October 6, 2008

Flipping the Weighting Flips the Polls

decidingvotes.jpgAJ Strata has an interesting analysis of recent polls. Could it be that diving deep in the Obama tank gives you narcosis of the deep?

" Look at the policy preference break down of Lib-Con-Mod, it is split 23-37-36 - almost the REVERSE of the party ID break down. That means if you re-run the polls using policy preference as the weighting factor you could see the polls almost flip 180ー! Democrats are up by 7%, but Cons are up by 14% - twice the advantage!
"Even more interesting is the undecided poll. In the Party ID view undecideds are split equally between Dem-Rep-Ind at 28-26-43. This would lead one to allocate undecideds or leaners basically down the middle between Obama and McCain since the difference left and right is a statistically insignificant 2%.
"But in the policy world view the picture is dramatically different. The Lib-Con-Mod mix is heavily tilted away from Obama’s base with 18-32-47. Here we see very little opportunity for Obama to take the undecided voters. Now the imbalance is 2:1 in favor of McCain, which holds a statistically huge 14% advantage." - The Strata-Sphere - Obama May Be In Real Trouble If Polls Weight Samples Wrong

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Posted by Vanderleun at October 6, 2008 12:56 PM | TrackBack
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"It is impossible to speak in such a way that you cannot be misunderstood." -- Karl Popper N.B.: Comments are moderated and may not appear immediately. Comments that exceed the obscenity or stupidity limits will be either edited or expunged.

Oh, man, I hope this is correct. First bright thought of the day...

Posted by: Alexandra Greeley at October 6, 2008 1:32 PM
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