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June 19, 2012

Drake ET Equation = Not an Equation

drakeqn.jpg

Look at the factors in the Drake Equation. Since none of them are known by modern science, it is easy to overlook the fact that only two of the factors (the number of stars bearing planets, and the number of planets bearing life) can be reduced to a number, and be counted.
The other factors cannot be reduced to a number. “Civilization” is a term like “haste” — it is not something defined in terms a physicist can measure. How many “civilization” exist on Earth now? Do we count Chinese culture and Christendom as one civilization because they have trade and commerce? You can put a number to it, but that number will not be expressing a fact, it will be a judgment call.... The Drake Equation is poetry, not physics. It is a statement that since there are a whole lots of lots of stars, there MUST be space people out there in space, and the more stars there are, the harder it is to believe that there are no space people. That is an emotional sentiment. it is not science, it is not physics, it is not a disprovable statement, it does not measure anything, it establishes no proportion between factors, hence it is not an equation at all. -- John C. Wright's Journal

Updated: See comment by Donald Sensing.

Posted by gerardvanderleun at June 19, 2012 10:44 AM. This is an entry on the sideblog of American Digest: Check it out.

Your Say

You need to multiply by "BS" to get the Drake equation correct.

Posted by: Mike at June 19, 2012 11:25 AM

Michael Crichton references Drake in his "Aliens Cause Global Warming" lecture.
Courtesy of Watts Up With That:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/09/aliens-cause-global-warming-a-caltech-lecture-by-michael-crichton/

Posted by: stephen b at June 19, 2012 11:46 AM

Post-modern Science. Just like Global Warming, it looks like science to the uninformed, but it is just a scheme to relieve you of your money.

Posted by: Fat Man at June 19, 2012 11:50 AM

I don't think it matters because I believe we are the First Ones. We will be the ones who are refered to as The Ancients and Drake will be known as The Silly One.

Posted by: David McKinnis at June 19, 2012 3:47 PM

I'm going to go out on a limb here and stand up for the Drake 'Equation'. It is certainly not an equation, and no, we don't know any of the terms to within way too many orders of magnitude. but if you replace the equals sign with the mathematical symbol for "vaguely proportional to" (whatever that may be), you have a starting place for talking about an interesting question: How many alien civilizations are there? And do they all believe in Space Jesus?

Posted by: SteveS at June 19, 2012 3:57 PM

"How many alien civilizations are there?"

Unknown but most likely... none at this time.

"And do they all believe in Space Jesus?"

Not Space Jesus. Nope.

Posted by: vanderleun at June 19, 2012 4:58 PM

There is an increasing consensus among astronomers and biologists that the development of complex life on earth was so incredibly unlikely that we may well be it in all the universe. (And as we all know from Al Gore, scientific consensus cannot be argued with.) Actually, by "consensus," I mean an increasing number of scientists who are concluding it.

Complex life means multicellular, btw.

But consider the possibility that there are 200 billion ET species with equivalent mental capabilities as earthlings. Or raise the number to 500 billion. Sounds like a lot, right?

That means there is only one such species per galaxy, 200 and 500 billion being the low end and high end of the estimated number of galaxies in the universe.

Since intergalactic travel is (a) almost certainly impossible and (b) absolutely pointless anyway, that would mean that we are alone for all practical thinking.

I remember Glenn Reynolds posting once that if ETs are here, it would not be living creatures, but their nanobots.

As far as Jesus goes, the subject of whether ETs would need salvation has been explored at some length by science fiction writers. Someday I'll work up a post about it. Interesting topic.

As far as the Church goes, some history: In the 12th century, the University of Paris (then the leading university in the world and thoroughly under Aristotelian fascination) moved to make the Pope declare that life could not be present on other worlds.

Their move was denounced by France's assembled Concil of Bishops and then condemned by the Archbishop of France. Hence it died. The Church's dogma on the topic was and remains that God, being sovereignly unlimited in power, can create life wherever he wants.

Posted by: Donald Sensing at June 19, 2012 6:17 PM

There is an increasing consensus among astronomers and biologists that the development of complex life on earth was so incredibly unlikely that we may well be it in all the universe.

"Not only is the universe stranger than we imagine, it is stranger than we can imagine." --variously attributed to Sir Arthur Eddington, Werner Heisenberg, J.B.S. Haldane, or Richard Dawkins, depending, of course, on which consensus you happen to be part of...

Posted by: BillT at June 20, 2012 3:03 AM

A proper understanding of science and Christianity don't conflict any more than a cookbook and a bank statement contradict each other. They talk about different things and have different purposes.

Check out reasons.org It's a ministry started by a CalTech Astrophysicist and they show you there is no need to turn off your brain to understand God or ignore the Bible to understand science. As Reasons.org says "everyday there are more reasons to believe." They aren't some blowdry preacher with cartoons of cavemen riding dinosaurs. They are professional astronomers, physicists, philosophers, etc.

Reasons.org understands the Bible doesn't necessarily rule out life elsewhere in the universe. But the Bible seems to indicate that our Jesus was sufficient for all of the free-will souls. The Bible seems either to be silent on souls elsewhere, or those beings may not need a savior, either because they are temporally/spacially isolated or perfected, or non-existent.

Think of this: The Taj Mahal is proof the builder loved his wife. Maybe the universe God loves us more than Mogul Prince. IF we are alone in the universe, it's not a waste and lonely. We may have been given the most magnificent mansion, far beyond the imagination of man, if not infinite.

Posted by: Scott M at June 20, 2012 1:06 PM

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