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September 6, 2011

"Analysts persist in making predictions. They are addicted to prophecy."

The robe of the magus fits strangely on the scientist's lab coat, but the point is clear. 
These are the people who see into the future.  Unfortunately, to keep up the pose -- to validate their expertise -- they must insist that the future resemble the past.  They freeze yesterday, and imagine it’s tomorrow.  With an election, they point to polls.  They say things like, "Since FDR, no president has been re-elected with an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent or higher."  Prediction, explicit or implied, rests on arbitrary statistics and the assumption that nothing in the future will perturb the infinite number of variables pushing and pulling at the data. Hence the high rate of failure. -- Analyzing events | the fifth wave

Posted by Vanderleun at September 6, 2011 10:55 AM. This is an entry on the sideblog of American Digest: Check it out.

Your Say

There are some days, you must admit, that stoning false prophets to death looks mighty tempting. Let he who is without a carbon offset credit be the one to cast the first stone at Al Gore.

Posted by: Jewel at September 6, 2011 11:32 AM

The question is... can we hold out for another fourteen months of this?

Posted by: Casca at September 6, 2011 12:07 PM

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