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What If? 2: “Why Democrats Would Lose the Second Civil War” by Kurt Schlichter [Bumped]

[CONTINUING our discussions of “What If?” when it comes to drastic solutions to the current American experience Kurt Schlichter is on point this morning.]

Won’t look like rain. Won’t look like snow.
Won’t look like fog. That’s all we know.

Bartholomew and the Oobleck

Let’s talk terrain and numbers. Remember the famous red v. blue voting map? There is a lot of red, and in the interior the few blue splotches are all cities like Las Vegas or Denver. That is a lot of territory for a counter-insurgent force to control, and this is critical. The red is where the food is grown, the oil pumped, and through which everything is transported. And that red space is filled with millions of American citizens with small arms, a fairly large percentage of whom have military training.

Remember what two untrained idiots did in Boston with a couple of pistols? They shut a city down. Now multiply that by several million, with better weapons and training.

Let’s look at the counter-insurgent forces in the Democrat oppression scenario should they attempt to misuse our law enforcement and military in an unconstitutional manner to take the rights of American citizens. There are a lot of civilian law enforcement officers, but the vast majority of the agencies are local – sheriffs, small town police departments. They will not be reliable allies in supporting unlawful oppression of their friends and neighbors. The major cities’ police departments are run by Democrat appointees, so the commands would be loyal. But the rank-and-file? A small percentage would be ideologically loyal. More would be loyal because that’s their paycheck – they could be swayed or intimidated to support the rebels. Others would be actively sympathetic to the insurgents. This is true of federal law enforcement agencies as well.

And the military? Well, wouldn’t the military just crush any resistance? Not so fast. The military would have the combat power to win any major engagement, but insurgents don’t get into major engagements with forces that have more combat power. They instead leverage their decentralized ability to strike at the counter-insurgents’ weak points to eliminate the government’s firepower advantage. In other words, hit and run, and no stand-up fights.

For example, how do a bunch of hunters in Wisconsin defeat a company of M1A2 Abrams tanks? They ambush the fuel and ammo trucks. Oh, and they wait until the gunner pops the hatch to take a leak and put a .30-06 round in his back from 300 meters. Then they disappear. What do the tanks do then? Go level the nearest town? Great. Now they just moved the needle in favor of the insurgents among the population. Pretty soon, they can’t be outside of their armored vehicles in public. Their forces are spending 90% of their efforts not on actual counter-insurgency operations but on force protection. Sure, they own their forward operating bases, and they own a few hundred meters around them wherever they happen to be standing at the moment, but the rest of the territory is bright red. As my recent novel illustrates, American guerillas with small arms are a deadly threat to the forces of a dictatorship.

But the military is so big it would overwhelm any rebels, right? Well, how big do you think the military is? And, more importantly, how many actual boots on the ground can it deploy? Let’s put it in terms of brigade combat teams, which total about 4,500 troops each. There are about 60 brigades in the Army, active and reserve, here and abroad, and let’s give the Marines another 10 brigades, for about 70 brigades. Sounds impressive. But that’s deceptive.

Let’s put aside a big consideration – the existence of red states that would provide for an insurgent government structure and possibly attract the loyalty of some National Guard and even federal brigades. For example, if President Hillary Clinton put down her chardonnay long enough to sign a ban on privately owned guns, it’s not unreasonable to expect the governor of Texas to reject federal authority – after all, California just taught us that this is totally cool. But in this case, look for several brigades located there to hoist the Lone Star flag.

So, now the blue states are facing unconventional and conventional forces.

Let’s ignore that problem and focus on a different challenge. Even a normal unit has about 10% non-deployable members. Now, if these troops were assigned to combat operations against other Americans, you would have significant additional losses through desertion. Many of the senior leaders would participate – the Obama generation – and there is a certain type of junior officer only too happy to curry favor by sucking up in defiance of their oath (which is to the Constitution, not to some leftist president). You can identify them because they usually have “strategist” in their Twitter bios. But a lot of key, capable officer and NCO leaders, and enlisted troops, would vanish. That is proper. It is a violation of their oath to unconstitutionally oppress fellow Americans; their duty would be to refuse such unlawful orders.

So, you have significantly understrength units going in. Now, how many of the troops in a brigade are actually even front line combat troops? About a third – the rest are support. So a brigade is really about 1500 riflemen tops before you count losses. Cut those in half for sleep, training, and refitting at any one time (which is very generous) and your brigade is really 750 troops on your best day with everyone showing up. Realistically, it’s 300.

That holds one mid-sized town. And there are hundreds of mid-sized towns. Plus there are millions of Normal Americans who would fight back. Nothing would move without their permission – a few guys shooting up big rigs along the interstate would shut down the entire trucking industry. Bottom line: there simply are not enough military forces to clear and hold red America.

What about drones and bombers? Both are useful. But the minute a bombing strike kills some red civilians the families of counter-insurgent drone operators and pilots will be knocking at the base gates to be let inside. Now you’ll need many of those brigades to protect the civilians you now need to protect from retribution.

Civil wars are harsh. That’s why you avoid them.

How about the blue insurgency scenario? That goes even worse for the Democrats. You have the federal government apparatus in the hands of red America, and the insurgents are the opposite of decentralized and armed. They are conveniently centered in gun-unfriendly blue cities. In other words, the blue civilian population is much less of a threat.

A red counter-insurgency avoids the problem of a decentralized insurgency and insecure logistical lines. In the case of California, whose secessionist antics are approaching the point where President Trump could legitimately employ his power to crush insurrections, the tactical problem is relatively simple. For example, San Francisco is a hotbed of treason, but the populace is largely unarmed and is trapped in a confined area. You put a brigade on securing the Golden Gate and Bay Bridges, then put a brigade on the San Francisco Peninsula to cut off the I-280 and US-101 corridors. Next you go to the Crystal Springs Dam and cut off the water. Then you watch and wait as the tech hipsters run out of artisanal sushi rice and kombucha.

After about a week, they surrender. After all, you can’t eat and drink smugness. LA is just bigger in scope – more corridors to cut off, but in the end the population concentrations in large liberal urban areas that are their strength also make them extremely vulnerable to logistical pressure.

Then there’s another factor, an intangible but a crucial one. It’s commitment. The Democrat threat to peace is based on its policies designed to deprive Normal Americans of their right to speak freely, to worship freely, and to defend themselves and their rights with firearms. Make no mistake – millions of Normal Americans are willing to risk death to defend those rights. In fact, many swore to do so when they entered our military and law enforcement. But who is the leftist big talker willing to die to impose the fascist dream of censorship, religious oppression, and disarmament on Normal American citizens? Is the screeching SJW at Yale going to suit up in Kevlar? Is the Vox columnist going to grab a M4? Is the Hollywood poser going to switch her gyno-beanie for a helmet?

No. Hell, we just heard our liberal opponents explaining why a cop shouldn’t be expected to go fight a scumbag murdering kids because it’s scary. America might split apart, but it’s highly unlikely Team Kale n’ Vinyl would fight should their big talk finally push Normal America too far.

FOR THE FULL DOSE GO TO: Why Democrats Would Lose the Second Civil War, Too – Kurt Schlichter

Alert the Authorities!

{ 37 comments… add one }
  • Dan Patterson March 12, 2018, 11:20 AM

    I know, obvious and as subtle as a flying mallet, but a valuable comparison.
    Except for Charlie Sheen.

  • OldFert March 12, 2018, 11:37 AM

    I’ve wondered how much it would screw up NYC if some cars or trucks “broke down” in the tunnels, on the bridges, other choke points, etc. Even worse if, after the driver was rescued, the car or truck caught on fire.

  • OhioDude March 12, 2018, 12:03 PM

    Check out Thomas Chittum’s “CW2: The Coming Breakup of America” ….. note how many of his marker signs have come to pass. Find it online and download …. keen analysis and sobering

    try this link through your safety-ware …. https://archive.org/details/CivilWar2

  • Monty James March 12, 2018, 12:19 PM

    I like Colonel Kurt, but these two links are valuable reading if we’re contemplating the coming interesting times:

    Skull Stomping Sacred Cows

    He points out that Lefty has been hurting perfect strangers for years now, while no one on our side managed to get off the couch for eight years of Obama. Expect something like Yugoslavia, or the Dirty War in Argentina. A little dash of cold water in the face.

    Days Of Rage

    Reminds us of the scale of Lefty’s activity during the Sixties and Seventies, before they quieted down and began taking over the commanding heights of finance, news, entertainment, education, business, and government service.

    Speaking of those commanding heights, the upper reaches of everything listed above are closed to any member of the traditional culture of the country. Lefty only. Professed Christians toiling lower down are lucky to still have jobs.

    Selco at SHTF.com has some useful thoughts:

    Selco at SHTFplan.com

    SHTF School Blog

    Kurt Schlichter is awesome, lurvs me some Schlichter. Not trying to be an Eeyore, not taking counsel of my fears. Maybe I’m being a Johnny One Note on this. It’s just I think when people start laughing about how easy a fight would be is the time to back up and examine some assumptions. I think the stuff I linked to is useful.

  • Bram March 12, 2018, 12:54 PM

    In scenario 1 (Dems ordering the military against rural towns), I think the military would be completely unreliable. I would predict firefights in the armories and barracks. My guess is some combat units would remain loyal to their oaths and mutiny wholesale – effectively joining the resistance. All it would take is a Colonel and a few NCOs.

  • Callmelennie March 12, 2018, 1:03 PM

    Actually, the troops on the leading edge of the combat lines would be at least 75% Redstaters. The vast majority of troops that would support a Hillary coup would be in the rear echelons. And I seriously doubt the Red Staters would be twiddling their thumbs while the the few Schumer loving troops shoot their siblings and parents and neighbors

  • Old Surfer March 12, 2018, 1:19 PM

    It’s a shame the link to “Absolved” from Sipsey Street no longer works – is there another place to find this story online? “Unintended Consequences” is another fine read.

  • Vanderleun March 12, 2018, 1:38 PM

    Not sure what link you mean.

  • rabbit tobacco March 12, 2018, 2:02 PM

    simply surround the major cities i.e. block entrance/ exits to interstate access. starve em out.

  • ghostsniper March 12, 2018, 3:02 PM

    The cities will immolate, the negro’s will kill the pantywaist whites wholesale.
    Don’t be there.
    Then they will gravitate to the pussified suburbia’s.
    When the metropolis’s are reduced to detroits the remainders will explore rurally to their demise.
    There is no line in the sand but there is a wide but invisible buffer zone and it will be littered with rotting corpses.
    Just about anything could touch this off at anytime.
    You could wake up tomorrow, or in the middle of the night with a text alarm on your phone.
    Large areas of the power/communication structure could be voluntarily shut down in an effort to contain the mayhem.

    Sitting there at the dark breakfast table tomorrow morning and the house is cold and there is no coffee. None of the phones, computers, TV’s or radios work, and your mind does what it does best. But there is lot’s of traffic out front, cars going by with confused drivers seeking answers to the same questions going through your head. Some are heading to relatives house, some to friends, some to work. No one knows what’s going on. Your forgotten AM-FM comes out of the kitchen drawer and crackles to life but there is only static. Damn! WTF is going on?

    Everybody knows a storm is brewing but they think that if they don’t think about it it won’t happen. So they don’t talk about it and if they do they do so in hushed voices. Then they laugh it off nervously. They buy an extra can of corn or 3, and a bag of flour. When the gas gauge gets below half they start shopping the gas signs for best prices. Dad stops and looks at the rifles in the display at Walmart, then moves on. Everybody’s semi-primed, nervous, broke, in debt. Caged animals. Compressed springs. There has never been anything even remotely like this in all of human history. The scale is breath taking, Unimaginable. But for those that already know. They bear the burden.

  • Transgender Aisha March 12, 2018, 6:09 PM

    Not all the blue spots on the maps are big cities. The blue spots in ND top right and bottom central spreading into SD are perfect US Gov’t Programs at their best call Reservations. Want to see what Marxism in the US looks like. Check out a Reservation. With and without a casino.

  • Country Mouse March 12, 2018, 8:02 PM

    We’ve been 16 years in Afghanistan and can’t subdue the countryside with our trillion-dollar military.
    Does anybody thinks the American countryside wouldn’t be about 100x tougher to deal with?

  • Bob Sykes March 12, 2018, 8:08 PM

    The Sunni Arabs along the Euphrates Valley are a good example. They (and their agent

  • Bob Sykes March 12, 2018, 8:12 PM

    The Sunni Arabs along the Euphrates Valley are a good modern example. They still are not pacified, and their most recent agents, ISI/Daesh, still have forces in the field. They also collected a lot of Sadaam Hussein’s former military and lots of their equipment. Does anyone think Americans would be more supine than Iraqi Arabss?Go read “Cobra II.”

  • Casey Klahn March 12, 2018, 8:12 PM

    “You can’t eat…smugness.”

    Humph. Can’t shoot with it, either.

    If the power grid did go down, expect it back, and the TV news corps reporting what utter lunatics the conservatives are. They’ll make them out to be baby-eaters, and cow-cornholers. The news will show how cool the gubmint is, and how untenable your situation is if you’re out in the hinterlands, clinging to your guns and your bible.

    Expect at least half of the national guard company commanders to go down to the armory, and swallow the keys to the arms room. No guard companies in 40 states would ever consider violating the constitution, and taking up arms against Americans. However, more than a few will have Concord Bridge in their minds…

  • Speller March 12, 2018, 9:44 PM

    “Then you watch and wait as the tech hipsters run out of artisanal sushi rice and kombucha.”

    Kombucha? Never heard of it. Is that really a thing?

  • Flynnscout March 13, 2018, 4:01 AM

    Britain was not, but could have been, a factor in Civil War 1. I wonder how China would react to Civil War 2?

  • ghostsniper March 13, 2018, 4:38 AM

    The national guards will be assigned field duty to areas away from where they live so as to get away from the problem of “firing on their own families”. People are magnetized to their paychecks and usually do what they are told.

  • Fletcher Christian March 13, 2018, 6:19 AM

    Speller – Yup. Basically, mouldy tea.

  • Casey Klahn March 13, 2018, 7:27 AM

    Ghost: they still have to mobilize from their home armories. I understand your theory, but I expect many in the heartland (including large parts of California and NY) to stand their ground in their place of origin and not follow orders to march. Hell, I’d say at least 20 or more adjutants general (commanders of the NG in each state) would also be non-compliant with civil war mobilization against the constitution.

    Unless the whole thing goes down under some cover of lies. Such as: North Dakota is full of reactionary nazis, and must be occupied. I don’t know; not being very creative on one cup of coffee. Anyway, it won’t be that cut and dried, and many will be fooled. If it even goes down at all. I’m a sceptic on the whole inevitability thing.

  • Wildman March 13, 2018, 9:59 AM

    There are more deer hunters in pennsylvania out on opening day than most field armies in the world. Good luck blue states

  • Chris March 13, 2018, 10:23 AM

    Probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 80% of all combat units would not answer those orders. But it won’t be done like that…they will fool commanders that would normally not follow an obviously illegal order into complying with some cover story about how they are deploying to prevent a terrorist attack. If the had any sense about them, the Democrats would set off a nuke in some convenient place like Dallas or Atlanta to give a sense of urgency to the Guard and RA units. Units would deploy, martial law would be put in place. Stage a shootout between “civilians” and military members and Badda boom badda bing… we need to have citizens turn in their arms to prevent further bloodshed.

    That’s how you win a Civil war short term, but I think that enough commanders would eventually realize the truth and then you’d have a real shooting match on your hands between those that figure out they’ve been conned and those that don’t or who are now firmly on the side of the Federals.

  • Casey Klahn March 13, 2018, 11:18 AM

    Nobody needs the 2nd Amendment.

    Until the government begins confiscation. Then, we fully need the 2nd Amendment.

    Anybody who says our gun rights are for deer hunting should be pistol whipped. There’s a photo on google of a history text book summarizing the 2A thusly: “The people have the right to keep and bear arms in a state militia.” In CWII, they’ll need to jail that publishing house staff for gross insurrection.

    OK, I just made that charge up. I’m no lawyer. But the misinformation, obfuscation, and flat out lies being told right now about firearms owners amounts to the run-up to a counter revolution by the Left. The truth is, America was founded by violent revolution, and is perpetually that, backed up by the threat of violence by patriots.

    These kids at the schools staging walk-outs need to be flunked for truancy. I’d be fine with fewer liberals being schooled on the public dime, anyway.

    I’ve been watching too much John Wayne on Amazon/Netflix. Makes me short tempered when in comes to what’s right and what’s wrong.

  • Jim in Alaska March 13, 2018, 11:49 AM

    OK, the article is well thought out and logical however; “Let’s look at the counter-insurgent forces in the Democrat oppression scenario should they attempt to misuse our law enforcement and military in an unconstitutional manner to take the rights of American citizens.” Should they? Hell, they have, often.

    I remember a Cuban kid torn from his family at gun point and shipped off to Cuba.
    I remember a guy in Idaho…
    I remember Fast and Furious.
    I remember a religious group, men woman and children burned, cremated.
    I remember and old guy shot in Oregon…
    I remember 2 guys in Oregon who were tried, convicted and served their sentences, only to be returned to prison because the government felt they should be punished more.

    Talk the talk all you want but, from where I sit up here on top of the world looking down, it appears that the revolution is over, and we lost.

  • Teri Pittman March 13, 2018, 12:23 PM

    Kombucha is not moldy tea. It’s similar to how you make vinegar, in that you have a “mother” to culture it. With Kombucha, it’s called a SCOBY. I used to make the stuff before they called it Kombucha. It’s a bit tart and naturally fermented.

  • ghostsniper March 13, 2018, 2:22 PM

    Suppose 3 barren hoons ganged me with blades and I grabbed that big stick laying over there and killed all of them, would I be charged with murder? Why not?

    Trade the stick for a gun I was carrying on my person, does the end result change?

    What does the 2nd have to do with this?

    I did not violate law or any persons rights by defending myself.
    I have the natural right to defend my life and this is inviolate, inarguable.
    This natural right has existed for all of mankind’s existence.

    The founders knew this when they drafted the bill of rights AND they knew, based on history, that gov’ts are prone to violate natural rights, so they created the 2nd amendment to prevent the US gov’t from ever doing that.

    The 2nd amendment is not about YOU, it about the gov’t.
    It is a law created for the specific purpose of forcing the gov’t to NOT violate your natural right to protect yourself.

    Again, it’s not about YOU, it is about the GOV’T.

    The biggest problem with the US Constitution is that it does not have any built-in and automatic remedy and/or punishment for violations of the laws specifically addressed in it.

    Thus, there are supposedly 50,000 laws on the books right now that violate the 2nd amendment and nobody has been charged, tried, found guilty, and sentenced for these gross violations.

    Once again the gov’t has not enforced existing laws, just like they did not enforce existing laws at the FL high school which resulted in deaths of innocents.

    They’d rather argue about mentally disturbed men that want to dress up as women and use women’s bathrooms.

    Yes, it really is that bad out there.

    Zoom back, waaaaaaay back and take a good look at what is going on.

    Mass insanity on a scale never seen before, and you better figure out how to disassociate yourself from it physically and mentally.

    It’s circling the drain in the shit filled tub, round and round, pulling everything down to the sewer of death and despair. YOU can change it for YOU if YOU want to.

  • Monty James March 13, 2018, 6:29 PM

    A problem with the U.S. Constitution is that you’d better have the right nine lawyers sitting in the arch-legislature, the Supreme Court. If Lefty happens to have the bulge in that unicameral lawmaking body, you’re screwed. The Constitution has sprung a leak, and people are going to start looking past it.

    “If the court can find the right to homosexual marriage in the Constitution, there is no such thing as a Constitution anymore.”

  • Ray March 14, 2018, 3:28 AM

    The problem is not so much that the “Omni party” and communist want civil war. The problem is that once started it won’t be stopped. The “Party” thinks they control this . They don’t. This will end with political and ethnic cleansing such as the world has never seen, and IMO some nit wit like Jerry Brown will invite the blue helmets in. Then nothing turns off the death machine till half the world is dead.

  • ghostsniper March 14, 2018, 10:33 AM

    “some nit wit like Jerry Brown will invite the blue helmets in”

    Storm the cathedral, off with his nutz!

    They sit up there in their purchased armor, so smug, thinking no one can touch this.
    Well they have to eat too, and drink, and breath air, and flush their shit.
    A couple 40lb cratering charges will cancel those sewer pipes and melt the ends shut, then the back up starts. Do the same with the waterlines. No drinkee, no pee pee. Couple more crater charges to take out the roads leading to their havens, now theres no food.

    Then you sit back and wait, barrels trained on the exits. Analog drones hovering overhead, waiting for your command – kamakazi style.

    No, an AR15 can’t take out a class 60 tank but no one ever said it would, however lots of the american communists, who know as much about military and self defense as they do anything else that requires ballz, often use that verbal tactic against american patriots. No the tiny .223 won’t penetrate that 6″ hull nor dislodge a single track but it doesn’t have to. All it has to do is penetrate the brain pan of the TC when he finally gets tired of smelling his own shit and throws that hatch open wide.

    It starts in your head, and ends when he’s dead.

  • Snakepit Kansas March 14, 2018, 10:53 AM

    Nah. When we get to that, there will be a military coup. I cannot see the US Military take action against middle America.

    Per Ghost, yeah, stay away from the large cities. That will be an ugly sight.

  • Don Rodrigo March 14, 2018, 2:04 PM

    One great big hole in this scenario: street gangs. Thousands of members in those blue enclaves. They will be the Left’s “militias.” Remember that the Left has a perverse fascination with criminals, and everyone from Crips & Bloods to Latin Kings and MS-13 will join the “resistance,” or become the terror arm if the reds are the insurgents. The Drug cartels too. Which side will they join with either scenario? And don’t forget the New Black Panther Party — tiny in number and effectiveness, but still an addition. And the Fruit of Islam? Remember them?

    We’re talking tens of thousands of such people, and they are often highly mobile.

  • Snakepit Kansas March 14, 2018, 4:18 PM

    They have no infrastructure other than their own network. Shoot up, loot and burn their own cities. Shit in their own mess kit. Like Ghost said, the large cities would be a place to avoid. They would eat the lefties first, then themselves. Roving bands of marauders, sure, until they start to deal with folks that have trained with guns.

  • ghostsniper March 15, 2018, 7:56 PM

    @Rodrigo, are you talking about those intellectual dwarfs that hold their throw-downs sideways?
    We reach out in 1000 yard increments and see before being seen. Word of trusted mouth is a hundred times faster than twitter and never hoaxed. For some time now we’ve been discussing what to do with all the inevitable corpses.

  • Vermont Woodchuck March 16, 2018, 2:57 PM

    I don’t know. There is much chatter about numbers and sides. After two tours in the Nam, what I know is that anyone in the ballistic path of a round heading downrange is fucked. Afraid, no. Does this kind of shit scare me, you’re damn right it does.
    If the possibility of getting caught up in a Civil war where you don’t know who is on what side when the shooting starts doesn’t frighten you, you are either exceedingly stupid or already dead. I’m 75 and it still keeps me awake at night.

  • American Deplorable March 16, 2018, 3:01 PM

    Well written… LMAO @ the thought of SJWs in kevlar carrying artisan sushi rice and kambucha in their survival packs… muahahahaha

  • bilejones March 16, 2018, 3:35 PM

    The beauty of America is one of the ugliest things in America.
    In civilized countries, the infrastructure is largely planted in the floor.
    In the US it’s hung up on wires on wooden trees for all to see.
    The appropriate approach might be to find a couple of big feeds just before cities and build fires, sit back 400 yds and warning shots (at first) at the firemen.

  • Doug March 16, 2018, 4:51 PM

    A little video for your civil war fantasy pleasure: https://youtu.be/HnJZ2haLPCw

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