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June 15, 2010
Deepwater: What Happens Next?
Well...none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact...it's about as bad as it gets.
I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.
Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us....
Over the next 2 months the mechanical situation also cannot improve, it can only get worse, getting better is an impossibility. While they may make some gains on collecting the leaked oil, the structural situation cannot heal itself. It will continue to erode and flow out more oil and eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be stopped will happen. It is only a simple matter of who can "get there first"...us or the well. -- The Oil Drum | Deepwater Oil Spill - A Longer Term Problem, Personnel - and Open Thread 2
Posted by Vanderleun at June 15, 2010 11:34 AM. This is an entry on the sideblog of American Digest: Check it out.
Your Say
Thanks for this post. Nothing like "light" to dispell the "heat".
Posted by: Pixelkiller at June 15, 2010 3:32 PM
Oil Drum is a site for chicken littles. "We are going to run out of oil and we are all gonna die"
I would pay it no mind.
Posted by: Fat Man at June 16, 2010 9:57 AM
Get back to me about the beginning of October with that 'pay it no mind', OK?
I hope you are correct, but why would I believe the truth is being told by BP and teh Feds now?
Posted by: dr kill at June 16, 2010 11:52 AM