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The state of play in Ukraine over the last ten days by commenter KCK

[I support the viewing of this video. Cappy has a grasp of military reality — GV]

Strange Daze: Of Sploosh, Rasputin, and Kneepads

KCK March 3, 2022, 8:56 AM
Had enough of Clausewitz? Here’s another phrase from his book: “Presence of Mind”. He applied it to a young commander who, in the midst of battle, could see clearly the actual situation and make decisions accordingly – make decisions that would lead to the accomplishment of his mission, and ideally also the preservation of his command. No hopes, no bullshit, no fooling oneself.

Let’s talk about tanks, in a non-political and non-ideological manner. They’ve been described as anachronisms, and yet here we are, baby. Tanks OTA and when you follow the crowd-sourced maps, you look for the tanks to tell you where the front is. American armor units describe themselves as “the combat arm of decision”. Fukn A. Tanks have the formal state as follows: they move, shoot, and communicate, and they provide protection. The art of the tank goes as follows: never stop. When do we stop? Never! Can we stop right here? No! How about a pause at the next…Nope!!

So, clearly, the Russians are off plot a bit and are suffering delays. Opinions vary among war news followers from Ukraine the lion-hearted, and at the other poles we have: Putin’s just doing what he’s gotta and the really interesting opinion called: Fake War. Good to have a clear eye, and not be overly optimistic or pessimistic for your side. This YouTuber has what I think is the perfect amount of pessimism and it’s because he’s an infantry enlisted man veteran. He can’t afford bullshit. Watch his update here:

His assessment is that the pregnant pauses are refueling and rearmament ops, and he’s probably completely right. I’d add they are also cluster fux and command failures because you’re bound to have that and there are Ivans with contraband cell phones uploading vids of how they’ve been abandoned by higher ups and completely forgotten, and elsewhere you have whole tanks and other vehicles abandoned with dry fuel tanks. So, a bit of both on plan and off plan. FTR, the better logs (I did a shit ton of logs in my infantry officer days) is a rolling refuel or a leapfrogging refuel. Remember the tanker’s mantra: Don’t stop!

So, this next phase of the dumpster fire called (by some) the Ukraine-Russia War, is an encirclement of Kiev and then the investment of the city. I told you before that an attacker wants a 3:1 advantage in numbers of troops, but in urban warfare he needs 5:1. Recall how we approached Baghdad, in 2003, and the doctrinal estimates were that we could face a major battle with casualty rates we may not be mentally prepared to accept. Then came the Thunder Run9s) which were fast armored reconnaissance in force ops, and we essentially found the Iraqis (trained and armed by Russia) to be paper tigers when it comes to tank warfare. Never stop? Try digging your T-72s in up to the turret and using them as pillboxes. It ain’t effective, Haji.

Will the Russians effectively ring Kiev? Will the Ukes make a stand there, or escape the sack with forces to fight on in the forested and mountainous West? Will Putin retain significant power long enough to topple Zelensky?

In guilty fun, I am watching for the guys I am calling “The A-Team,” who are a small band of US and Brit SF types fighting inside Ukraine under the banner of the Foreign Brigade. What would you do if you were them? You’d watch the other guy’s spec ops, and you’d physically go to every artillery unit in the Ukrainian army and get actual commanders’ cell phone numbers and radio freeks, and then be where the decision point of the battle is and rain hell on the lead tanks. Notice: columns destroyed littered up and down narrow roads.

idk what will happen, but I do know how shit happens. The Russians are certainly in some danger of being defeated, but more likely they will simply fail to achieve war goals, and this will topple Putin or force him to revise his war aims. Or, they’ll win and topple the Ukraine govt. They won’t occupy as in old times, but hover off map and torment and bully. Next: the Baltics, Finland, etc. IOW, Putin wants political sway and enough swagger to advance his demands and desires in Europe.

KCK February 25, 2022, 7:47 AM
I’ma just bullet-point this war brief based on my interwebs watching this morning – spiced up with some army lingo and knowledge.

1. Russian aircraft being shot down, tanks and infantry-carriers (BMP, BRDM, PT-76, etc) being destroyed by man-fired Javelins and new-model LAW rockets, captured Russian troops…I love the smell of diesel fires in the morning. A Javelin is a medium anti tank weapon, operated by a gunner and a “loader,” and is a fire and forget weapon. It requires number 10 balls to close with a leviathan and poke it with this weapons system. Ukrainians are doing it, and dozens of Russian tanks have received sweet death-by-Javelin. Light Anti-Tank Weapons are the LAWS rocket, which has been updated and looks like a toy throw-away 2.5 foot tube, but yields nice results against smaller armored vehicles. Imagine running under an elephant, and spearing it in the belly; yeah, it’s kind of like that but the elephant has machine guns. Did I mention that the infantry have number 10 balls?

2. Ghost of Kiev. True or not, this meme-worthy nugget had the whole world standing up and cheering for “tiny” Ukraine last night. It takes five air-to-air victories to be called an “ace” in the air force, and it just never happens anymore in modern aerial warfare. Missiles engage the targeted jet beyond your visual range, and the actual cannonade or machine-gunning of an enemy jet is kind of a comic book panel and not a real thing. But, incredible as it is, there is some anon guy whose skills, luck, and opportunity all venned and he managed 6 aerial victories, in one day no less. It’s hard to prove, but it gives Ukrainians a chuckle and a lot of hope. If the Ukes prevail, how many pilots will stroll into the bar and tell the babes that he might be the Ghost of Kiev?

3. The Kiev airfield. Reports in the news that the airport was taken by paratroopers, then recaptured, are not perfectly accurate. Remember what I said yesterday: doctrine is such that the wise commander will not drop parachutists unless they can be linked up with by actual armymen. You know, the ones with heavy machine guns and light cannons. Parachutists are inherently underarmed, and over-sexed. Lots of bark, but little bite. So, my contention is that this was a Spetnaz-type op, with very lightly armed and very big-headed commandos, whose goal was not to capture the airfield but to preserve it for a follow-on airborne invasion. If you use my theory, the whole thing makes sense. Maybe they actually have preserved the airfield. I’m imagining the Ukrainian local commander, flushed with the notion that he recaptured the airfield, and then by tomorrow or late today, he has that Oshit moment of seeing little parachutes bloom over his preserved airfield. Watch and see if I’m not right about this.

4. Snake Island and the little old grandma. Tiny Snake Island covers the access to Odessa, and Russian naval forces did kill the small detachment of whoever was stationed there. And you thought Lighthouse was a scary movie. But while they were about to get kilt, the Ukrainians did manage to tell the Rooskies to “go fuck themselves”. That’s epic. Then, the little olf Uke grandmas on the street corner, yelling at a Russian soldier and asking him why the fuck he’s there in Ukraine? That is comedy gold.

5. Russian high-speed type marine or whatever fast-roping from a helicopter onto a Ukrainian ship, and his last 50 feet he free falls off the end of the rope. hahahahahaha! Dumbass. Fast-roping is for queers.

6. As I expected, the interactive map of Ukraine has gone retarded, and is not giving formative reports of the battle. This is the chaos time when you can guess more data than you’re being given.

7. Remember that Russia takes half. They took a bite of Ukraine in 2014. They took about half of Georgia. They took half of Finland. Half of Poland. Half of Germany and half of Europe. See a pattern? Good to review what winning a war is. It is: achieving your stated national objective. It may include, but usually does not include, taking a whole countries land area, capturing the enemy’s capitol city, or destroying his armed forces. A more usual scenario is forcing terms on the enemy, and accepting his surrender. My estimate is that Putin wants a regime change in Kyiv and the stand-down (by destruction) of the Ukrainian military. He wants to render the Ukrainian military combat ineffective; not necessarily killing every last uniformed member. His further goals are to begin to dictate terms to Eastern Europe, and also to win political arguments with Western Europe. He wants to shame America, but Too Late! We did that to ourselves already, asshole.

8. A good counter to Putin’s nefarious plans is for NATO to simply rally at the borders and “demonstrate”. This reduces his ability to threaten and convince weaker European states into becoming satellites. In play are the Baltic states, Finland, and to some extent the former Soviet states with the word “stan” after them. Also, Sweden, Austria – any remaining non-NATO country. Another good way to damage Putin will be to humiliate him in various ways. An insurgency would be effective. Protests inside Russia are another. My favorite: sink a capital ship. remember that an occupation is a personnel-intensive operation and Putin won’t or can’t manage that. Trudeau occupies Canada (analogy) but he has the infrastructure in place to do it. Still, it is difficult for Trudeau as long as there is the internet, the written word, and middle-class citizens who think for themselves. Putin wants none of those headaches, and he doesn’t need to occupy to meet his objectives.

9. Russians in Ukrainian uniforms, a la Battle of the Bulge when the Krauts did the same. Shoot them up against a wall. It’s the right thing to do. Russia has a bad habit of over-playing their special forces, and yet they seem to be not that fucking great at what they do.

10. We were talking about the thesis of Clausewitz, which is the inherent trend of war to go total. Ukraine gives AKs and Molotov cocktails to civilians. Ukraine is nearing total war status (talking or dreaming about having nukes, as well). Russian troops will begin to lose confidence, little by little and in small places around the Ukraine. I still think Russia will win, but it is absolutely possible to humiliate Putin in many evil ways. Another personal favorite: encircle a large force of tank units, perhaps a corps or division-sized element, and play that wonderful army game called: kill sack. Have you seen the Ukrainian tanks in play yet? Hmm…makes you wonder what they’re doing, huh??

KCK February 23, 2022, 9:59 PM
Let’s see. Some random notes as I am about to go to bed but Kiev is waking up to a kinetic day.

1. Biden is as useless as tits on a bull. If anyone in DC had half an ounce of decency, they’d lock him in his office without comms for the rest of the day. Send in ice cream and dancers.

2. The domestic situation in the US and the West (hold that thought: the West, or Europe, is in the prop wash right now) – anyway – our state of affairs within our borders is more critical than Europe because when we lose freedom, that’s the end.

3. I note that France has signed surrender documents already.

4. If Ukraine had just reached 100% vax status things would be going much better for them.

5. Rumors abound as to what is happening in Ukraine, but don’t believe about 99% of what you read. No way there’s an airborne assault on the Kiev airport, because that requires a follow-up by tanks and they are weeks away.

6. Bombs and preparatory fires are hitting C3 inside Ukraine. C3 is command, control and communication. Next they’ll hit combat forces and counter-mobility targets to isolate the combat forces. Next they’ll roll in the tank columns. Watch to see how many Russian tanks break down on the roads. I noted that one that did had its antennae removed.

7. Russia’s tanks look like a yard sale on tracks. The bed springs observed overhead are to prevent newer weaponry that drops vertically and smartly onto the less-armored top decks. The segmented add-on armor is reactive because a sabot round uses just kinetic energy, and not an explosion, to punch a hole. The laundry racks and reactive armor chunks interrupt the chain of events that occurs when a sabot hits. Take-away: tanks are extremely vulnerable.

8. Watch for belching black exhaust from all Russian vehicles – it will indicate maintenance failures.

9. Watch for a stutter on the road from the border to Kyiv – this will indicate command troubles for the Russians.

10. IMEO, if the Russians actually do start landing troops amphibiously, and I mean actually not just reports of such, then the war on the Black Sea is lost fro NATO. I mean it indicates that.

11. Watch the Med like a hawk. The carrier groups (US, French, Italian) will be the tell-tale indicator of what’s going on. If they don’t fire shots or launch air kinetics, it means NATO is keeping its cool. If the big ships leave the Med, it means Johnson, Biden and NATO have lost their nerve. Russia will possibly threaten the ships, but that’s a sign of weakness.

12. Horde some stuff at home, because the truck convoy and gas prices and probably war fatigue will possibly damage our supply lines of goods.

13. Take care of yourself extra good. Grooming, exercise, eat right. Have a good disciplined online information flow, but not too much. The bullshit you listen to will clog your arteries. Find time to relax.

Comments on this entry are closed.

  • James ONeil March 3, 2022, 10:05 AM

    Where can I buy a program so I can tell the bad guys from the badder guys?

    • nunnya bidnez, jr March 3, 2022, 12:10 PM

      The map is not the territory.
      But the enemy is not roads, bridges, airfields, ammo depots;
      the enemy is people — SPECIFIC PEOPLE.
      Can’t tell the players without a program.
      Where does one get a program?

      Btw , the above applies to Russia & Ukraine also.

  • ghostsniper March 3, 2022, 10:19 AM

    Casey sed: “…our state of affairs within our borders is more critical than Europe because when we lose freedom, that’s the end.”
    That’s all that matters as far as I’m concerned. Everything else is intended distraction.

    • Casey Klahn March 3, 2022, 2:02 PM

      Yeah, possibly why I watched Red Dawn the other night. It was kind of on and kind of off (my predictions and state of affairs are the same) but basically some youth fighting commies inside the Rocky Mountain region. Homefront. What the movie didn’t predict was how the battle would be with the asshole politicians.

      But, here we go. War has a nagging interest in you. You say: Leave me alone! But, that is just a fighting mantra. Like yelling: Wolverines! I said before I needed an 81mm mortar and a palette of ammo. I wasn’t wrong then.

  • james wilson March 3, 2022, 2:19 PM

    I haven’t spent years studying this. Or days. But I think this fellow is smoking his own supply.

    Everything I read in the media about the conflict is a lie. Not just wrong, but a lie. This fellow has no issue going with the narrative, then qualifying it by saying that report might not be true, does not inspire confidence.

    Putin knows what he is doing in the Uke, for better and or worse, as he’s had years to understand the moving parts–and the huge American hand in it. One part is that the Ukrainian government is a den of whores. Fighting for one’s own people is harder to do when it coincides with fighting for that government.

    • KCK March 3, 2022, 6:34 PM

      Just like the way the Brits told you many lies in The Falklands War, it is doubtless the Ukes are using “news” as a battle front. I suggest you not look at any news at all – it’s indecipherable to you.

      Me? I read maps.

      • james wilson March 3, 2022, 10:29 PM

        You read maps. Others read chessboards, and professionally too. Sometimes they are right, sometimes not.

        Russia will acheive it’s objectives, and they don’t have to be brilliant to do that. The Ukraine is incapable of acheiving anything. 25 cents says I will be proven right within six weeks and the maps are as the Russians intended.

        • Mike Austin March 4, 2022, 4:12 AM

          Once Russia absorbs Ukraine she will have a whole lot of intel on those American politicians who are involved in corruption there. Pelosi, Biden and Romney all come to mind. And how strange is it that these are the very ones who bark the loudest about Russia and the evil Putin.

          And it must be said that those US politicos who are all-in for gun control, transgenderism, abortion, special privileges for sodomites, Trump hatred, open borders and the pandemic nonsense, are the same ones who are pushing “Russia! Russia! Russia!” upon us. How odd is it that so many on our side have lined up like good soldiers and now loudly bleat in unison along with Biden and his cronies. Once they considered themselves hard-boiled realists, but now feed widely at the government and media propaganda trough, believing all that they are told to see and all that they are told to hear.

          If Soros has a sense of humor, he must be smiling.

          One month ago Ukraine was just another cut-rate, grimy little nation run by a Globohomo Jewish comedian who was awash in corruption and perversion. Now it has morphed into a David fighting a Goliath, a plucky little country full of heroes who are defeating the Nazi Putin and his war machine. Folks who could not even find Ukraine on a map now have mirabile dictu become experts on Russian and Ukrainian armored vehicles, military tactics and such. Bemedaled generals have popped up all over the media claiming that Putin thinks this and Putin thinks that, but never revealing how they can possibly read Putin’s mind.

          In one month or so, all this confected hoopla and daily “two minutes of hate” will be over. And then our elites will have to find another scary thing to annoy us.

          “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed–and hence clamorous to be led to safety–by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”

          Yesterday it was a pandemic. Today it is Ukraine. It is Orwell’s world, and we just live in it.

          • james wilson March 4, 2022, 12:33 PM

            An superior summary of our current pathetic state, although it is curious that you found it convenient to illuminate the words of a man you claimed to be a second rate thinker when it otherwise suited you.

            • Mike Austin March 4, 2022, 1:55 PM

              Even a vulgar and crude slanderer has his uses.

              • james wilson March 4, 2022, 8:48 PM

                Yes, just not when he roasts your Kebabb in the Great Reset of 1865.

                • Mike Austin March 5, 2022, 10:43 AM

                  Ah…I see that you are back to that old schtick again, your entirely imaginary “Great Reset of 1865”. I will not attempt once again to instruct you, for that would be a waste of our time. You will just have to wallow in your fantasy.

                  You are like a vinyl record that skips after a few seconds of playing, and returns to the beginning, only to skip again, and so on ad infinitum.

  • Sixtyville March 3, 2022, 4:20 PM

    The Stalin fans in the Left in the west are probably getting a stiffy over Putin.

  • Lance de Boyle March 3, 2022, 4:43 PM

    Imagine that we have no firearms…..

    But we do…. And they know it… So,

    Praise be to the Lord our Rock, who trains our hands for war, our fingers for battle (Psalm 144),

    Thank you for the Bill of Rights, the Second Amendment, Thomas Jefferson, Samuel Adams, Thomas Paine, Patrick Henry, John Browning, John Garand, Mosin and Nagant, Sam Colt, 30.06, .308, 7.62 x 54R, .357 magnum, 12 gauge rifled slugs, Mikhail Kalashnikov, Eugene Stoner, and others whom you have blessed with courage, foresight, invention, and mechanical know-how. When the time comes, help us to act boldly with no hesitation, and to hold our rifles steady, aim truly, breathe slowly, squeeze gently, and blast the mother fuckers’ heads competely off.
    Thanks so much,

    Your Pal and Devoted Follower, Lance,
    Formerly, 35th Infantry Division, U.S. Army

    PS. Please give Sgt. Moreland (D 7 2, Tank Hill, Fort Jackson) eternal life with You and let him know that I still thank him for making something of a man out of a skinny 18 year old fuck up.

    • KCK March 3, 2022, 6:15 PM

      Tank Hill is a mother. ’76/ SSG Foley. All of my drills were so fresh from Vietnam, you could still smell the cordite on their fatigues, and see a certain look in their eyes.

    • Terry March 3, 2022, 7:04 PM

      Lance. I would be honored to stand with you Sir. I was only an aircraft mechanic during my USAF stint in the Vietnam era.

      Locked and loaded. Trained by my brother Tim who endured hell in Vietnam in the Army infantry.

  • Dirk March 3, 2022, 8:32 PM

    All calculated on propaganda, speculated from further propaganda. Ashamed that world class fraudMike Yon isn’t in theatre to further propagandize the propaganda,,,,, all while begging for mo money from no less then 20 different money begging locations conveniently listed for your donating pleasure.

    Yea, I’m in one of those moods, sorry.

    • KCK March 4, 2022, 4:39 AM

      O no! There’s propaganda? (Clutches pearls)

    • steveaz March 5, 2022, 8:54 AM

      I am skeptical of Yon’s various campaigns, too. They are framed to appeal to “Patriots,” and always point to his Paypal account.

      After the Canadian convoy raised $10M – only to have it seized by Trudeau, it was only a matter of time before a schuckster south of the border to copy their fundraising success.

      I expect our American version of the convoy to fall flat on its face. Not because the cause isn’t righteous. It is. And not because the Feds are gonna drone-strike it from 8ooo feet. But because it is not a grass roots movement: it is a ‘sloppy second’ copycat organized by ex-Mil media personalities with caviar dreams and their hands out.

      “Please send money, will ya?” Remember that veteran-owned Black Hawk Coffee Company scam? Some day our side will wake up to the ploy.

  • Gordon Scott March 4, 2022, 4:49 PM

    You know, the Russkies may just not be very good at modern warfare. They weren’t very good in 1941, either, but with unimaginable amounts of US material and an utter willingness to use “undesirables” to soak up German bullets and land mines, they beat the Germans.

    Modern mechanized warfare requires a lot of maintenance. Has Vlad’s conscript army been skimping? Almost certainly.