October 16, 2004

The DenBeste Trend

Stephen DenBeste, one of the most lucid minds around, posts a very interesting graph and an even more interesting analysis of the trend behind the months of presidential polling in Poll Trends, 20041016

His analysis is very compelling:

....My first suspicion would be that the test equipment was broken, but in the case of opinion polls there is no such thing. My second suspicion would be fraud.

In September, I think there was a deliberate attempt to depress Kerry's numbers, so as to set up an "October comeback". Of course, the goal was to engineer a bandwagon.

Public opinion isn't usually as ephemeral as these polls suggest that it is. But there can be long-term trends, and I find it interesting that such a thing actually does show through. It's quite striking how close some of the data falls to the long term trendlines which I've drawn in.

The reason the Democrats and the MSM are getting frantic is that they're losing.

Pointer from History's End

Posted by Vanderleun at October 16, 2004 8:25 PM
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"It is impossible to speak in such a way that you cannot be misunderstood." -- Karl Popper N.B.: Comments are moderated and may not appear immediately. Comments that exceed the obscenity or stupidity limits will be either edited or expunged.

Well, it's good to see a post at USS Clueless even if it's a rather terse one by Den Beste standards. I'd hate to think that he's just going to stay home and read comic books...

Posted by: Stephen at October 17, 2004 8:35 AM

Losing. That's L-O-S-I-N-G as in 'going to, or about to' loose. Coming in 2nd in a 2-man race. Behind the winner. Not even kissing his sister, maybe kissing his wife; the amazing Tuh Ray Zuh from the planet Zorag.

What will the newsreaders on the tube do now??? How could they allow us mere commoners to make such an important decision? Why he's "John Kerry and [he's]...reporting for duty!"


Posted by: Dan Patterson at October 17, 2004 10:34 AM

You know the democrat party is desperate when all they can do is flood online polls with lopside support for their horse-face purple bandaids guy Kerry. Then the liberal media, who's already lying about debates being a "tie" change their whole story to go along with the bogus online polls. Listen, Bush shot down every lie Kerry made, and Kerry won the debates? Yeah right.

They're going to have a surprise in a few weeks when the real Americans go to vote.

Posted by: Floyd Jackson at October 17, 2004 5:25 PM

The desperation of the Dems is truly creepy. What are their polls showing them?

Posted by: jeff at October 18, 2004 9:40 AM

I would like to know that as well.

Posted by: FH at October 19, 2004 12:01 AM