August 8, 2014

Pay up or nobody will get warmer!


"My guess is the IPCC will pay.

The ransom is peanuts next to the monies government expects to generate with Global Warming regulations. Your thoughts?" Missing Global Warming Close To A Solution? | William M. Briggs

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Updated list of 29 excuses for the 18 year 'pause' in global warming "If you can't explain the 'pause', you can't explain the cause..."


Posted by gerardvanderleun at August 8, 2014 8:17 AM
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"It is impossible to speak in such a way that you cannot be misunderstood." -- Karl Popper N.B.: Comments are moderated and may not appear immediately. Comments that exceed the obscenity or stupidity limits will be either edited or expunged.

Don't You Think This Climate Bit's Done Got Out Of Hand? (Apologies to Waylon.)

Posted by: BillH at August 8, 2014 9:45 AM

CO2 change, and therefore human activity, does not cause global warming. The reason is that terrestrial radiation absorbed by CO2 is immediately thermalized, i.e. the energy absorbed by CO2 is handed over (in a process similar to thermal conduction) to other atmospheric molecules which outnumber CO2 molecules 2500 to 1. CO2 can only absorb terrestrial EMR that has wave length 14-16 microns out of the significant range 5-50 microns of terrestrial radiation. The absorption/thermalization quickly depletes the 14-16 micron radiation flux coming from the surface.

But this leaves the question of what actually does drive average global temperature change.

After some research to find out what causes climate change. . .

Two primary drivers of average global temperature have been identified. A simple equation, using only them, very accurately explains the reported up and down measurements since before 1900. The coefficient of determination, R2>0.9 (correlation coefficient = 0.95). The equation provides credible estimates back to the low temperatures of the Little Ice Age (1610). The current trend is down.

R2 = 0.9049 considering only sunspots and ocean cycles.
R2 = 0.9061 considering sunspots, ocean cycles and CO2 change.
The tiny difference in R2, whether considering CO2 or not, corroborates that CO2 change has no significant effect on climate.

The coefficients of determination are a measure of how accurately the calculated average global temperatures compare with measured. R2 > 0.9 is very accurate.

The calculations use data since before 1900 which are official, accepted as valid and are publicly available.

Solar cycle duration or magnitude, considered separately, fail to correlate but their combination, expressed as the time-integral of solar cycle anomalies, gives excellent correlation. A solar cycle anomaly is the difference between the sunspot number for a year and an average sunspot number for many years.

Everything not explicitly considered (such as the 0.09 K s.d. random uncertainty in reported annual measured temperature anomalies, aerosols, CO2, other non-condensing ghg, volcanoes, ice change, etc.) must find room in the unexplained 9.51%.

Search AGW unveiled for the method, equation, data sources, history (hind cast to 1610) and predictions (to 2037).

Posted by: Dan Pangburn at August 8, 2014 2:02 PM

A simpler explanation for this pause in global warming, is that more and more politicians and mumbling slimeball mediocraties (MSM) have jammed their heads firmly up their colons, reducing their hot air exhalations of vapidities.

More to the point, the fact that monkeys have hands should give us paws.

Posted by: Howard Nelson at August 8, 2014 3:35 PM

@Dan - My uncle's name was Louie Lozko. We all called him "Letsgo Lozko". He raised bantam chickens.
He kept them winter and summer, hot and cold, rain or shine, in sickness or in health.
None of them ever died from warming or cooling or wetting or whatever. He never used a formula either.

Posted by: chasmatic at August 8, 2014 6:17 PM