October 16, 2008

The Left's Big Blunder

asch_subject.jpg
Faced with unanimous agreement by the group on the wrong answer, the test subject (#6) peers at the cards, deciding whether to trust his own eyes and his own confidence, or whether to instead change his mind and trust the group's opinion, or to simply pretend to agree with the group in order to avoid conflict or rejection.

Long, detailed, and important, Zombie's The Left's Big Blunder is going to be the most important 10 minutes of reading you'll find today. Here's just one example of this informative and deftly argued essay:

Obama supporters operate on the assumption that individual McCain supporters or undecided voters will in actuality change their minds about who to vote for if they perceive that a majority of people are supporting Obama. The imagined line of thinking is, "Gee, if so many people like this Obama guy, then my impression of him must be wrong; I trust the group's wisdom more than my own impressions."
I submit that this assumption is a catastrophic blunder. To the extent that there is any conformist behavior being exhibited by McCain supporters and undecided voters, it is much more likely to be normative conformity. In other words, people who are confronted with apparent overwhelming support for Obama may indeed announce that they too support Obama, but do so only in order to avoid ostracism or accusations of racism. Inside, however, they have not changed their minds. On November 4, they will go into that voting booth, and in total privacy and anonymity, they are free to vote for whomever they want, without fear of social condemnation for doing so. And in such a setting, normative conformity disintegrates, because there is no "norm" to conform to when your vote is anonymous.
Interestingly enough, Zombie seems to have gotten an unasked for assist from Ann Coulter : EIGHTY-FOUR PERCENT SAY THEY'D NEVER LIE TO A POLLSTER
In addition to the social pressure to constantly prove you're not a racist, apparently there is massive social pressure to prove you're not a Republican. No one is lying about voting for McCain just to sound cool.
In short, it's pointless to bluff because there's no folding in Electoral Politics Poker. There's only going all-in and then holding. Posted by Vanderleun at October 16, 2008 7:31 AM | TrackBack
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Comments:

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"It is impossible to speak in such a way that you cannot be misunderstood." -- Karl Popper N.B.: Comments are moderated and may not appear immediately. Comments that exceed the obscenity or stupidity limits will be either edited or expunged.

84% say they would never lie to a pollster.
How do we know they aren't, you know - lying?

And the other 16%? Known liars - can't trust their answers either.

Posted by: Mikey NTH at October 16, 2008 7:47 AM

The final debate will be on polling day, when the mass-debaters will have their say: for better or for worse. As always we shall survive their foolishness until the next election

Posted by: Frank P at October 16, 2008 12:30 PM

As a 20-something, I can testify to the significant social pressure to support Obama and his celebrity-studded entourage. And many times, even though I know well enough that I disagree with the agenda of leftist illuminati politicians, I question my convictions because others love Obama and "he's going to win anyway." If anything, this post made me wake up to my own inner waffling, and resolve to go into the voting booth and tell the truth.

Posted by: A.B. at October 17, 2008 2:10 PM

Don't give it to him. Make him steal it.

Posted by: M. Simon at October 22, 2008 9:41 AM
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