A lucid and balanced article at Tech Central, The Game Theory of Nuclear Proliferation by Tyler Cowen is worth reading whole and passing along. The nub of his argument is:
When we confront an opponent with nuclear weapons, we will misread cues, signals, threats, and responses, most of all when the opponent stands outside of Western culture. They will misread us in turn. We run the risk of unintended escalation from deluded sets of leaders, noting that you need only one side to make a fatal mistake. The more countries have nuclear weapons, the more likely is such a mistake to happen, and we haven't even considered the problem of non-deterrable terrorists. That is why I view the nuclear future with trepidation.You might want to clip this and save it for the next person who tries to convince you we should continue to pay-off the North Koreans. Posted by Van der Leun at September 26, 2003 6:28 PM | TrackBack
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