Miriam Goldstein asks and answers: Is there really six times more plastic than plankton in the North Pacific Gyre?
The Algalita Marine Research Foundation is great at raising awareness of the problem of trash in the North Pacific Gyre. They've tirelessly lobbied for political change, coined terms like "plastic soup," worked in the schools, and are sailing the Junk raft to Hawaii as we speak. However, as part of their quest to make the enormity of the plastic problem understood, they've been claiming that there is six time more plastic than plankton in the North Pacific Gyre. The 6:1 ratio has appeared in PBS, The Seattle Times, and has been repeated all over the internet.Goldstein's three main points (with corresponding explanations at the link) are:Though I admire Algalita's work, the 6:1 plastic:plankton ratio is deeply flawed. Worse, it is flawed in a direction that undermines Algalita's credibility: It may vastly underestimate plankton and overestimate plastic. Here's why, based off the methodology published in Moore et al's 2001 paper in Marine Pollution Bulletin.
1) The mesh in the net was too big, and half the samples were taken at the wrong time of day....Goldstein gives more credit, in my opinion, to Algalita than they deserve. Surely they knew of the flaws in their work. It is not that complicated. But it would seem that the motivation to drive "the mission statement," "the preconceived notion," and -- most important -- the funding of the foundation is more important than the truth. It's the "I've got mine, Jack" system of science. And it is despicable.2) The 6:1 ratio is based off dry weight, but plankton is 95% water.....
3. Plankton populations fluctuate wildly, and maybe plastic does too.
Algalita is unlikely to recant or even re-investigate. Their sloppy science, like so many other sloppy science scams, is working for them. The "Plastic soup that is the Sea" is the foundation's founding myth told by the reverend father. Such religious tall tales are never sunk. While there's no doubt there's plastic garbage in the ocean, there's also a lot of garbage in Algalita's party line.
Posted by Vanderleun at June 14, 2008 11:11 AM | TrackBackThanks for the pointer. One of the topics in my statistics courses is the careless use and deceptive misuse of summary statistics; this one's a keeper. Six-to-one takes the cake!
Posted by: mike anderson at June 14, 2008 2:01 PMDoes it really matter what the exact figures are? Items of trivial mass can do damage all out of proportion to that mass. Exhibit 1; plastic bags, mass maybe 1 gram each, one of which is quite capable of killing a turtle (they eat jellyfish, and the bags look just like them). Exhibit 2; discarded or broken bits of drift netting drowning albatrosses (which are already endangered).
"Go forth and multiply and subdue the earth" did not mean "Go forth and multiply until there is no room for anything else, and scatter your indestructible trash all over air, land and sea".
In places other than the USA, the idea that fouling your own nest is a bad idea seems to be taking root. Major retail chains have started switching from plastic to paper carrier bags, for example. And the ones that have not done it yet (usually because it would take expensive refits to do so) now ask whether one actually wants a bag, or just charge for them.
And of course, in places other than the USA, adult attitudes to fuel efficiency appear to be taking root, as well.
Posted by: Fletcher Christian at June 17, 2008 1:45 AM"It is impossible to speak in such a way that you cannot be misunderstood." -- Karl Popper N.B.: Comments are moderated to combat spam and may not appear immediately. Comments that exceed the obscenity or stupidity limits will be either edited or expunged.