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June 9, 2015

If there’s another war in the Pacific, this is how it will play out.


If Japan can hold the First Island Chain it can starve out China.
If China can take the First Island Chain, it will starve out Japan. The Japanese counterstrategy to China’s is exactly symmetric: control the chain. In Japanese nomenclature, the First and Second Island chains are called the Tokyo-Guam-Taiwan Triangle or TGT. You can see how this works in a map and analysis by the RAND Corporation. First note how the TGT line forms a triangle of undersea mountain ranges which break the Pacific’s surface as island chains. It is widely believed that the TGT is heavily wired with sensors. It is certainly patrolled by ASW assets (in which most of Japan’s naval investments consist) and possibly by UUVs and other wizard devices. It will be instantly clear from the map that if Japan can defend the interior of the TGT, it can do two things at once: 1) prevent Chinese SSNs and aircraft from significantly cutting its lifeline to the Americas and the Middle East (though via the north of Australia) and 2) blockading China into the bargain. The Vast Pacific | Belmont Club

Posted by gerardvanderleun at June 9, 2015 9:41 AM. This is an entry on the sideblog of American Digest: Check it out.

Your Say

It's always a hoot when Americans who haven't won a war in 70 years and whose military, on half a trillion dollars a year, can't defend their own head-quarters against $12 worth of boxcutters opine about war.

Posted by: bilejones [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 9, 2015 6:27 PM

The best thing we can do is stay back and let the Orientals settle it between themselves.

Will we do it? Oh, no. Uh uh.

American military strategy is: they can't find their ass with their hands tied behind their backs.

Posted by: chasmatic [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 9, 2015 10:55 PM

Ask yourself, "What would Roosevelt do?"

Posted by: ghostsniper [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 10, 2015 9:03 AM

And to top- it off, the Philippines is about to invite the Japanese navy Maritime Self Defense Force to use the Philippines' naval facilities, if not actual basing.

Just let that sink in for a moment.

Japan has the fourth-largest navy in the world in terms of tonnage afloat. Technically, it is not a navy at all, but an arm of the country's civil service; it's sailors are all civilians! And its title is the Maritime Self-Defense Force, not Japanese navy.

But they are not fooling anyone. Its vessels are among the newest and most modern in the world.

I wonder what my dad, a US Navy WW2 veteran, and my father in law, who actually fought in the Philippines campaigns, will say when I tell them the Japanese navy is returning there - at the Philippines' invitation!


Posted by: plus.google.com/104841162830331053592 [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 10, 2015 4:11 PM

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