IS WAR ALWAYS POPULAR in America? Not since the Revolutionary War. The Continental Congress had to gain support on the home front if it was to defeat the British. John Adams estimated that only one-third of the population was in favor of the Revolution at any one time, one-third was opposed, and one-third was neutral. Some of this depended upon whose army was closest.
I was out at a bar and a concert the other night. One of the party showed up, bellied up to the bar, ordered a drink and, getting it, raised his glass and said: "Here's to the 33% popularity rating." Some polite assent was noted, but I somehow forgot to touch my glass.
"I don't think popularity has much to do with it now," I said. "Getting elected may be about 'popularity,' but once you're in and can't run again it's about doing what you want with the power you've got. By my count there can't be any change in the administration or its policies until late January, 2009. I make that about three years. Three years. A lot can happen. For instance, he's got two justices on the court.
He could get a third."
A moment of glumness bloomed in the room and everyone drained their glass and signaled for another.
"Popularity." It's a nice political notion. We all learn about it in high school elections where you've got to be one of the "popular" kids to get elected. "Popularity" continues to be a part of getting elected in the professional world of politics. Nobody would contend that it does not. "Popularity" is probably the main stumbling block that stands between Mrs. Clinton and "Hail to the Chieftess." But there's a vast difference between "Getting Elected" and "Getting It Done."
In their second and last terms, Presidents are notoriously concerned with their legacy; how history will treat them. This President does not seem to be any different and it is clear that he is looking more at his legacy than even the prospects for his party in the mid-term elections. After all, they're running and he's not and Republicans' are always for putting the individual first, right? Right.
Right now, it's clear that Bush has a war to run. Is it going well? Depends on who you listen to, doesn't it? But win, lose, or draw, it is a war and it is Bush's war. Is it "popular?" As you might intuit from the quote above, the popularity of a war in the public's mind depends mainly upon the perception of winning or losing.
The Second World War was popular with the German people when their army was parading in Paris. Less so when they were being bombed in the rubble of Berlin. In between those two extremes, its safe to say that the popularity of WWII in Germany depended on which armies were close.
Americans, historically, tend to get anxious once a war goes past the three year mark. We're coming up on that in Iraq and the issue is still far from decided. As we pass the three year mark you can make book on the fact that the war will increase in unpopularity.
Fortunately, for America, Iraq, and the world's Muslims in general, a series of high-schoolesque popularity contests will not determine America's policies for at least three more years. In this, history will show that the greatest factor in determining the next phase in the First Terrorist War is that George W. Bush is not running for anything. Not even the Republicans.
Posted by Vanderleun at March 15, 2006 2:03 PM | TrackBackWell said, sir!
Posted by: trailing wife at March 16, 2006 11:16 AM"It is impossible to speak in such a way that you cannot be misunderstood." -- Karl Popper N.B.: Comments are moderated to combat spam and may not appear immediately. Comments that exceed the obscenity or stupidity limits will be either edited or expunged.