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November 1, 2016

It's Probably Nothing:

Russia is gearing for war. It has amassed 30 motorised divisions on its western borders, with more tanks, by an order of magnitude, than Britain, Germany and France possess put together.
The deployment pattern points at a direct threat to the Baltic EU (and NATO) members. The large-scale civilian evacuation drills, vast army exercises in offensive tactics, surreptitious call-up of reservists, massive deployment of missile forces all cost billions which Russia’s shrinking economy can’t afford to keep up for long. That means the country is looking at some short-term action soon. Now is the winter of our discontent – Alexander Boot

Posted by gerardvanderleun at November 1, 2016 11:21 AM. This is an entry on the sideblog of American Digest: Check it out.

Your Say

Russia won't attack in winter. You only do that out of desperation, and when Spring won't wait.

However, in season, the Baltic States would fold up like an accordion, and it would be a quick war, too. Kaliningrad and Russian satellite Belarus hold the Southern flank of the Baltic States. Riga lies on the water, and because it is inset, it makes the land route there short. An axis of advance from Daugvpils to Riga would tie Russian armor with Marine and naval forces. That would divide the whole mess in two and that's the end of the war if accomplished. The Baltics are as vulnerable as Bambi in the clearing.

I'm not sure why Putin would want the Baltics, except as small bite to take, and if they succeeded then Europe would become inert and flaccid. I guess that's a plausible objective.

As far as the rest of Mr. Boot's assessment, I quibble with him on Russian readiness and capability. 30 motorized divisions, he says. Except that their motor pool is down with a quarter of their fleet in repair, and 10% more deadlined for parts that won't materialize. Also, the Rooskies do not know how to function as lighting-fast armored formations. It's hard to do. They are known for massive, set-piece battles, but I will give them credit for recent use of surprise and subterfuge in Ukraine. That was slick. But, their tanks belch diesel exhaust like an old man on life support. If you watch the numerous videos of tanks and IFVs in combat in Syria and the Ukraine, you see them always doing the wrong thing tactically. The frames always end with some of their vehicles burning, because they don't lead with infantry when needed, and they also don't move with a purpose. They suck at armored warfare.

I'm not as impressed with Russia as the numbers indicate. At the tactical level, they lack sophistication, and I mean that even in 70 year old terms of combined arms warfare tactics.

However, they could strike elsewhere and you ought to keep these things in mind. Finland is on their radar for payback, and Finland is not a NATO member. But, never again in winter. We know that, right?

Yes. Russia is a damnfool country and as dangerous as a bear in the back yard. Yes, we suck as a political entity, and NATO is as weak as possibly it's ever been.

I don't agree about Trump. He met his goal of forcing NATO to re-evaluate it's goals. Of course you negotiate with the wolf at the door, but you keep a .12 guage in your right hand. Flipping Obama is known to make deals behind our backs with Russia. We need to be asking more about that.


Posted by: Casey Klahn at November 1, 2016 7:36 PM

"more tanks, by an order of magnitude, than Britain, Germany and France possess put together"

And capitalism can produce 10 orders of magnitude more tanks than those silly Russians in shockingly little time - so long as all involved civil servants and politicos can be summarily executed.

Oooopsie, we are screwed.

Posted by: Fred Z at November 1, 2016 8:27 PM

Western Civilization is screwing itself. We're watching it happen in real time in Germany,Britain,France,Sweden,Denmark,Norway,et al. Why?

Posted by: Nori at November 1, 2016 9:30 PM

Why are about 1/2 the people on this planet retarded?

Because there are too many that's why.

If there were half as many people there would be half as many retarded.

If there were zero politicians there would be almost no retards.

Politicians create environments that are inviting to retards.

Look at all the policies politicians have created that causes retards from all over the planet to be attracted to them.

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Если это первая покупка, то лучше начать с более простых моделей. Это изделия со средней высотой (70 см) и одной насадкой. Количество труб влияет на работу устройства. Это будет трудная задача.

Очень важно обращать внимание на материал шахты. Чем он прочнее, тем дольше прибор прослужит. Срок службы устройства минимум на 10 лет.

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Posted by: MichaelTef at August 12, 2020 8:07 PM

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