October 15, 2015

"Conventional wisdom has had a pretty bad run these last 15 years."

For that reason there is little purpose to trusting conventional wisdom further. Instead it might be better to predict a future based on observable trends rather than scenarios that politicians offer. If those trends continue one would expect to see in 2025:


  1. The self-destruction of the Muslim Middle East;

  2. The rise of ethnic and national politics in Europe;

  3. The widespread resurgence of religion and cultural identity as a consequence of (2);

  4. Mass expulsions or segregation in large parts of the world to deconflict incompatible communities

  5. Everyone packing personal weapons like the Wild West

  6. The collapse of multi-ethnic countries into simplified pacts based around of national defense, with most social law generated by local communities and affinity groups;

  7. One or more large regional wars with casualties in the tens of millions.

  8. Several, possibly many WMD attacks on major cities involving radiological weapons, low yield nukes or biological agents.

  9. The collapse of any realistic expectation of Peace on Earth, with the remaining hope of mankind vested in the new space frontier.
Excerpted from Looking Back At the Turning of the Century | Belmont Club

Posted by gerardvanderleun at October 15, 2015 9:23 AM
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"It is impossible to speak in such a way that you cannot be misunderstood." -- Karl Popper N.B.: Comments are moderated and may not appear immediately. Comments that exceed the obscenity or stupidity limits will be either edited or expunged.

On #8. Many WMD attacks on major cities. Those with the guns make the rules and in this case when major population centers get hit, even soccer moms will be screaming to drop some nukes...as long as an enemy can be identified, or that may not matter much. Take away the masses current way of life in a short period of time and you will see even pacifists getting mean. Taking out all perceived threats will be the call of the mobs. Poke a harmless little garden snake and even I twill coil up and bite.

Posted by: Snakepit Kansas at October 15, 2015 10:21 AM