Noted in Passing: The “Keeping Supply from Demand” Trend Accelerates
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WHEN in the course of human Events, it becomes necessary….
Welcome to the New American Digest: 2003-2020
Gerard Van der Leun
Stone-cutters fighting time with marble, you foredefeated
Challengers of oblivion
Eat cynical earnings, knowing rock splits, records fall down,
The square-limbed Roman letters
Scale in the thaws, wear in the rain. The poet as well
Builds his monument mockingly;
For man will be blotted out, the blithe earth die, the brave sun
Die blind and blacken to the heart:
Yet stones have stood for a thousand years, and pained
thoughts found
The honey of peace in old poems.
— Robinson Jeffers
His soul stretched tight across the skies
That fade behind a city block,
Or trampled by insistent feet
At four and five and six o’clock;
And short square fingers stuffing pipes,
And evening newspapers, and eyes
Assured of certain certainties,
The conscience of a blackened street
Impatient to assume the world.
I am moved by fancies that are curled
Around these images, and cling:
The notion of some infinitely gentle
Infinitely suffering thing.
Wipe your hand across your mouth, and laugh;
The worlds revolve like ancient women
Gathering fuel in vacant lots.
— Eliot
I CELEBRATE myself, and sing myself,
And what I assume you shall assume,
For every atom belonging to me as good belongs to you.
I loafe and invite my soul,
I lean and loafe at my ease observing a spear of summer grass.
My tongue, every atom of my blood, form’d from this soil, this
air,
Born here of parents born here from parents the same, and their
parents the same,
I, now thirty-seven years old in perfect health begin,
Hoping to cease not till death.
— Walt Whitman
The scientists are in terror
and the European mind stops
Wyndham Lewis chose blindness
rather than have his mind stop.
Night under wind mid garofani,
the petals are almost still
Mozart, Linnaeus, Sulmona,
When one’s friends hate each other
how can there be peace in the world?
Their asperities diverted me in my green time.
A blown husk that is finished
but the light sings eternal
a pale flare over marshes
where the salt hay whispers to tide’s change
Time, space,
neither life nor death is the answer.
And of man seeking good,
doing evil.
In meiner Heimat
where the dead walked
and the living were made of cardboard.
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It’s not the local lumber yards or the timber growers that are making a killing off the lumber. It’s Weyerhauser, Georgia Pacific and a couple of other major lumber companies. Part of it is because of covid-19 and the fact that a lot of sawmills were shut down because of it. And because they can.
Look at how lumber prices fluctuate when ever there is a major hurricane expected to hit. Nine months ago, you could buy a sheet of 3/4″ A/C plywood for about 35 bucks. Now it’s 75 bucks a sheet. A 2x12x16 foot timber that cost less then 20 bucks a year ago is now 75 bucks. Even ratty 1/4″ utility OSB is 30 bucks. It’s outrageous.
Lowes, Suffolk VA
2x4x8’ $7.09
Black. Market. Everything.
There are a whole lot of factors involved. A contractor in Phoenix area was able to get 2X4s for a lot less than the Home Depot/Lowes price because he talks to people and knows independent lumber yards all over. They are not smooth sawn, like the big box lumber, but they work just fine.
The house I lived in in Minneapolis went up in price seven percent in 30 days. That’s crazy. But crazy can persist longer than your own common sense, so one is foolish to bet against it. At this point the underlying rot in Minneapolis is obvious to me, but others only see the $$$ as the market rockets upward.
Lowes, Columbus, IN
2x4x8′ $7.58
More than double a year ago.
Here in Fairbanks, Alaska
8 foot 2×4, surfaced, imported from the lower forty eight $7.54
8 foot 2×4, rough cut, locally harvested, oddly enough $8.30
The longer it sits the more valuable it is becoming. But the increases aren’t all due to increased demand as shortage of shipping also acts to lower the supply. I work in manufactured housing and my sister plant and I buy as much lumber as shown in the picture every week. Our production is currently sold out for the next year and no matter how much lumber, OSB, and other building supplies go up we are contracted to produce those homes at an agreed upon price so we have to keep buying. What should have been a great year is now a matter of hanging on until prices drop thanks to our extended backlog and lead times. Interesting times.
Several several years ago, my boss had contracted to build a couple of semi custom homes. At the time the bids were made, OSB sheathing was priced at 5 bucks a sheet. But then Hurricane Andrew happened and prices went through the roof, so to speak. OSB went up to 12 bucks a sheet overnight, but Lowe’s and Home Depot just happened to be selling it at ten bucks a sheet. They also had a price match guarantee plus ten percent discount. I made a couple of phone calls around and ended up getting it from Lowe’s for eight bucks a sheet. I ordered 12 units @ 64 sheets per unit and saved the company a bunch of money. Lowe’s didn’t like it, but they were stuck because of the wording. ( They learned from their mistake.)
For your Biden first year bingo cards: fuel shortages up next. I’m not making predictions for what’ll happen under Biden because the actual answer to what bad will come from Biden is: everything you can imagine!
BTW, I am trying to read up on the wood prices and I am befuddled. I do know one thing: the logger gets screwed, again.
Okay, on Biden, I just realized this one: he’s in line to become the greatest democrat president ever. How do I predict this? Because he will pass into law more spending than probably any single dem president, and probably most of them put together! He will make the New Deal and the Great Society look like a bean dish.
Learn It. Live it. Love it.
“I stumbled on this yesterday”. You have never been there before? You were unaware if its existence until yesterday? How can you conclude that the amount of lumber present is more or less than at any other time? How can you make any reasonable assessment of the rate that lumber is currently entering or leaving the yard, or how that rate compares to any other time?
Given the amount of bare ground visible it is possible to stack much more lumber while retaining room for passage. It is as likely that the volume present today is less than average as it is that it is above average.
Yes, lumber and all wood products (and steel and plastics and glass and roofing and insulation) have increased dramatically in price and vary in price and availability from day to day at these higher prices. Many other things have as well (food, fuel, appliances), though maybe not in the same degree. (We have not seen the extent of the inflation to come.) Mills report reopening and full production and the final products are being bought and used. I haven’t heard of anyone hoarding building materials, it all appears to be used. Lumber futures remain up though are now fluctuating a little up and down at these higher rates.
The rate of building will slow as the current need (and perceived need) is satisfied, and probably to a point below seasonal or yearly averages. No one knows when or for how long. I’m guessing we won’t see an autumn surge this year. Prices and volume will respond accordingly.