the secret police you could park anywhere and no one would say boo. Except the secret police … who would either take a bribe then shoot you or occasionally let you go. Peeps thought it was still worth it to buy and use counterfeit plates. Given how easy it was to inform on someone using those plates it seems crazy – but the situation persisted for at least 2 years that I know of.

    While the US is the long term enemy the Chinese are running a short term / 3 generation game in Siberia. Western Russians loathe the place so the Chinese work on short term or no visas doing the scut labor. 20 years in and there are over 800,000 Chinese working in Siberia. As they put down roots they will ultimately bring the region fully into the Chinese sphere. The natural resources and lebenstraum there (close to home) will be handy

  • A.B Prosper June 14, 2021, 11:53 PM

    The biggest problem China faces is demography. They have a very large population right now but its incredibly old and within 5 years or less (this according to China Insights citing UN data) 60% of people in China will be 60 years old or more! They did indeed get old before they got poor.

    On top of that there is a huge shortage of fertile age women , most were forcefully aborted into the 90’s.

    Because of costs and the impossibility of owning a home there is no interest in marriage and a very low marriage rate and despite a new 3 child policy, no one wants many children. They claim to want 1.6 (in the West they claim to want 2.2) which is the ratios wanted to actual cross culture means they’ll have one.

    By comparison even Germany and Italy are doing better!

  • Dirk October 12, 2021, 9:15 AM

    Interesting Casey. I would add, that we know definitively that the US has a permanent detachment of 5th Special Forces on the island, training the islanders. Appears to be well over a year now, who knows.

    Agree China has vastly underestimated the islands capabilities. Huge rumor floating that “ some how” The island is NOW nuke capable. “ The Drive.com”

    Lastly China has friends, the worst money can buy. Doubt Iran, or North Africa, or other nations whom are being politically manipulated will continue to do so, when the moneys gone.

    We’ll done Casey,

    VI

    • Casey Klahn October 12, 2021, 3:38 PM

      Dirk, you say 5th Group is there? I’ma look into that. I read the Marine Raiders were there, formerly in secret. This just underscores the serious potential of a ground campaign there. Shit.
      Yes, nukes and japan will have nukes, too, if it comes to that. Oprah: ” You get a nuke, and YOU get a nuke, annnnnndddd YOU get a nuke!”

      • Dirk October 13, 2021, 6:58 AM

        While I’ve been told, Months ago, I finally read it on Thedrive.com. Anybody who likes to be semi in the loop, should at least visit the site weekly. Raiders? I’ve heard this aswell, just haven’t seen verified able articles to that exactly.

        The Nuke things breaking in the papers today.

        Dirk

  • Jack Lawson October 12, 2021, 9:28 AM

    Ladies and Gentlemen,
    I doubt that the “China invading Taiwan” syndrome will be anything other than saber rattling and a distraction from The Powers That Are main agenda of tightening their control grip on people… everywhere.

    The Chinese wife of an American Friend, who both lived in Taiwan for decades, told me when I asked about the possibility of an invasion of Taiwan by China…

    “Why would they? They are so cross connected by economics that the invasion is already over. They both invaded each other decades ago. Taiwanese owned factories in China and Chinese CCP factories in Taiwan. Both of them have way too much to lose to go to war… so why would they?”

    Jack Lawson
    Associate Member, Sully H. deFontaine Special Forces Association Chapter 51, Las Vegas, Nevada
    Author of “The Slaver’s Wheel”, “A Failure of Civility,” “And We Hide From The Devil,” “Civil Defense Manual” and “In Defense.”

    War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things: the decayed & degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks nothing worth a war is worse. When a people are used as mere human instruments for firing cannon or thrusting bayonets, in the service and for the selfish purposes of a master, such war degrades a people.
    A war to protect other human beings against tyrannical injustice; a war to give victory to their own ideas of right and good, and which is their own war, carried on for an honest purpose by their own free choice, is often the means of their regeneration. A man who has nothing which he cares about more than he does about his personal safety is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free, unless made and kept so by the existing of better men than himself.
    As long as justice and injustice have not terminated their ever-renewing fight for ascendancy in the affairs of mankind, human beings must be willing, when need is, to do battle for the one against the other. – Philosopher, John Stuart Mill

    War is ugly, but there are some things that are worse.

    • Casey Klahn October 12, 2021, 3:44 PM

      If one’s nation is sound, representative and lawful, then the reason for warfare is: to accomplish a national objective. Make it finite, and make it achievable. Push the Chinese mainland to establish unattainable national objectives, and deny them that until they stab themselves over it.
      I was ready to hear the wife from Taiwan, and yet, unfortunately, the actual things that cause wars are: fear, jealousy, petulance, greed. China would be crazy to start a war. Subtext: is China crazy? Answer: yes, they are.
      Let’s hope it’s saber rattling. meanwhile, we prepare.

  • Dirk October 12, 2021, 10:20 AM

    Jack, I pray your right. Seems to me this is One Mans goal, not a nation.

    Hey I’ve been wrong before.

    Anyway, think the best approach for this family is kick back, wait,,,,,, watch.

    We don’t have big plans, we have really big responses to others plans.

    TheDrive.com, is well worth the visit daily, as is SWJ, and LWJ, for insight.

    VI

  • gw October 12, 2021, 12:37 PM

    Similar critiques directed against the Chinese have been levied against the Viet Cong/NVA, Iraqis, Afghans, etc. For decades we have had strategic military advantage, NATO allies, and “moral right”. But we didn’t then and don’t now have the combination of political will and military leadership capable of winning what would be another costly and long war.
    “China is ill-advised to start this war, but stupider things have been done in history.” Yes, we have, and because of that China may be confident it can defeat what they see as a greater fool.

  • Drake October 12, 2021, 12:43 PM

    China doesn’t need to invade Taiwan to achieve their objectives, and in any case the field of battle will likely be different than suggested. Subversion, electronic warfare, network disruption, turning off the lights on much of the island, as well as some surprises from outer space, where their capabilities are not understood. Drones in the air and water, high value target capture, and other options utilizing advanced AI capabilities will keep Taiwan defenses off balance. And where are these allies and allied forces? With POTUS bought and paid for and Intel and military clowns subverted, the mainland is holding a stronger hand than Japan alone can resist.

    • Casey Klahn October 12, 2021, 4:02 PM

      Short of political subterfuge, conflicts will continue to be decided by armed guys fast walking into capitols and yelling: “mine!” Unfortunately, we may be long on political subterfuge. Possibly Biden is a wholly owned subsidiary of China. Game, set, match.

      But, if kinetics ensue, do not underestimate allied strength. It is formidable. Vietnam was lifetimes ago, and since then the Pacific theater has become just a war game in the minds of admirals and generals. But! They are less effected by the malaise, defeatism and shitty fortunes of our Western Asian expeditions.

      Commenters will suggest that our military is crumpling under Biden’s strange leadership. Are we now facing the destruction of our own military from within, as happened to the Soviets under Stalin, right before they got their collective ass handed to them by some shit talking skiers in the Finnish forests? It’s an open question, and a very serious one. Note that my Operational Analysis is all on paper. Morale, and a clear eye, are 10 to 1 compared to numbers and equipment when considering the military.

      God help us in any event.

  • Kevin in PA October 13, 2021, 5:36 AM

    A good starting point to look at any potential/impending threat is – Never underestimate your enemy.

    It has been said that “China has no friends.” This may be true, but they have allies. Among whom are Russia. Make no mistake that Russia would side with the Chinese if only for the strategic purpose of taking down the dollar and the U.S.A. I would put it to you that is a far bigger goal of the alliance. The destruction of the dollar is a real possibility and could turn the U.S. into Venezuela almost overnight. That to me is a bigger and more real threat than a kinetic war.

    Do not forget that Commies don’t play by our rules. PLA uses fishing vessels to overwhelm smaller neighbors. The PLA has been caught with missiles on board container ships. Think about that for a moment and understand how many container ships are sitting off the coast of California. How many are armed
    To the Communist mind destruction is all part of their approach. Destruction is an inherent characteristic of Communism. Communism is at war with nature. Communism is at war with the fundamental laws of economics. Communism is at war with the inherent nature of man, at war with God and at war with the notion of individual freedom. And so, a war that achieves nothing more than destruction would not. be out of the question. They are content to stand upon rubble, just as Democrats would gladly burn down the nation in order to maintain their hold on power. They care nothing for beauty, functionality or law.
    An attack on Taiwan may not be curtains for China, but it could take down the Xi-faction of the CCP.

    As a side note about “boots on the ground” – I have travelled to China a dozen times. For what it’s worth.

    • Casey Klahn October 13, 2021, 7:30 AM

      I value your experience and viewpoint. Jumping back up to the strategic level, you find a China that hardly ever wars, and sits in a physical box canyon slinging rhetorical arrows and snippets of how mighty their army has become. Their attack plan seems comically far-fetched. And yet, war has its own mind about things, and nations go to war on lots of pretexts that don’t always make sense. In order for the old commies in China to maintain power (have energy in their agenda and keep their seats on the throne) they need to bother someone, somewhere. Also, there is an old truth about communism that an engine of technological and economic might running right next door is an affront to their Marxist/Maoist program. Hong Kong was an example.
      It’s very hard, from my 2 dollar seat, to predict whether they will attack Taiwan or not, and yet it is interesting to note what they’re up against if they do, both strategically and operationally.
      I agree with your assessment of Communism, and yet here we are, 2021, and the fux seem to be very strong right there in Olympia and DC.

      • Kevin in PA October 13, 2021, 8:32 AM

        My brain is on slow function today.

        Forgot that you said:“Their attack plan seems comically far-fetched. And yet, war has its own mind about things, and nations go to war on lots of pretexts that don’t always make sense. In order for the old commies in China to maintain power (have energy in their agenda and keep their seats on the throne) they need to bother someone, somewhere. “

        Excellent point. There is a lot to this;

        CCP has so many problems inside the motherland that they need an external enemy at which to lash out. Xi does a lot to talk, talk about reducing poverty and they have to a significant degree, but there is widespread and abject poverty in mainland China. They can’t produce enough coal to fire their plants, nor heat their homes and they spite the Australians (their largest source of coal) because of the demand from Aussieland to find out what happened in Wuhan. Are you aware that in China you don’t have access to heat from mid-March through mid-November? I can tell you that those big apartment buildings are cold in late March or early October. The CCP doesn’t turn on the power for central heating until Nov.15 and it goes off March 15.

        They don’t have enough arable land to grow food for 1.4 billion mouths and the costs of imported foods just keep going up. The current crisis in the real-estate (if you can call it that? You don’t own property in China. You lease it for 70 years from the state) market is going to crash a lot of fortunes in the middle kingdom….leading to many more unhappy customers.

        The global economy is in the shit with current import/export all fucked up due to supply chain issues….related to vax mandates, worker shortages, etc. All of it effecting the happy factor of the average worker in the glorious utopia of applied “Xi-thought” and “socialism with Chinese characteristics”.

        They really need an external enemy to distract the populace from the misery.

        Never underestimate your enemy.

    • Kevin in PA October 13, 2021, 8:08 AM

      It was early when I typed my comment this morning. Punctuation and syntax were a bit off. Sorry.

      In the end, all of this China stuff seems to me to be about nothing more and nothing less than raw power.
      I believe men aspiring toward power are the very men who should never have it. And the power lust of Communism is like a disease….a sick mind.

      There are men in the upper 1% of income earners (wealth achieved usually not by creative genius, but more by cunning manipulation) that have every material need and all of their wants fulfilled….and yet, they want MORE! They want power!

      They so desperately want to have power, recognition and money is a ticket to a lot of it. So they willingly sell out their country, their culture, their fellow countrymen for money, as a conduit to power. It’s all ego based, sociopathic madness….and the Commies see the weaknesses of the West. The CCP has bought and paid for many a politician, many a professor and many a scientist around the world and especially here in the U.S.. As has been pointed out – they are in the house / barbarians inside the gate.

      The Commies want Taiwan, but they are currently waging a psychological war on the West. They are intimidating their neighbors and they are playing team Biden for everything they can get. See- Bahgram Airbase, built with U. S. tax dollars, abandoned along with several billion dollars worth of military equipment (to be reverse-engineered by the Commies). The closest U.S. air base to China, by the way, in the outback known as Afghanistan – mineral rich (think lithium – China has cornered the market on that essential ingredient to the greening of the West’s industry and infrastructure).

      General Milley (aka the trans-traitor-fag) is playing checkers for the other team and the CCP is playing 3-D chess with the Biden WH.

      Never underestimate your enemy.

  • Dirk October 13, 2021, 7:06 AM

    Lots of “ views” here good food for thought stuff. I don’t know about China controlling the island from the mainland. Think it’s much simpler then most. The communist specifically their leader is an ambitious man.

    A brilliant tactician, somehow this island things personal for him, maybe his party. It’s simply not practical for the nationalists to be so close, a spring board to China. China grows people, little else.

    The seven rivers dam will be instrumental in someday taming the yellow man.

    That said, never ever underestimate ones enemy.

    VI

  • GregT October 13, 2021, 10:10 AM

    China invading Taiwan: The first time I sailed through the Taiwan Strait a question popped into my E4 brain. How was the Peoples Liberation Army planning on getting across 110 miles of not very friendly water to set foot on Tiawanese soil? Fifty years later they have greater naval capibility but the question remains. I guessing they think they have an answer.

    • Casey Klahn October 13, 2021, 3:08 PM

      My guess is that the problem will require getting half way without being noticed (that would be a real James Bond kind of trick managed with some kind of jamming and an electronic shell game of sorts), and putting pedal to the metal for the last half of the journey. They’ll get attrited like beer at a Navy bar, and have to rely on Mass. Interestingly, the Chinese do excel, somewhat, in Security, Surprise and Mass.

  • Andrew R October 13, 2021, 10:49 AM

    The article and (most) comments have been good reads.

    Tossing my 2 cents in:

    Xi has been a power-hungry toad and seems to have set himself up as the greatest thing since Mao, and might just try to out Mao Mao. But he’s no youngster. How many years does he have left? And what will that push him to do? Does he really want a war, or will subversion and foreign greed get him what he wants before he kicks off?

    China’s Belt & Road Initiatives – how many deals have they cut in the world since the news has gotten around that they sell a good deal and then pull the rug out from under you? I’m asking because I don’t know the answer. I just know that the news is out there.

    China seems to be screwing the US movie industry now. They’ve observed how we make movies and have build a couple of large studios in country, but no US movies have filmed there since Mulan, and only a few US movies have gotten opening date in China this year. It may be that China has decided they’ve learned all they want from the US film industry and now they’ll screw ’em over. I wonder how Hollywood will handle that.