Science Daily - Math Model Shows McCain Ahead By As Many As 27 Electoral College Votes As of September 16, the margin in electoral votes could be as high as 282.8 votes for Senator John McCain against 255.2 for Senator Barack Obama, depending on the forecasting scenario.
Main site HERE.
Posted by Vanderleun at September 18, 2008 11:31 AM | TrackBackThank you for linking that site. It seems reasonably balanced as opposed to the Dick Morris (too favorable to mccain) or CBS map (too favorable for obama).
Seems like these are the states in play with the others as bystanders: Indiana, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota.
Anyway, those are the states whose polls I will closely follow. Some folks are being whimsical about New York but i seriously doubt that the gap there can close much further.
As a lurker, I also wanted to say thanks for your thoughtful and provocative essays. I have enjoyed your sharing and hope you will continue to share your perspective on life, politics, culture, and world events.
Best to you.
Posted by: ae_savant at September 18, 2008 12:57 PMtoo bad these scientists don't take into account voter fraud and ACORN.
many folks think obama stole the nomination using fraud in the caucuses; he may very well stealo the election:
PA, MI, OH, VA, NM, IN, MO, CO, etc...
Posted by: reliapundit at September 19, 2008 8:40 PMreliapundit,
I agree that voter fraud will most likely play a big role in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. As you probably know I have been wargaming the Electoral College for the last six months and my results agree with the Science Daily one with a few exceptions.
NH, CO and quite possibly MN will be red this time around. MN may be the big surprise in this election, not Colorado. MN is frostbite bleu and for any Democrat to be within the statistical margin of error with 45 days left before the election is astounding. Obama should be running +15% ahead of McCain in Minnesota.
As to your list of states...
PA-Barely Bleu. Why? Voter fraud in Philly. The Philly Democratic party machine will raise the dead, give out free milk bones to every dog that votes, free catnip mice to every cat that votes and call in every cartoon character and superhero to vote early and vote often. You will probably see Benjamin Franklin vote for Obama 9 or 10 times on election day.
MI-In the end it will probably be bleu. Why? Detroit, Flint and the Unions.
OH-Red. Ohio has consistently tracked red in a McCain v. Obama matchup. If Hillary were the nominee it would be bleu. Obama has pulled his ads out of Ohio media markets two weeks ago, he has given up on winning it.
VA-Red. Why? Virginia has consistently tracked red in a McCain v. Obama matchup. Also, VA voters think that Biden would be the better person as president then Obama which indicates to me that they might be temporarily enchanted with the bright shiny object that is Obama but once they get into the booth and have to actually pick one they will pull the lever for McCain.
NM-Bleu. Why? Blame Californication too many "academia based" government installations for this one. The natives are outnumbered by the moonbats.
IN-Red. Why? NW Indiana will not be able to override the rest of the state.
MO-Red. Why? Missouri has consistently tracked red in a McCain v. Obama matchup. If Hillary were the nominee it would be bleu.
CO-In the end Colorado will be red. Why? A couple of factors. McCain is viewed more favorably and more trustworthy then Obama by Coloradans. Also Colorado has many more people that are like Sarah Palin and less like random_Hollywood_moonbat_living_in_Aspen_01.
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