Kevin L. Connors (Orange County, California) is out in front of the pundit pack at Samizdata with: " My prediction for the week"
Posted by Vanderleun at November 3, 2003 4:56 AMGeorge Bush, in the upcoming election, will take at least 45 States. To a 70% confidence factor, he will sweep all but his Democratic opponent's home State. The reasons for this are as one might expect:
Even the liberal media and Democrats in Congress are beginning to admit the war on terror overseas is going well. All the contenders for the Democratic nomination, with the exception of Joe Lieberman, who's candidacy looks quite shaky, are turning strongly away from the center. With no need to spend any money on a primary campaign at all, Bush will go into the general election with an unprecedented war chest, which may exceed $170,000,000. Bush's one possible Achilles' heel, the economy, is showing strong signs of recovery.
Haha, nice to get noticed. My second point has been regularly met by citations of that old and well respected rule of American politics: primaries are a fight for the more extreme core constituency, the center is contested in the general election. This is as true in this election as it has ever been. But there is something deeper at play here: a general shift to the left, which persists and expands, even contrary to the advice of many prominent Democratic campaign professionals.
I believe this leftward shift to be an irrational aggregate panic reaction in response the final actualization of the party's long predestined disintegration (which may take many years, or even decades, before the Jackass edifice has fully crumbled, and its remains swept on to the ash heap of history). this eventuality has been mandated by the fact that the party, as a metaphysical being, has been made up not of individuals bound together by the common threads of their principles (meta-context to use a Samizdatism), but factions and interest groups, each vying to carve of as much lard as they can manage. As generations of this vile spectre exacting it's toll on the nation have brought it to crisis, the promises made in dimly lit smoke-filled rooms can no longer be kept, and the seeds of discontent are sown.
As these seeds have gestated and festered, the panic has ensued. The Dems as individuals are either in denial, or like rats - searching out some path on which to flee the sinking ship. But they are afraid to actually depart, because the ropes only lead into the sea of liberty.
These rats fear that sea, having known nothing their entire lives other than the primping and cleaning of their Nanny-state keepers. All that swim in the sea must first endure the surface of sharks. only then can the individual reap the abundance of rewards which extends throughout the sea, from just below the surface to the abysmal depths.
For the Republicans, however, the rift which will eventually shake the party to it's foundation, if not annihilate it as well, is the ever-growing ritft, which separates libertarians from authoritarians.
-- Kevin
Posted by: Kevin L. Connors at November 3, 2003 2:16 PM"liberal media are beginning to admit the war on terror overseas is going well."
I thought I was on another planet last night, when a reporter for ABC Nightly News, reporting from Iraq. Said as much.
Maybe I only dreamt it?
Posted by: Elmo at November 3, 2003 2:19 PM
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