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Rant0matic 16: Hong Kong Now = USA (Soon) [ Bumped Because Comments]

The usually calm, pious and thoughtful David Warren types for me in Looking ahead : Essays in Idleness

When the next American Civil War starts, I imagine it will look something like Hong Kong: a big melee spreading through all public spaces (I note that USA is bigger than Hong Kong). But there will be fairly limited casualties, at first, each of which will become the subject of unrestrained media outrage, until the media collapse under physical reprisals.

Later, the better and better-armed demonstrators, on both sides, will tactically “evolve.”

“I don’t expect the death toll to be more than a few hundred thousand”


The surveillance state itself will begin to disintegrate and with it any hope of restoring public order, through agencies such as police, courts, and prisons. Things like border surveillance will be abandoned, with immediate consequences, but as the attraction of going to the States diminishes, no one will mind.

More noticeably, the economy will break down. Because the American military was designed chiefly to defend against foreign powers, on a very large scale — and the threat will instead be domestic and scattered — the Army will be (at first) effectively neutralized. Isolated firefights between Democrat and Republican soldiers will escalate to firefights between ships and aeroplanes, but these will end fairly quickly as a Pentagon dictatorship seizes control.

Within a year, I expect, though only a small part of their arsenal will prove useful, bullet-enforced curfews will restore relative peace to the streets. I don’t expect the death toll to be more than a few hundred thousand, at least from direct conflict as the guns come out. Interruptions of food supply, and the spread of disease, will cost much more — but possibly less (proportionately) than in the last Civil War, in which both sides were better organized.

That it will spread to Canada, I cannot doubt, developing from the refugee crisis across “the world’s longest undefended border,” as snowflakes of all descriptions, by their millions, run for their lives, then resume their clashes up here.

Mexico would also suffer from this “white flight,” except, the chaos from Mexican cartels’ energetic efforts to reclaim significant parts of Texas, California, and the Southwest, would have the paradoxical effect of ending the outbound refugee traffic there.

For the most part, other foreign countries would avoid direct engagement. Instead, Islamist and Socialist regimes around the world would be busy consolidating their own local positions, sparking numerous “little wars” by their attempts at regional expansion. Each would be settled as the larger and more ruthless power won…

RTWT @Looking ahead : Essays in Idleness

Comments on this entry are closed.

  • Donald Sensing October 10, 2019, 1:37 PM

    If Trump lasts in the Oval Office to make it to election day, and if he wins, the Second Civil War will begin that very night. I addition to the well-planned riots, the well-armed factions of Antifa (they have such, even today, and they are not pansy men) will strike hard. After that I make no predictions.

    If Trump loses, the SCW will start the next year, probably impelled when certain 2A advocates realize for sure that the Dems’ talk about disarming them is no joke.

    God, how do I warn my children?

  • ghostsniper October 10, 2019, 1:58 PM

    I see a lot of problems in this synapses, primarily from lack of research.
    Lets start here: shouting leads to rioting leads to looting leads to shooting leads to organized property protectors

    If the gov’t ceases the EBT and other freebz the urban ghettos will ignite quickly and burn with a fervor you can’t imagine. The pisswilly butterballs will be slaughtered in mass on a scale never seen before. Both of these things are probably good overall for the country. “Too many people, and not enough eyes to see…”.

    If the gov’t ceases the welfare it also won’t have the coin to pay the pension funds and over the top salaries of the employee parasites and they will abandon ship post haste, looking for another way to keep the conveyor to their gaping maw moving.

    Soldiers? Please. The ones in red high heels or the ones on paternity leave? The whole thing is a hollow suit. 5 gallons of gas and a bag of mothballs will make a bradley glow in the night, same with the f-35’s.

    Out here in the fields, we fight for our meals, we don’t need to be forgiven. It’ll be tough and many won’t make it but for those that do it will be a brand new day with lighter yokes.

  • Donald Sensing October 10, 2019, 2:35 PM

    My post in response: “The coming Next American Civil War.”

  • Bill October 10, 2019, 4:09 PM

    All I know is I take great effort in finding the home addresses of ALL media douches, hollywood douches, and as many political douches as I can. Including their children…

  • Fred October 10, 2019, 5:02 PM
  • Casey Klahn October 10, 2019, 9:06 PM

    As with most “what ifs,” anything past the coin toss is a complete mystery. In this, Rev. Sensing is completely correct. Better to assess the strengths and weaknesses of yourself, and the potential other guy. Ghostie has it right in episodic fashion; this will spark this and so on.

    The ever-watchable Liberty Doll reports tonight on a Fla man getting SWATted for a blog post. Fuhking right, baby. Whatever will happen to you will be unconstitutional, morally bereft, and will hurt your feelings big time. Get over that now.

    Figure out what will keep you alive, and what will totally destroy the other guy’s initiative and will. Keep in mind that the American rifleman has 300 million guns, and he knows how to hit his target with them. If the maneuver space is media and technology, that has umpteen hundred weaknesses. I think DC will see that its authority and the mindset of the US military are vastly more divergent than they now know. The military will only fight the people so much, and then the truth will out. BTW, I can run an armored brigade. Ahem.

  • H October 11, 2019, 5:42 AM

    “The military will only fight the people so much”

    I hope you’re right about that, Casey. In the late unpleasantness now quaintly referred to as CW1, folks living in the “burnt areas” of Missouri, the Shenandoah Valley and Georgia/Carolina learned that the limit to which the military fought the people was all the way to the bitter end. No offense……..

    It will be bad. As in, the collapse of civilization at the end of Atlas Shrugged spiced up with the bloodletting of The Purge without an overnight time limit. We were still on the whole a moral people in 1865, but I don’t see that obtains these days. It will be far worse than we can imagine and any thoughts that China and Russia, let alone the hordes below the border, will stay out of it, one way or the other, are mindless.

  • Bunny October 11, 2019, 7:14 AM

    Also David Warren and on a more hopeful note, come what may. We can game it out however we want, we don’t have the final say. He’s referring to an Extinction Event, but it applies to CWII, as well, in my view.

    “The world, as I mentioned, is not coming to an end, until God wills it. We are merely making it more miserable for ourselves to live and die here.

    Perhaps gentle reader is already aware that I am a fervent Reactionary, and an enemy of all Change and Revolution that cannot lead to Heaven. A Reactionary must, after all, ‘accentuate the positive.’

    The paradox is that these people can only be defeated by joy, and a love that cannot be reduced to lubricity. I invite gentle reader to look on joyfully: for notwithstanding the occasional inconvenience, the Kingdom of God is always at hand, today as yesterday and forever.”

    Prognostication/preparation is usually worthless in the face of cataclysm. Nobody knows how it would work out in actuality. In the famous, or infamous, words of Rumsfeld, ” There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know. ” The media/propagandists like to keep people stirred up.

  • John The River October 11, 2019, 7:27 AM

    It was not suddenly bred.
    It will not swiftly abate.
    Through the chilled years ahead,
    When Time shall count from the date
    That the American began to hate.

  • Bunny October 11, 2019, 7:42 AM

    I guess I just have apocalypse fatigue. They all look like game show hosts to me.

  • Casey Klahn October 11, 2019, 7:46 AM

    My compliments, H. In the war between the states, you had a far different human and geographic terrain. That was South vs North; in the so-called CWII, we are imagining the army vs the people.

    My honest evaluation is that it will be more like an American Counter-Revolution. We exist in a state of constant violence against the idea of “The State;” the 2A is a violence doctrine and it is ongoing. We never left the revolution. When the feds or the states come for our guns, this will be their counter-revolution. It won’t be about secession or states rights or slave-owning. It will be the state vs the people.

    Interestingly, the us military member takes an oath to uphold the constitution, not the state. In a spooky sort of prescience, Lt. Calley inadvertently reminded us that the soldier must follow only lawful orders. As it is, the Left knows it must suspend the law in order to confiscate. “Red Flag,” indeed.

  • Sid V October 11, 2019, 9:24 AM

    “until the media collapse under physical reprisals”

    Exactly. I know they’re my first priority if it ever comes to blows.

  • OneGuy October 11, 2019, 9:32 AM

    I don’t see a real civil war or revolution coming. Possibly riots, the left likes riots and unleashes them when it serves their purposes. Possibly targeted attacks by far left groups, like we saw in the 60’s, using bombs or chemicals etc. I do think that Antifa is the left wing Brown shirts and will at some point be amped up and unleashed. But most Americans, certainly the entire middle class and most of the lower class will stay at home and continue to live their life and neither participate nor encourage it. My concern is what the swamp will do and what the elite and pro globalists will do. Obviously if Trump loses and or is impeached they will gain power and I am concerned with how they will use that power.

  • James ONeil October 11, 2019, 10:47 AM

    Personally I suspect if we don’t have a major revolution, be it violent or non-violent, we will see the last days of civilization. Europe is pretty much gone, importing the stone age from Africa and Asia. Australia’s following Europe’s lead. South America is a bunch of dysfunctional banana republics. China, Japan, not sure, ’cause they really are inscrutable orientals.

    California’s been called a bellwether for the US and still is with shit on the sidewalks, blue tarp communities, sanctuary shitties (excuse me cities), diseases that we thought were wiped out, and electric power denied millions to prevent forest fires.

    Perhaps, sitting up here on top of the world, where, when a storm holding up a few barges from the lower forty eight means the grocery store shelves will be empty in a few days, I’m more cognizant of just how thin the thread is holding civilization together.

    None the less, I’ve my one hundred and fourteen acres, a (Kawasaki) Mule and shank’s mare as a backup. Everyone in my family knows how to kill, dress, cook anything from a moose to, if necessary a field mouse.

    Alas the Boy Scouts are long gone but I suggest every thinking person need take their motto to heart; Be Prepared.

  • Bad_Brad October 11, 2019, 11:55 AM

    Speaking of California, two weeks ago Ventura county Sheriffs Department canceled a fund raiser because “Conservatives” were booked for the event. Their press release basically stated they didn’t want conservative scum showing up in their county. Shortly after that L.A. PD attacked Breitbart for reasons Breitbart still can’t figure out. That same week that agency announced it would not hire conservatives. However gang bangers are cool. On the bright side at least they have had experience with a gun.
    Northern California counties, Trump Country, has been with out power due to high winds for the last 4 days. However there has been zero wind, and small industrial areas surrounded by dark residential areas still have power. Pretty sure they’re the same transmission lines.
    Is this a dry run on how Liberal States punish Trump voters on his upcoming victory? Maybe I need more tinfoil.

  • ghostsniper October 11, 2019, 5:27 PM

    @Brad, Children can be quite creative when they set their minds to it.
    Can you put a hole in a milk jug at 100 yards 30 times in 10 seconds?

  • Bad_Brad October 12, 2019, 2:02 PM

    “@Brad, Children can be quite creative when they set their minds to it.
    Can you put a hole in a milk jug at 100 yards 30 times in 10 seconds?”

    I can. And I can take a 6.5 Creedmoor out to a grand. I just ordered a 6.5 PRC bolt gun. I’m an 07 manufacturer.
    I’m actually better with a pistol.

  • MMurcek October 13, 2019, 5:55 AM

    “I’m not saying we won’t get our hair mussed, but no more than 15-20 million killed, tops. Depending on the breeze.”

    Gen. Buck Turgidson, USAF, Dr. Strangelove