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Remember the war in Europe? You know, the most recent one. CIA spy analyzes Vladimir Putin and the War in Ukraine | Andrew Bustamante and Lex Fridman

Lex Fridman has his hopes and dreams but Bustamante observes that Russia has won. Why? Because Russia has to win and Europe doesn’t really need an independent Ukraine after all. Nor does anyone, not even Ukraine.

UPDATE: Today’s highly detailed and map-driven report: Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 13.08.2022

Gerard Van der Leun // 1692 Mangrove Ave Apt: 379
Chico, CA 95926

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  • A Feature and Not A Bug August 14, 2022, 5:11 PM

    SARMAT burns it all down the best.

  • Dirk August 14, 2022, 5:56 PM

    No sir, “THEY” told “ US”, Russia was getting the pig shit stomped out of em! “THEY” also told the world “shit” tastes just like chocolate.

    Now the world’s gorging itself on this latest greatest delicacy.

    Oddly enough I’m not surprised.

    Just left the San Fran Giants game, my brother in law, just told me that Ukraine’s got the Russians surrounded, gonna drop the hammer and sickle, on Mother Russia very very soon!

    Great game, even greater Russia killer news.

    Think ill stop at Mountain Mikes Pizza palace, and pick up a meat lover’s extreme, a 12-pack of ice-cold Corona.

    Hadn’t been to a Mountain Mikes Pizza parlor in thirty years, forgotten just how good pizza really is.

    • ghostsniper August 14, 2022, 6:38 PM

      You mean the one in Roseburg?
      Then you want the PIKES PEAK All Meat Combo, Mounds of Italian sausage, pepperoni, beef, salami, linguica and ham on classic red sauce. Get the MOUNTAIN size, 20″, it’s only $53.40 plus tax. BTW, if you’re cruising thru Medford stop in and check out my ol bud Ed, mention my name and he’ll fire up a fat B52 bomber. Stay away from the Mozz sticks – they’ll bind you up.

      • Dirk August 14, 2022, 9:19 PM

        Didn’t know mountain mikes was in Roseburg. Frankly the pizzas outstanding.

  • Gordon Scott August 14, 2022, 9:39 PM

    Enjoy the Corona while you can. I am told that Corona is shutting down production at one of it’s biggest plants in northern Mexico because of water shortages.

  • KCK August 14, 2022, 9:45 PM

    I listened to the whole vid, on 2 speed mostly, because I know the data points.

    Suppose this CIA analyst is straight. OK, that’s an old joke, but so classic. Look at that fukn hairdo and his bandana. God lord, man.

    I like how the analyst is analysis-centric; he says the data and he gives his assessment. Good deal. he says over and over that we’re a capitalist democracy (but what’s his feeling about that?).

    He does contradict himself twice.

    He states that he mis-assessed the beginning of the war. I did not.

    On Aug 9th, the Ukes started their shock and awe counter-offensive by destroying nine aircraft on the runway in Crimea. Russia is employing a rag-tag combo of new recruits (50 year olds among them), some civilian contractors (mercs, and a whole front’s worth of them), claimed allies like Korea or Iran or Syrian (need to see those actually there). They continue to operate at the battalion and company level, which is a far cry from operational war fighting. Granted, the Ukes are not much better at the operational level, but they are just a little better than Ivan at coordinating an operation battle. Think about that for a minute.

    Big, big picture, and the commenter gets into it. There’s no economic upside to the Ukrainian War for Europe or the USA. And yet, we persist in lending. No, it is not enough. It seems to be only enough to perpetuate the war, which could be taken any number of ways. Fuck if I know why. NATO may be disinterested in Ukraine at many levels, but this war has been Viagra for NATO. Russia proves itself to be limp and NATO now has…no need to fill out the analysis.

    Russia and Ukraine can both claim some victory – the guest and interviewer do a fine jb of laying out various end-states to the war – and after it is done, Russia will not have “taken Ukraine”, and Ukraine will be destroyed like a crack whore on Saturday morning. It is: ugly. Tragic.

    But, fuck Russia. I can’t see them pushing their weight around after this strategic failure. Debacle is a fit word. I mean: they are ridding Ukraine of Nazis?? God, that is stupid shit in the extreme. Nazis, for fux sake.

    Europe will get oil from somewhere. As if Russian pipelines are that important. Give me a break. Who owns the oceans around Europe? I’ll wait. Jeopardy music plays…it ain’t Russia. Hahahahaha.

    Here’s what is important. We face war threats worldwide, including here in the US homeland. I’m glad Russia is pissing down his own leg; it is sweet revenge to watch. I’m interested in Biden’s wanting to find the nuclear codes, to include searching Florida villas for them. Glad he’s “on it”.

    I’m my own army and defense. Ask the cottontails we slew tonight with the .22 breakdown. I can still shoot over an open site at dusk.

    • Vanderleun August 15, 2022, 6:50 AM

      Good points… but regarding “the look” this exchange is interesting:

      Andrew Bustamante: CIA Spy | Lex Fridman Podcast #310 – YouTube

      • Casey Klahn August 15, 2022, 9:59 AM

        Delapitated (sic) brown guy. Thas some racist shit RT.

        Later I’ll write on the battle of the pocket – the Battle of Sievierodonetsk. If you know operational tactics, it is fucking the battle of fucking Borodino, only one in which the Roosks get handed their collective fucking ass.

        • Mike Austin August 16, 2022, 10:53 AM

          Your thoughts on Borodino (1812) are a bit different from those of Napoleon himself:

          “Of the fifty battles I have fought, the most terrible was that before Moscow. The French showed themselves to be worthy victors, and the Russians can rightly call themselves invincible“.

          Borodino was indeed a tactical—though Pyrrhic—victory for the French. But is was a tremendous strategic defeat for Napoleon. Kutusov retreated in good order after suffering 35,000 casualties, all of whom were easily replaced. Napoleon suffered 30,000 casualties, none of whom could be replaced. Borodino led directly to his retreat from Moscow, to his defeat at the Battle of Leipzig (1813), to the Russians occupying Paris (1814) and to Napoleon’s exile to Elba.

          It was Emperor Alexander I and his Russians who handed Napoleon’s ass to him.

          • Casey Klahn August 16, 2022, 4:19 PM

            Glad you’re up on it. It turns out that seizing Moscow for a Winter is a bad military move, as Napoleon found out. Not sure what you mean by my view. Possibly my sentence construction is too burdened. I mean to show how the Russians defeated Ukraine in the Pocket, and Ukraine actually won form a tactical and an operational standpoint.

            Stay tuned but please stop reading the opposite of what I say.

            • Mike Austin August 16, 2022, 4:34 PM

              Just a reminder of what you said, as you seem confused about it:

              “…it is fucking the battle of fucking Borodino, only one in which the Roosks get handed their collective fucking ass.”

              I was writing of Borodino, not whatever your views on Ukraine are.

              Here is a challenge for you: Try writing a paragraph without using the word “fucking”. Good luck.

              • Casey Klahn August 17, 2022, 6:01 AM

                Actually, the site editor and I are trying to troubleshoot the moderation bot. One part of that is a fuck test. So far, it appears the dirty word is allowed by the bot, and my initials are not.

                My apologies for the words.

                Mike, I am saying that the Russian taking of Sievierodonetsk is a win that actually hides a loss, or is a loss on the greater scale. This is a direct analogy of Borodino. For the readers, Napoleon defeated Russia’s greatest general, Kutusov, at Borodino, but Kutosov managed that into a win by allowing the French forward on his own timeline, and then allowing them into Moscow, and then not surrendering his army. The combination of an undefeated Russian army, the nightmare of being a constabulary force in Moscow in the wintertime, and the extreme distances from France to Moscow, caused the French to retire. In their retreat, I guess it was in Spring weather, the French were set upon by Russian cavalry the whole way like sheep by wolves.

                The Battle of the Pocket has similarities, and you won’t like what I have to say because the Ukes have shown some world class military nads.

                Since we are in a time of war, my barracks language comes out. It has the effect, I hope, of shocking people into the severity of their situation. War.

                • Vanderleun August 17, 2022, 7:06 AM

                  Edward Tufte: Posters and Graph Paper

                  POSTER: NAPOLEON’S MARCH
                  “Probably the best statistical graphic ever drawn, this map by Charles Joseph Minard portrays the losses suffered by Napoleon’s army in the Russian campaign of 1812. Beginning at the Polish-Russian border, the thick band shows the size of the army at each position. The path of Napoleon’s retreat from Moscow in the bitterly cold winter is depicted by the dark lower band, which is tied to temperature and time scales.” — Tufte

                  • Mike Austin August 17, 2022, 8:19 AM

                    Napoleon crossed from Poland into Russia with 600,000 men. When he retreated back into Poland 6 months later, his “army”—if such a ruined force of starving skeletons could be termed such—numbered 10,000, all of whom were covered in lice and most of whom were infected with typhus and dysentery.

                    Not for the last time, Napoleon abandoned his army. His first message to Paris said that “his majesty’s health has never been better.”

                • Mike Austin August 17, 2022, 7:53 AM

                  No need to apologize. It is just that I had to hear that word out of the mouths of babes every day during my 27 years of teaching. Now I am so averse to it that any utterance or writing of it makes me reach for my revolver—in a manner of speaking.

                  As for Napoleon: I am just finishing up the 4 volumes of historical novels about the Great Corsican by Max Gallo. Highly recommended.

                  I can see the following errors Napoleon made in his career that led to Saint Helena:

                  1. The invasion of Egypt.
                  2. His refusal to abide by the Peace of Amiens.
                  3. The Continental System.
                  4. Nepotism.
                  5. His making himself emperor of France.
                  6. The invasion of Spain.
                  7. The invasion of Russia.
                  8. His refusal to accept Metternich’s peace terms after Leipzig.

                  Waterloo was, in Wellington’s words, “the nearest-run thing you ever saw in your life.” Napoleon should have won it.

                  • KCK August 17, 2022, 11:10 AM

                    Now that’s the second book series I’ll have added to my read list. This place is filling my reading list fast.

                    Napoleon did invent 3G War, so I feel his place in military history is near the top. Defeats notwithstanding.

                    I like your list and it’s interesting.

                    Gerard, that is the graphic of all graphics. I see that it was Winter when the retreat occurred, which makes you think: fucking Winter in Moscow! The French couldn’t take half a Winter there.

                  • Mike Austin August 17, 2022, 12:34 PM

                    I go back and forth with the following: “Who is the greatest captain in History?” Always Caesar, Alexander and Napoleon are the 3 vying for top billing. Each has his attributes:

                    1. Alexander: Never lost a battle. Commanded an army at 16, the Macedonian cavalry at 18, was king at 20, and had conquered most of the known world at 25.

                    2. Caesar: Defeated the finest captains and armies of his age, though so many times he came within an inch of destruction. Not only a general of renown, but an orator in an age of orators, a historian and a seducer of women second only to Casanova.

                    3. Napoleon: He defeated coalitions of modern states allied against him time after time after time. Who can ignore Marengo? Austerlitz? Jena? Friedland? Wagram?

                    Send me your address via my email and I will send the 4 Max Gallo volumes to you. I am almost done with the last of the series, “The Immortal Man of Saint Helena”.

  • Jim August 14, 2022, 11:50 PM

    I have no idea who is winning, will win, or will lose this war. But I have a sketchy feeling every time some CIA person goes public. The CIA has a pretty lousy record-missed 200,000 Soviet Troops marching into Afghanistan. Was among many saying that the soviet union would not die, and would be around for a long time-this in the mid 80’s.
    My Israeli friends laugh when the CIA is mentioned. They like the high tech satellites and tech. But have a low opinion of the operational capability of the CIA-whether in Ukraine, Russia, the middle east or back to Vietnam days.
    Many if not most of our alphabet agencies have proven to be incompetent. I would think our support of the people fighting there is good, but am sure that millions have gone missing or found there way back to Washington DC, just like in the middle east.
    during the Vietnam era, The CIA financed and ran airlines that smuggled opium and heroin out for profit.
    Information from both sides in this war is questionable- If the source is an intelligence agency, I tend to trust it less.

    • ghostsniper August 15, 2022, 4:17 AM

      Jim sed: “Many if not most of our alphabet agencies have proven to be incompetent.”
      If you sed: “The entire US gov’t has proven itself incompetent at all things.”, you’d be correct.
      Start observing it as the largest criminal enterprise in world history and the pieces fall into place.
      It’s the lack of accountability that is at the root of it all.

  • Dirk August 15, 2022, 9:29 PM

    Yup, with the good guys,,,,,,,that would be us,,,,,,,,teaching the krainians how just how it works, their sure to win.

    just like we did in Vietnam,
    That Peaceful island nation kinda sorta near Cuba,

    and that sand box gig and her halfbreed cousins Afghanistan and Iraq.

    Our govt would be in serious deep Shit if someone took the simple word, “ treason” seriously. We could boil the entire govt, the MIC and a few friends in boiling oil.

    This war, like the last 100 wars is about money. I’m amused when I here honor, bravery, other bravado coming out of the mouths of our fearless leaders.

  • Casey Klahn August 17, 2022, 2:12 PM

    Mike Austin, I sent it, and thanks for your great generosity. You’re a Christina, and a scholar.

    I never thought about the greatest Captain of History – just the group of them and who belongs in or out. Fascinating. Just off the top of my head, the first name that came to me was Alexander.

    I am also interested in the also-rans. Those who do not qualify for the list because of the size of their command, but if there were a sub-listing, many of my great heroes would be there. Patton, Guderian (not a hero, but anyway), Lee and Grant. Possibly MacArthur.

    • Mike Austin August 17, 2022, 3:23 PM

      I was thinking the same thing: What of the also-rans? You provided a great list. I would add Subutai, Belisarius, Custer, Alcibiades, Hannibal, Lucullus, Cortez, Joshua, Achilles, the Lionheart and the two Scipios. But such lists could take up many a debate!

      I will send those Gallo books in the next week. The last volume deals with Napoleon after his retreat from Russia. After Gallo comes books about the US Army in the Pacific, Maximillian of Mexico, and the Conquistadors.