The Bazaar of Violence in Iraq
John Robb @ Global Guerrillas casts a cold eye on the business of terrorism in Iraq in GUERRILLA ENTREPRENEURS.
In this item as well as others he's written in the past and linked to this essay, Robb lays out the "economics" of the war as seen from the other side. Often lost in the emotional back and forth about the battles in Iraq are the sheer business details that allow it to go forward. Some bullet points are:
All in all, a hard-headed analysis that makes no specific proposals for action to inhibit these start-ups.A New Dynamic The financial dynamic we see in action in Iraq is a hallmark of global guerrilla warfare. It also creates its own dynamic. The destruction of the pillars of globalization through attacks on systems (both infrastructure and markets) serve to keep Iraq a failed state. As a failed state, Iraq is unable to provide economic alternatives to the insurgency. Further, even though Iraq is a failed state, it is awash in money. Fortunes will be made through the perpetuation of its chaos (as we see with the Narco warlords in Afghanistan, who combined generate $2.5 billion a year in revenue).
- "Unlimited amounts" of violence capital for guerrilla entrepreneurs is flowing into Iraq from ex-Baathists, relatives of Saddam Hussein, Saudi sources, and bin Laden. Given global guerrilla ROIs (returns on investment) of up to 100,000 x, this should be cause for alarm.
- Loot from convoy hijackings, theft of oil through bunkering, and ransoms play a major part of the motivation for attacks. Fully 80% of the attacks fall into this category.
- A granular competitive market. There are over 50 guerrilla groups active in Iraq. The sheer diversity of the effort indicates a process that is very similar to historical patterns of Arab warfare.
- Price schedules for attacks. The going rate for placing an IED is $100-$300 (more for an RPG attack).
It would seem to me that, looked at from this point of view, the war on terror becomes a cash-flow exercise, a profit-loss endeavor in which, as long as the butcher's bill in western countries doesn't become too high, the infrastructure that underpins these start-ups will be left intact, and the small and large "investors" left to continue with business as usual. Perhaps this is what John Kerry alluded to as a "nuisance," something that is, well, bad, but that we "can live with."
When it rises to the level of something we cannot live with is where it will become interesting and potentially deadly to several countries in the Mid-East. What that level is is still anybody's guess. What is clear, at this date, is that 3,000 dead Americans and over a thousand casualities in the "Sensitive" War on Terror is not that tilting point.
In the end, this is perhaps why so many of the Global Terrorist Entrepreneurs and their backers prefer Kerry. He is, they feel, like Jacques Chirac, a man they can do business with.
Posted by Vanderleun at October 24, 2004 7:00 PM