AJ Strata has an interesting analysis of recent polls. Could it be that diving deep in the Obama tank gives you narcosis of the deep?
" Look at the policy preference break down of Lib-Con-Mod, it is split 23-37-36 - almost the REVERSE of the party ID break down. That means if you re-run the polls using policy preference as the weighting factor you could see the polls almost flip 180ー! Democrats are up by 7%, but Cons are up by 14% - twice the advantage!
"Even more interesting is the undecided poll. In the Party ID view undecideds are split equally between Dem-Rep-Ind at 28-26-43. This would lead one to allocate undecideds or leaners basically down the middle between Obama and McCain since the difference left and right is a statistically insignificant 2%.
"But in the policy world view the picture is dramatically different. The Lib-Con-Mod mix is heavily tilted away from Obama’s base with 18-32-47. Here we see very little opportunity for Obama to take the undecided voters. Now the imbalance is 2:1 in favor of McCain, which holds a statistically huge 14% advantage." - The Strata-Sphere - Obama May Be In Real Trouble If Polls Weight Samples WrongPosted by Vanderleun at October 6, 2008 12:56 PM | TrackBack
Oh, man, I hope this is correct. First bright thought of the day...
Posted by: Alexandra Greeley at October 6, 2008 1:32 PM"It is impossible to speak in such a way that you cannot be misunderstood." -- Karl Popper N.B.: Comments are moderated to combat spam and may not appear immediately. Comments that exceed the obscenity or stupidity limits will be either edited or expunged.
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