January 15, 2005

Lynch's NFL Picks: Struggling Back from 1 for 5

by CHRIS LYNCH , American Digest Sports Editor

Last week I went 1 for 5 so I'm duty bound to try and prove I'm not an idiot by offering more picks and hopefully doing much, much better this week. (It should also be noted that professional NFL analyst Ron Jaworski went 1 for 4 last week - so I got that going for me... which is nice.)

Jets at Steelers

The Steelers are giving 9 points and the over is a ridiculously low 35 points.

Back in December these two teams met in Pittsburgh with the Steelers coming away with a 17-6 victory. That day the QB's for both teams were awful. Chad Pennington threw 3 interceptions and Ben Roethlisberger threw 2. The only passing TD that day came from Jerome Bettis.

I'm tempted to pick the Steelers simply because Roethlisberger has a hot looking girlfriend (have I mentioned that my picks are done purely with scientific method?). However, Pennington threw only 9 INT's all year and 3 of them came in that one game against Pittsburgh. It was those picks that killed the Jets that day and I don't see Pennington repeating his awful performance. Therefore my pick is the Jets with the points and also take the over because I'm a sucker for an over that low.

Rams at Falcons

The Falcons are favored by 7 points in this game.

This is a tough one. The Rams are a great offense in a Dome but their defense is soft. The Falcons have an excellent defense but their offense is dependent on Michael Vick improvising.

These two teams met early in the season at the Georgia Dome with the Falcons coming away with a convincing 34-17 victory. The Falcons scored 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to win. Michael Vick was the leading rusher for either team with 102 yards and he also went 14-19 passing with a QB rating of 120. The problem is - a game that early in the season doesn't mean much now that we are in the playoffs.

I am so up in the air on this game. On one hand, I always thought the Falcons were overrated (but I also thought that about the Rams). On the other hand, every year the one week layoff hurts at least one team (but by the same token you just know that Mike Martz will find a way to screw the pooch).

When I come to difficult crossroads in my life - I normally ask myself, "What would Kevin Bacon in Footloose do in this situation?" That doesn't help with NFL picks though so I have to turn to the oracle that is David Hasselhoff (more reliable than a Magic Eightball).

CL: Will the Rams cover the spread against the Falcons?

DH: Vanity is a state of mind, body and soul

Well there you have it. Take the Rams and the points (I assume the vanity thing was a reference to Mike Martz and his super ego).

Vikings at Eagles

Terrell Owens is out - oh no! Whatever will the Eagles do? I'll tell you what they'll do - they'll win the damn game. The question is, "Will they win by more than 8.5 points?" The answer to that question is no.

The Eagles win but don't cover. This will set up another NFC Championship game at home for the Eagles where Donovan McNabb will once again choke and single handedly cause spousal abuse to go up by 3,000% in the City of Brotherly Love. Sadly - I'm not joking about that last comment.

Colts at Patriots

The line started at Patriots -3. Then it went down to Patriots -1.5 as all the money flowed in on the Colts. Now the line is back at Patriots -3. Follow the money.

Personally, I think the Patriots romp by the Colts by at least 2 touchdowns but for the sake of this post - I'll suffice it to say that they'll cover the 3 points. The last thing the Colts should have done is challenge the champions. Now they may not have meant it but all this focus on Peyton Manning has frosted Tom Brady and Brady will once again show that head-to-head he's the better QB. All the talk about not being able to stop the Colts offense has also challenged Bill Belichick who had an extra week to scheme for the game.

The field will be slick on Sunday and there should be snow starting around game time. Colts receivers will slip and the field conditions will get in their heads. Manning will over throw a receiver because the receiver slipped and Belichick and the weather conditions will get into his head.

Look for a steady dose of Corey Dillon from the Patriots. Dillon is a straight ahead "smash-mouth" runner. That coupled with a precise day from Brady will lead to a big victory by the Patriots.

So let it be written - so let it be done.

AMERICAN DIGEST SPORTS EDITOR Chris Lynch serves his own brew daily at A Large Regular, and contributes to SportsPages.com. Lynch can be reached at chris.lynch@gmail.com

Posted by Vanderleun at January 15, 2005 9:09 AM
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Jets at Steelers: Steelers. And yes, those are good odds if one takes the Jets.

Rams at Falcons: Iffy. Falcons

Vikings at Eagles: Vikings

Colts at Patriots: Patriots (Oh, way more than 3)

Posted by: P.A. Breault at January 15, 2005 2:05 PM

The Falcons looked much better than "iffy" last night. If it wasn't for the advice of David Hasselhoff and his hairy chest, dreamy eyes and big belt buckle - I would have picked the Falcons too.

Posted by: chris at January 16, 2005 5:55 AM

Oh yes - it was a blowout. And it still was an iffy choice at the outset. I went with breeding (or lack thereof).

Posted by: P.A. Breault at January 16, 2005 8:50 AM

Not bad, Chris. You went 2 for 4.

Posted by: P.A. Breault at January 16, 2005 10:03 PM

3 for 5 (the over on the Jets game)

Posted by: chris at January 17, 2005 5:45 AM

Dang- forgot about the over.

Posted by: P.A. Breault at January 17, 2005 8:01 AM