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Nordstream: In which I admit I might (MIGHT) have been wrong but confess to being as stupid as I always have been

From the New American Digest comes Nordstream Redux: A Correction

The wise and venerable Lawdog offers a much more mundane and rational explanation of the evaporation of the Nordstream pipeline than the reports echoed here a few days back concerning a stealth attack by the US. This is not to say that such an attack did not happen but only as a caution to myself and others; a caution that reminds me yet again to, as the old saying goes, “Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by simple stupidity.”

Of course, the other old saying about “the fog of war” holds true as well. Lawdog himself experienced this after the “discovery” of his “theory” brought him some extreme attention from some giants of the Right Commetariat such as Instapundit and PJM. This “attention” blew him right off the internet itself

READ THE WHOLE THING From the New American Digest comes Nordstream Redux: A Correction BEFORE YOU READ THE WHOLE THING AT LAWDOG’S.

Comments on this entry are closed.

  • Univ of Saigon 68 October 9, 2022, 9:00 AM

    Still ‘Bandwidth Limit Exceeded’ at Lawdog as of 11:50 AM EDT 10/9.

    Just my opinion after sampling the different theories, but I think the U.S. did it. Motive, means, opportunity. While I’m sure somebody knows the truth, we peons probably never will. We’re still arguing about if Lee Harvey Oswald shot JFK.

    (Don’t get me started on the Kennedy assassination.)

    • hooodathunkit October 9, 2022, 7:10 PM

      Oswald didn’t tell a press conference he’d shoot Kennedy if he came to Dallas. Oswald didn’t have the Asst Sec of State tell Congress they’d shoot Kennedy if he went to Dallas, which Congress listened to this and had no objection or questions.

      For a more common example, if Pappa tells young RandyJoe “I’ll cut your throat if you date my daughter LucyLewd”; and afterwards LucyLewd and RandyJoe date. The next morning RandyJoe is found with his throat cut. Who’s the first suspect you’d investigate?

      Everyone in Europe (deplorable people, business people, and non-politicians) are unanimous the US either did it or helped another country do it. Such is the reputation we’ve earned. But since Americans don’t speak or read European languages anymore, how can we know?

  • Callmelennie October 9, 2022, 9:27 AM

    Examples of slip shod construction that come from the Soviet era, like Chernobyl, should always be taken with this grain of salt …. As time went on in the 70’s and 80’s and the USA and its Allies were pulling away from the USSR in terms of technology, the powers that be demanded that corners be cut in every way in order to “keep up” And if it was necessary to tell a few white lies and hide negative data, so be it. The image of the USSR as the colossus whose triumph was inevitable had to be maintained

    So Chernobyl was inevitable. The HBO series about Chernobyl illustrates this clearly. As for modern day Russians, they DO have this dichotomy of being great scientists and engineers and designers while retaining an anarchic, almost manic depressive aspect. So you cant rule out what this gentleman says. It sure sounds impressive.

    But then again, what of the statement that Biden made. If Russia invades, we will end Nordstrom. And when he was asked, “How can you end a vital arrangement between Russia and Germany if you are not a party to that arrangement.” The only possible answer is sabotage. And the US has the means to do it and the opportunity. The US Navy was conducting operations right at the very spot the explosion happened

  • greg October 9, 2022, 9:41 AM

    If the pipe ruptured from inside out a photo of the damage would be obvious. The pipe bent outwards compared to external explosion bending pipe towards the inside? I was expecting the glass tube to shatter outwards, but it didn’t. A neat youtube video would show real time pressurized pipe failing from explosions inside verses outside. I will bet that the public will never be shown what really happened.

    • james wilson October 9, 2022, 1:04 PM

      Not sure but sabotage might not show pipe bending inwards. Thermite for one example.

  • Casey Klahn October 9, 2022, 12:08 PM

    My own progression on the event has been total darkness about who, what or why, then I ran the possibilities and gamed it in my head. Since I could not find the upside for either DC or Moscow, I leaned on the third party idea. When the Lawdog expert witness blog was written, it made total sense of the event.

    My friends. You must keep honing your logic, because it will be your very last friend when you’re up against certain hell. No one can be dispassionate in every theory, but if for no other reason than that the contemporary world is morally opposed to you thinking rationally: do it to piss them off.

  • ghostsniper October 9, 2022, 12:45 PM

    Who, in this, has a very long and provable history of lying?

    Who, in this, has said they would do it?

    What kind of entity doesn’t care if you think they are lying or not?

  • james wilson October 9, 2022, 1:11 PM

    Impressive account on the nature of undersea gas pipeline.

    The Russian pipelines were built by European companies. I am curious to know why European companies are not the ones to maintain them.

    • hooodathunkit October 9, 2022, 7:20 PM

      …why European companies are not the ones to maintain them.
      But they are.
      Nord Stream AG is a Swiss company held by Gazprom (Russian) 51% and the remainder German (30%), Dutch(10%), and French (9%). Russians operate the Russian end, and Germans operate the German receiving end.

      They contract out the construction and maintenance, which is why Nord Stream 1 was cut-off. A compressor turbine was sent to the (Canadian) maker for repairs, who then couldn’t ship it back due to sanctions. Now the turbine seems lost, but neither Nordstream or Gazprom has it.

  • Bill Henry October 9, 2022, 2:30 PM

    Walks like a duck….
    Quacks like a duck….
    Looks like a duck….
    Probably a duck….
    USA did it…

  • waitingForTheStorm October 10, 2022, 3:38 AM

    I read LawDog’s dissertation before all of the piqued interest capped his bandwidth; I believe it was just a couple of days ago. His arguments seemed sensical and consistent with other debacles I saw in large organizations married to particular experts and entrenched interests. What success I managed to achieve was in, largely, ignoring their expert analyses and developing purely evidence-based hypotheses that were verifiable and testable. The challenge was overcoming the “appeal to authority” fallacy; but, mountains of data and solid logical analyses won the day.

  • Casey Klahn October 10, 2022, 6:13 AM

    I note that Trump is saying important and thoughtful stuff on the rally circuit (campaign trail). He calls for a negotiated end to the Russo-Ukraine War or else we’ll stumble into WWIII. It ought to be an easy sell to the US and NATO, but for some reason, and a lot of us think nefarious reasons, that “sell” is hard to make. It is an obvious hard sell to Ukraine, who wants Crimea back and is making some interesting kinetic moves to get it back. Putin is intransigent, and he’s like that guy who shoots himself in the foot and then finds that appealing enough that he just keeps shooting his fucking foot over and over again.

    WWKD? Meaning: Kissinger, whom many hate but in my lifetime of watching him, since the actual 1960s, I note his take on international affairs is solid. He wants a return to the status quo ante, where Russia has a fair amount of pull in the world, but stays in its own lane and beats its Peter the Great (story) and tries to look regal while all the while looks like a jealous redheaded stepchild. That Russia: we want you back. Please come back, we promise to respect you for your bigness and your culture and your hardy babushka lifting tree-trunks profile. Your soldiery, the ones whose legacy includes dying for the allied wins in WWII, and defeating Napoleon, has been temporarily but badly sullied. We promise to look away when you march past, and not snicker too loudly at your MayDay parades. Hell, I’ll even buy you a vodka if it’ll make you less haywire.

    I digress. Kissinger says negotiate. Trump says negotiate. I’d say that’s a good idea, too. How about giving Crimea to the UN? (waits for his laugh line to sink in…)

  • bob sykes October 10, 2022, 9:24 AM

    Evidently Lawdog thinks the US government took down the WTC. Or that Oswald killed Kennedy. Shoot! He probably thinks Sirhan Sirhan killed Robert, and that James Earl Ray killed MLK.

    Methane (or any fuel) in a pipeline is not explosive. Even a leaking pipeline or a leaking LNG carrier is not explosive. For methane the explosive limits in a fuel air mixture are about 4% to 13% methane by volume. When pipeline or tanks rupture, you get a large bubble of gas that mixes with air only on its surface. The surface mixture burns, but does not explode. NASA did a lot of experiments of hydrogen storage tanks rupturing. Lots of fires. No explosions. Think Hindenberg.

    • Dirk October 10, 2022, 11:28 AM

      Thank you Bob, an Explosion created the Implosion. ! It’s just how it works.
      But then hey I don’t have my very own blog site with sixty followers , what the fuck do I know.

  • anonymous October 10, 2022, 11:04 AM

    Lawdog bandwidth makes his site not available this morning — October 10 at 12:00noon

  • Steve (retired/recovering lawyer) October 10, 2022, 3:11 PM

    I’m coming to this thread pretty late, so I don’t expect anyone to read this, but for what it’s worth, it doesn’t matter whodunnit.

    What matters is what the various players in the game think about whodunnit. Neither the Nordstream explosions nor the Kerch bridge bombing has been positively hung on anyone and there are, again, a whole slew of potential suspects, ranging from the ones with an obvious ax to grind to the opposite number who might have pulled off a false flag operation. Anything can become the casus belli, notwithstanding “the truth.”

    For example, from the ever-reviled (but in this case accurate) WIKIPEDIA entry on the onset of WW I:
    By 1914, the European great powers were divided between the Triple Entente, comprising France, Russia, and Britain, and the Triple Alliance, containing Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy. Tensions in the Balkans came to a head on 28 June 1914 following the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the Austro-Hungarian heir, by Gavrilo Princip, a Bosnian Serb. Austria-Hungary blamed Serbia, which led to the July Crisis, an unsuccessful attempt to avoid conflict through diplomacy. Russia came to Serbia’s defence following Austria-Hungary’s declaration of war on the latter on 28 July, and by 4 August, the system of alliances drew in Germany, France, and Britain, along with their respective colonies, although Italy remained neutral. In November 1914 the Ottoman Empire, Germany, and Austria-Hungary formed the Central Powers, while in April 1915, Italy joined Britain, France, Russia and Serbia as the Allies of World War I.

    So, as one can see, it was never proven that Princip was actually acting on behalf or at the behest of ANYONE. It was enough to touch off the hostilities, nonetheless, that the rulers of the hostile powers THOUGHT he was doing so, or maybe just needed an excuse to start the hostilities. Same with the Sino-Japanese war began with the “Mukden Incident” in 1931 when upstart Japanese Army junior officers blew up a Chinese train and blamed it on the Chinese.

    Neither the Emperor nor the General Staff actually wanted to go to war with China at that time, but it happened, sure as shit. Same with these unexplained explosions in and around Ukraine and Russia. I hope that cooler heads will prevail (somebody please listen to Kissinger and Musk if you don’t want to heed Trump’s advice), but it’s pretty clear that Putin ain’t gonna back down, so his position is going to require a lot of concessions from Zelensky and the Ukrainian supporters in NATO.

    • Dirk October 10, 2022, 3:49 PM

      What could possibly be the intended end result? They’ve tanked the worlds economy, they’ve got nowhere to run except a world war.

    • Vanderleun October 11, 2022, 7:08 AM

      Well, I read it, Steve, and I concur most heartedly.

  • leelu October 11, 2022, 7:02 AM

    Don’t lose hope.
    Ignorance can be fixed.
    *Stupid is forever.