October 7, 2003

The Mail-In Vote

The Weekly Standard takes a look at the meaning of the absentee ballots in Postcards from the End

SOME THOUGHTS ON TODAY'S VOTE: Davis could win, but it's more difficult than the media would have you to believe. Let's suppose turnout is as strong as expected--in the neighborhood of 10 million votes. That means Davis needs 50 percent of today's vote, plus one, to win. Right? Wrong. Some 2 million absentee ballots already have been cast--and mailed in before Arnold was hit with the groping and pro-Hitler allegations. If those ballots track with the pre-groping polls, Davis will be lucky to pick up 44 percent of those 2 million-plus votes. That means Davis has to win 52-53 percent of today's walkup to defeat the recall question. No poll has him close to that.

Posted by Van der Leun at October 7, 2003 9:11 AM
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