Stephen DenBeste, one of the most lucid minds around, posts a very interesting graph and an even more interesting analysis of the trend behind the months of presidential polling in Poll Trends, 20041016
His analysis is very compelling:
....My first suspicion would be that the test equipment was broken, but in the case of opinion polls there is no such thing. My second suspicion would be fraud.Pointer from History's End Posted by Vanderleun at October 16, 2004 8:25 PM
In September, I think there was a deliberate attempt to depress Kerry's numbers, so as to set up an "October comeback". Of course, the goal was to engineer a bandwagon.
Public opinion isn't usually as ephemeral as these polls suggest that it is. But there can be long-term trends, and I find it interesting that such a thing actually does show through. It's quite striking how close some of the data falls to the long term trendlines which I've drawn in.
The reason the Democrats and the MSM are getting frantic is that they're losing.