July 10, 2009

How Sarah Palin Will Become the Most Powerful Republican

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Aikido is performed by blending with the motion of the attacker and redirecting the force of the attack rather than opposing it head-on. -- Wikipedia

"I can't fight for what's right when I'm shackled to the governor's seat." -- Palin

In the last week Sarah Palin has moved herself from the periphery to the center of power in the Republican party. The Party just doesn't seem to know it yet.

By resigning as the Governor of Alaska, Palin has positioned herself as the single most valuable power broker for the GOP in the 2010 elections. Simply put, in close primaries pitting Republican against Republican, and in close general elections for the Senate or Congress, Sarah Palin's endorsement and/or campaigning for a candidate can get that person elected. In addition, Palin can also raise money for a party and for candidates who would otherwise be strapped for cash. These are formidable political powers and only by freeing herself from Alaska will she be able to exercise them.


While it is true that, had she remained governor, she still would have had the power to attract crowds and energize the Republican base for the Republican cause, it would have been an effort mostly at a distance and, as a consequence, an effort of second intensity. The logistics of moving between Alaska and the lower 48 while still performing the duties of governor would have limited her involvement. Her resignation at this moment gives her time for family, to rest and reflect, raise money, organize a core staff, and still have time for a lot of quiet meetings and walks on the beach with various Republican hopefuls on the city, state, and national levels.

The question is not who among the Republicans won't want Palin's endorsement in 2010. The question is which Republicans in close contests, incumbent or challenger, would be able win without it. This raw political fact will become especially visible in the last few weeks before the 2010 polls when Palin will give a new meaning to "barnstorming."

The elections of 2010 are rightly seen as critical to the future and fortunes of the Republican Party, as well as the nation. For the Republican/Conservative cause it may very well be the last bus stop. Failure to recapture a significant number of seats in the House and the Senate in order to bring balance back to the legislative branch will be a sign that the Party's present thirst for death has been successful beyond their wildest dreams. There will be a lot of must-win and closely contested seats available as the present malaise in the economy and breakdown in the international order becomes clearer and clearer.

2010 is a make or break election for the Republicans. And the person in that year that can make and break Republican candidates is now Sarah Palin. She's not only a star, she's the only star the Republicans have or are likely to have. Love her or hate her, the Republicans must have her, and she must be available for active campaigning across the country.

And as Palin will benefit the Party in 2010, so will she benefit from any electoral victories (primary or general) that she will have had a hand in securing. Politics raw runs on money and markers. An endorsement or appearance by Palin brings crowds, commitment, enthusiasm, and donations -- not from the interior old-guard of the Party -- but from the rank and file conservatives and the center-right feminists. These people form the mass of the Party. It might ignore them between elections, but it will need their lawn signs, donations, and door-belling in the primaries and general elections. Palin can give all this --the people -- to the candidates of her choice. She can do this by simply showing up.

A retreat from the public eye for a bit will not diminish her stature but enhance her myth. Myth, as we have seen in 2007-2008, is a powerful force in elections.

What will Palin get for bringing in victory and money? She'll get what she doesn't have now -- markers. At the present time it's hard to think of any markers that Palin holds. You have to actually deliver money or victory to a politician to get a marker from a politician. If she campaigns broadly and effectively for various Republicans in 2010 she'll have a sheaf of markers going into 2012. She'll also have a core staff already tempered by the 2010 elections, most likely a book, and an enhanced myth. By the end of 2010 Sarah Palin will have become the most powerful person in the Republican Party. Palin will be, at the very least, a kingmaker, at most a populist Queen.

Her enemies in all parties may not have quite figured this out yet, but they sense it. Sensing, they fear her. And that's why the hate goes on.

Posted by Vanderleun at July 10, 2009 6:28 AM
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"It is impossible to speak in such a way that you cannot be misunderstood." -- Karl Popper N.B.: Comments are moderated and may not appear immediately. Comments that exceed the obscenity or stupidity limits will be either edited or expunged.

Just sent this off to Peggy Noonan regarding her recent column that trashes Palin:

Ms. Noonan.

If you'd exercised only a fraction of your now laser-bright skepticism on Obama - your righteous concerns about the future worthiness of the next conservative candidate wouldn't rankle so much.

You stated:

"For 30 years the self-esteem movement told the young they’re perfect in every way. It’s yielding something new in history: an entire generation with no proper sense of inadequacy."

Well, now that the rose-colored glasses are off, are you able to see how completely that comment applies to The One - that arrogant narcissist whose praises you trumpeted throughout the land?

And this?

"This is a time for conservative leaders who know how to think."

If a woman with your mental capacity was so duped by the aura and glam of Obama - the 'tingle up the leg' delight of ushering in an historic moment . . . . what hope have we for clear-headed leadership from a more nuanced thinker.

Guess I'll settle for a solid woman who knows when to duck and when to pull a trigger.


Catherine Wilson

Posted by: Cathy at July 10, 2009 7:54 AM

I've been waiting for you to give us the final word on this Gerard. You know what. That is EXACTLY the answer I gave my girlfriend the other day....And I have not followed this story because 99% of what's said was superfluous as Michael Jackson's life.

Necessity is the mother of invention and one would think based on that universal law that a conservative leader would have already emerged full blown. I mean a real firebrand, a fist pumping, spittle flinging, rabble-rouser. Someone, in a word, that would channel the energy and intention of that guy in the youtube video you posted beating a PC monitor with a bat as he utterly eviscerates the statism that we are now force fed daily. I pray Palin is that person. I fervently pray that the GOOD will wake up to the fact that it's evil twin has been on a winning streak these past few decades and that it is high time that sulphurous stink suffered some defeat. Sometimes I have wondered if GOOD was still in the game even. Justice is crying out from the very rocks for its turn.

Posted by: John P. at July 10, 2009 8:41 AM

The mark of truly superior writing is that my insatiable curiosity -- not my ideological like-mindedness, but my genuine curiosity, which is a horse of a different color -- compels me to keep on reading even though you're in the middle of belaboring the obvious.

Well done, sir. However, in your close you went above and beyond even that, and cracked the iron crust of the unknown:

Her enemies in all parties may not have quite figured this out yet, but they sense it. Sensing, they fear her. And that's why the hate goes on.

What is this ability they have, to arouse such heated passion over things they haven't systematically deconstructed and inspected component by component? Is it that this brand of hate comes so naturally to them? Is this an ability we all have, but the life-decision to feel-over-think versus think-over-feel enhances it, whereas conservatives, with their greater propensity to adhere to rules of common sense and reason, suffer from a sort of atrophy in this skillset? Is it a "fools rush in where angels fear to tread" thing? Is it a professional thing, where as pencil-pushers, bureaucrats, mediocre schoolteachers, shrinks and lawyers -- and deadbeats -- they remain safely insulated from the consequences of bad decisions, and therefore fail to respect the disciplines that are involved in avoiding them?

This is a mystery I fear I shall never figure out, even if I live to be 500. How one senses things, to the point one can react to them so heatedly, without having true understanding of them. Obviously, the cynical and phony attempts at Letterman/Stewart "humor" tie into this. But how does it work, exactly? Are these people raised from infancy by insects or something? Seriously, how's this work?

Posted by: Morgan K Freeberg at July 10, 2009 8:59 AM

They won't make it easy Gerald, more and more your two aphorisms are coming true. Christie in NJ, turning down a rally for her, without having been asked, Wolf in Va, similarly is just asking
to be 'reassigned' back to private life. And Noonan, well we saw how clueless she was last fall

Posted by: narciso at July 10, 2009 9:06 AM

Great insight. I disagree with only one thing - you use of the word "may" in reference to whether Sarah Palin will become a Republican icon. For all the reasons you describe, the Demoleftimediatainment sector will go into full hate mode against her as soon as they begin to understand what we already know. They will not be able to help themselves, as it will sell like hotcakes for a while. But by attacking her, they will make her into the sympathetic figure that no media suckup like McCain would ever be allowed to become.

She will end up with the votes of all of us who are sick of the media picking our nominees and our winners for national leadership. She will end up, whether she wants to or not, running against the media, with the promise of destroying its abusive, unaccountable power. And she will have the support of millions of us in doing so!

Someone needs to photoshop her head onto a picture of St. George holding a lance, riding on a charger, and driving the snakes out of Ireland. The identity of the snakes will be self-evident.

Posted by: sherlock at July 10, 2009 9:35 AM

The most original take on Sarah Palin's resignation yet, and also the one making the most sense. I am sick of the conservatives constantly using the word "quitter" when they haven't had to walk in her shoes. I would bet most of them would have bailed a lot sooner. Sarah Palin is a tough woman, and I think she speaks the truth in saying she could no longer do her job.

Posted by: bill at July 10, 2009 10:46 AM

I do not want a star. I want principles, not principals.

We, as Americans, should not base our politics on heroes. Our country, was founded on a proposition, not on a person. Our politics should be about ideas not personalities.

Let the liberals search for their anointed, the Won, who is the embodiment of their desire. Let them wake in the morning hungover, disillusioned, bitter, and wondering who is the rube*.

“Put not your trust in princes, in mortal men, in whom there is no help. When his breath departs, he is buried in the earth; and his powers perish as his body perished.”**

Our standard must be Our Country, Our Constitution, and the American people.

*If you have to ask who the rube is …

**Ps 146:3-4

Posted by: Fat Man at July 10, 2009 2:46 PM

That's been my hope since I heard about the resignation. I don't want her to be a candidate, I want her to be a voice, a spokesman and a central figure leading the public face of conservatism.

But make no mistake, her enemies understood immediately how potent a figure she is and will be, that's why the hateful, continous efforts to destroy her.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at July 10, 2009 2:58 PM

From your lips to God's ears, Mr. Van Der Luen.

WooHoo!

Posted by: waywardinn at July 10, 2009 2:59 PM

Meanwhile, the "smart" set are pushing Romney. Again. Wake me when he's over.

Posted by: chuck at July 10, 2009 3:43 PM

We're in agreement Gerard. Palin will indeed be Queen of the Republican party. I for one cannot wait to have her at the head of the GOP.

Posted by: Arthurstone at July 10, 2009 4:27 PM

An entire political culture is beginning to notice that twinkle in the sky that stays visible even in daylight.

The dinosaurs didn't know what an asteroid or comet was. They were too busy being huge, clumsy, and oblivious.

Oh, hi, Peggy. Sorry, didn't see you there.

It might not be Palin. But it will be somebody none of us have ever heard of, otherwise.

Posted by: TmjUtah at July 10, 2009 6:44 PM

Good post, Gerard. I found another good one last night at the blog Conservative Talk, by member Thresherman:

Much has been surmised about Sarah Palin's decision to step down as Governor of Alaska, but what I find astounding, is how much of it on the Republican side has been shaped by the media onslaught against her.

Think about it, every single opinion that we have seen or read by any GOP leaning pundit has been a response to how the media has shaped the debate about her, rather than a dispassionate and thoughtful reading of how what she did will affect the GOP.

From those who proclaim that her political career is over, (care to count how many times that has been said about those who went on to sit in the Oval Office or any other head of state? Teddy Roosevelt and Winston Churchill spring to mind, just to name a few.) or other wild speculations that need not be repeated ad nauseam.

But let us pause and look at this from an angle that might not have been so out of step not very long ago.

Palin is under an unrelenting assault from the left, the likes of which have never been seen since the return of the Vietnam Vets, a truth that they have tried to scholarly dismiss, and as such was going to have struggle to complete her term let alone be re-elected. If you doubt the effectiveness of this tactic, I refer you to how the public viewed the Presidency of George W. Bush in the election of 2008

So Palin, seeing this scenario play out again, decides that she is not going to be a party to it.

Instead of focusing on the negatives of her action, let us act like thinking adults and also consider the positives of her act.

We know that if Palin ran for Governor again, the left would pour money like there was no end into the state to defeat her and they would also file an ethics challenge on every attempt of hers to raise money to counter-act that. The plan being to either defeat her or make it impossible to raise enough money to mount a Presidential campaign, let alone govern the state.

Faced with this, no one and I mean no one, seems to realize that Palin made a very shrewd political move. Months ago she met with her Lt. Governor and carried on a set of meetings that would enable for a smooth transition of power and of a continuance of her policies after she left office.

Thus instead of being forced to either being forced to go though a re-election campaign that would have brought enormous amounts or money into a small state just to see her squashed, Palin upset the apple cart and put a new Governor in place who would carry out her popular policies and will then run as an incumbent.

With the value being placed on the amount of Governorships held, do you understand why the Democrats are screaming to the high heavens about their plan being thwarted by some yokel who didn't have the decency to graduate from an Ivy league school?

Even more so, how dare she escape the carefully laid trap that they put out for her?

But most heinous, she is now free to sue them for their attacks on her and her family and now they have to adopt a defensive mode regarding her rather than an offensive one. Now do we see why she went after Letterman so hard instead of shrugging it off as average Republicans are so wont to do?

We shall see, but I think that Palin has looked at the self defeatist attitude that seems to rule Republican politics and declared herself "Independent" of it and hence the timing of her announcement

Political pundits seem to share a common thread with sportscasters, they always seem to be caught flat footed when someone decides to not share their predicted outcomes.

Posted by: rickl at July 10, 2009 8:59 PM

rickl & gerard-

My hope is that Palin does exactly that. It may become plain in the next few months how 'done' the GoP is. I believe that it will be obvious in about 6 months. In that case, Palin is then free to approach a group like the Constitution Party with a modified platform based upon lessons learned from the TEA Party movement and the demise of the GoP. Then she and others can be free to really change what needs to be changed inside the US. I think #1 is the end of the elitist and exclusive professional political classes which are fed from the Ivy league and have absolutely NO resonance with the rest of the country.

"Throw The Bums Out In 2010 & 2012 - Reboot Congress"
Vote AGAINST the incumbents in 2010 & 2012.

Posted by: robohobo at July 10, 2009 11:36 PM

In one brief article ... all the hours and pages of blather blown to bits.

Posted by: Brett_McS at July 11, 2009 3:19 AM

I'm not sure I agree with this, but it's an interesting take.

As far as those who keep repeating the claim that the Left is afraid of Palin, that may be true on some level, but I don't honestly think that is their primary motivator. I think they are far more offended by her mere existence, then afraid of her. She's a far more suitable figurehead of the opposing side of ideology then Bush was ever shoehorned into. To them, she represents everything backward, ignorant, and uncultured, and the perfect pinata to punch around as a living, breathing caricature of an America they fervently wish did not exist. To some conservatives, I fear she's become the same thing, except as a spear to poke the other side in the eye. Because of that usage on both sides of the political divide, she's hardly the unifying figure the conservatives need to win the center in the next round of presidential elections - she polarizes far too much - by design it seems.

Posted by: Colin at July 11, 2009 5:34 AM

I woke up during the night and it occurred to me that after what Palin has endured, there is no happy ending for either the media Liberals or Palin. One has to lose, big time.
Palin, the Media and the Gestapo
Can we all agree that the Gestapo/SS has a - what can we call it – bad reputation? As the enforcers for the National Socialist Workers Party (NAZI) they handled the detail work of taking care of the Third Reich’s enemies.

How did they acquire such a bad reputation?

Before you dismiss this as a stupid question, can we agree that during World War 2 atrocities were committed by all sides? Innocent civilians were killed by all sides; that’s the nature of war, especially war with dumb bombs and unguided weapons. Both the Axis and the Allies killed their enemies ruthlessly, both openly and surreptitiously.

The reason that the Gestapo/SS is viewed as such a heinous villain is twofold. First, the Axis lost the war. If they had won, a much different history would have been written because “history is written by the winners.” Second, the atrocities that were committed by the Gestapo/SS were vicious and grotesque. Cruelty was a feature, not a bug, in their system. They were not just killing their enemies; they were setting an example to all would-be enemies. The message was: cross us and you will not only be dead, you will be tortured to death. Hurt one of us and a hundred of you will die. Threaten the Reich, and not just you but your entire family will be killed.

The “treatment” that Sarah Palin has received at the hands of the Liberal media brought the reputation issue to mind. The defamation of Palin and her family is so over-the-top, so absolutely gutter ugly, so repulsive that a point has been reached that has only two outcomes. Either Palin or her enemies will go down in history with a horrible stain on their reputations.

On the one hand you have an attractive woman, a Christian, a good governor with an attractive family who is the very image of middle America. On the other side you have – as an example – a "bareback" homosexual like Andrew Sullivan disputing the MATERNITY of Palin’s youngest child – and David Letterman whose idea of good fun is to joke about raping one of Palin’s daughters. Let’s not even go to the Camp of the Feminists who are outraged that Palin did not abort her Down ’s syndrome baby.

Keep in mind that the worst atrocities committed by the Gestapo/SS were as the Axis was losing the war. I only note this to observe that the MSM is in a death spiral the end of which is hard to discern.

Posted by: Moneyrunner at July 11, 2009 1:02 PM

Everyone here needs to recall the friggin' PRIME DIRECTIVE of American politics:

First WIN! Then do good!

Woe unto ye who sit upon "principles" or who proclaim "We can't stoop to the opponents' level"

You can ponder your fine philosophy at will in the Left's/Dems'/Progressives' re-education camps!

Posted by: Earl T at July 12, 2009 9:02 AM

Yeah, I think this story is right on the money. However, by the same token, I think Palin is angling for a position even more powerful and influential than Prez.

Namely, "Karl Rove on Steroids."

Posted by: MarkJ at July 12, 2009 5:22 PM

This article is prescient.

The MSM, Republican Party consultants, Peggy Noonan, etc. are quite quick to label Palin a quitter and hope that doing so will be enough to make her disappear from the political horizon.

Silly them.

The Republican Party is utterly bereft of leaders (or even followers (if you mean following their oaths to protect and defend the Constitution)).

It is Palin's values (not just her personality) which appeal to so many of us.

She stridently supports the values I hold dear and cares not what anyone thinks.

I concur with the poster who finds Romney (yawn) to be a dullster.

Watching the results of RomenyCare in Mass. unfold while Obama and Congress try to chart a similar national path should be enough to taint him for 2012, but that really won't be necessary because he is a lightweight.

Palin draws large fervent crowds, the type which will be winning elections after Obama and Congress have firmly fixed our nation onto the path toward financial Armageddon.

And Palin truly is the ONLY bright spot in the Republican Party.

It wouldn't bother me a bit if she dropped the Republican Party and, with the help of other Constitutionalists, forms a new Constitutional Party.

The Republican Party needs Palin more than she needs it.


Posted by: molonlabe28 at July 13, 2009 10:18 AM

Don't know if you read it this weekend, but Willie Brown gets it.

[Yup, I saw that. GV]

Posted by: newton at July 13, 2009 11:52 AM
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